Valhalla Gnomes - Low Drop Rate - No Coins - MASTER

[Fixemixe]

I have used more han 300 flags during the Valhalla event. I have seen 2 or 3 gnomes, 0 bundles, 0 emblems and 0 coins. Kind of a joke.

[lightsmessenger]

Yea the drop rate is very low. You have to be very lucky. Hopefully your luck gets better for the remainder of the event!

[egeovannyam]

and yet Valhalla is 3 days and Atlantis is 2, cutting the benefit to players

[BlackZed]

I don’t break flasks for VF, relying on free energy mostly, unless Vf clashes with other quests that I want to do. At most, I use only 2 energy flasks.

My previous VF focused on 3WE stages mostly. Met about 5-6 gnomes on average, yielding mix of crafting mats, emblems and coins. Nothing to get exited about.

This round, however, has been more productive, probably because I am mission-farming for Goo and Teaks. I have been replaying P23-2 or P23-4 to complete that H special stage mission.

My haul of gnomes reached 12 over 3 days. The rewards have been surprisingly nice in general : enough of =>100k ham crates, 15x dragon bones, 15x coins, to make me smile. As I keep on grinding.

I am not sure if it’s because I am replaying higher stages. Or maybe system decided to be nice to me.

Perhaps you can test higher WE stages for VF in the next round, to see whether you can meet more gnomes (I am assuming that you have completed S3 yah)

[Fixemixe]

I have primarely been playing 9:2 because I read that the number of coins depends on the number of enemies, not the difficulty. Previously it has served me well but not this time.
Anyway I am just trying to find out if I am the only one experiencing this “problem”.

[Gryphonknight]

World Energy

@BlackZed

Perhaps you can test higher WE stages for VF in the next round, to see whether you can meet more gnomes (I am assuming that you have completed S3 yah)

@Gryphonknight

Gnomes and World Energy

20characters

[Dyna49]

Nah, you’re definitely not the only one. The last 2 Valhalla Forever events, I’ve gotten exactly 0 coins and I’ve pumped some serious WE into it.

[Yhc]

I remember that in AR i got my best results farming 13-1 normal.
Which would translate in some sort of saddle point between minimum energy and maximum mob number.

Note that this does take a toll on loot tickets if that’s how you farm.

[Gryphonknight]

Low drop rate VF gnome and AR dragon

Merciless RNG noise

@Yhc

13-1 normal.
Which would translate in some sort of saddle point between minimum energy and maximum mob number

Click for lots of sound, and lots of fury both signifying lots of nothing

There is so much statistical noise ( see notes ) in AR dragon, and likely VF gnome, we are unlikely to ever know the true formula

Coin / loot rolls appear designed to make it worse

Daily limit on VF gnomes makes research on live server more difficult

But SGG has gone to great length to prevent one province from standing out significantly

So much data

Rumor from beta,

no one really cared about VF gnome

But

Beta testers REALLY cared about AR dragon

Several beta testers spent a crazy amount of time, and infinite loot tickets, testing it during multiple beta releases

Many live server big spenders spent huge hoards of flasks, tickets and micro transactions, testing it

Testing tools

I would love if someone cracked the AR dragon formula

The best tool for this was the Seadragon Avatar Mission ( 100 seadragons ) but rumor says most Beta testers finished the mission during the first AR it was offered

It will be interesting if SGG skips a similar avatar mission for VF gnomes

Conclusion

The conclusion among the beta testers, and some live server math people I know,

SGG deliberately designed AR dragon ( and very likely VF gnome ) to be

Heavily influenced by WE spent

Little difference between where you spend 12 WE ( minimum 3 WE, maximum 12 WE )

Roughly 0.01666 dragon per 1x WE or 1x dragon per roughly 60 WE

Highly variable ( minimum 0, theoretically maximum of 18 per run, odds 1 in 2.337716869172e34 of 18 seadragons in one run )

Very streaky ( like scratch off lottery tickets )

Resistant to reverse engineering

Note

Click for notes

AR dragon

@Guvnor

This topic appears EVERY SINGLE Atlantis Rises…

• Every AR, the question gets asked “did SG nerf Atlantis Coins?”; “Are the Atlantis Seadragons still there?” etc…

And the answer is invariably “Yes, they’re still there”

• The drop rate is just really low… Always has been; and likely always will be… [Ref many complaints / discussion here: How rare exactly is the Atlantis Rises seadragon? (10% chance) ]

• The drop rate appears to be higher on Hard Mode compared to Easy Mode; likewise it appears a higher drop rate on later provinces compared to earlier ones.

Avatar Mission

Avatar mission requires 100 seadragons and an average of 6000 WE for approximately

0.01666 dragon per 1x WE

@From another discussion

Based on initial data, looks 6000 world energy to unlock the avatar.

Coin analysis

(How rare exactly is the Atlantis Rises seadragon? (10% chance) - #133 by Gryphonknight)

Coin records

(How rare exactly is the Atlantis Rises seadragon? (10% chance) - #145 by Gryphonknight)

Boring as a feature

Allegedly beta discussion of emblem design, but similar discussion allegedly happened with seadragons

Replace emblem path with AR stage

@Gryphonknight

Boring

Rumor from original emblem Beta, testers hypothesized, the lack of significant impact from any possible emblem paths is a design feature not a bug ( Devs did not confirm )

Last time I discussed this with some math people ( especially with the number of 5* heroes exploding ) the the only significant impact were with the below roster situations

Generating mobs

If I Recall Correctly, maximum possible is 18 mobs per run

@Gryphonknight

Example:
I got lucky with the 19 monsters for 2.25-1N, but If that stage always follows 1 Boss + 2 Mobs + 3-4 mobs x 4, then the range of 15-19 can be deduced from data without the need for large sample size

18x dragons

roughly 1 per 60 WE

12 WE / 60 WE

roughly 0.2 appear per run 2.25-1N

roughly 0.8 none per run

log0.8 / logX=18
log0.8= 18*logX
log0.8/18=logX
10^(log0.8/18)=X

0.987679660608173 none per mob

Check

0.987679660608173^18= 0.8 none per run

0.012320339391827 appear per mob

1 in 81.16659518839265 appear per mob

1 in 2.337716869172e34 for 18 appear per run

Business

@Gryphonknight

Although behavioral economics was not conceived as a F2P game design strategy, it’s a valuable tool and even a strategic advantage. As the free-to-play space becomes more competitive, monetization managers that consider behavioral economics will engage consumers more successfully. When matched with the ability to segment players and apply user-level optimization, these psychological principles also drive higher ARPU. These strategies may then be scaled efficiently through machine learning to ensure maximum engagement at each consumer touchpoint

FIN

[Gryphonknight]

Math correction

@Gryphonknight

Highly variable ( minimum 0, theoretically maximum of 18 per run, odds 1 in 1e36 of 18 seadragons in one run )

Oops

This should be

odds 1 in 2.337716869172e34 of 18 seadragons in one run

Notes

Click for notes

MATH

18x dragons

roughly 1 per 60 WE

12 WE / 60 WE

roughly 0.2 appear per run 2.25-1N

roughly 0.8 none per run

log0.8 / logX=18
log0.8= 18*logX
log0.8/18=logX
10^(log0.8/18)=X

0.987679660608173 none per mob

Check

0.987679660608173^18= 0.8 none per run

0.012320339391827 appear per mob

1 in 81.16659518839265 appear per mob

1 in 2.337716869172e34 for 18 appear per run

FIN

[Yhc]

Did you factor in, in that calculation, the actual chance to have 18 enemies in one run?
If not the figure needs adjustment

[maliciousbuthot]

Tonight I must have battled about 10 Gnomes and only 3 gave loot is that normal ? oh and after they died they stayed on the screen

[Gaberserk]

30 rounds … 0 gnomes.

■■■■ happens again.

[Wllaxy74]

Three days of Valhalla, more than 150 stages and not even one gnome!

Thank I SGG, thank I for nothing you stingy arses!

[Hellmoon]

I got one single gnome! Hurray!

I heard the gnomes are on strike!

[KeeSnow]

Very few gnomes this time round. I typically get 7-10 gnomes by farming without using any flask but only 3 this time round - two bundles + 3 barb emblems.

In any case, I am just using VF to farm for avatars so any rewards from gnomes will be considered as extra loots to me.

[JakimDaHorta]

The worst Event by far! This one should be 1 day and that was it…

Playing S3 I found… 1 Gnome!! in the middle of a lot of flasks and this is not the first time happening.

For me, No More Valhalla Forever.

[Crant]

How do I know when the little buggers will be back?

[Ruskin505]

@Guvnor

• Limited to farming 20 per day; This limit accumulates to a maximum of 60 Gnomes (i.e. start on day 3 and you can still farm 60 gnomes). There is a notice showing how if more can be farmed.

I’ve never run into the situation, but I believe the answer is tomorrow and you’ll know whether you’re limited or not.

[Dudeious.Maximus]

Well they aboot.