Upcoming Atlantis Pulls Math Help

Hey guys, I’m quite new to the forums but I was wondering if anyone could help me on some math.

I have 900 atlantis coins and I’m planning on doing a 30x pull along with a 10x pull. Now my hope is to get alby or aegir or some hopefully one of the featured heros. What’s my percent chance of pulling a previous HOTM and a featured Atlantis Hero with about 50 pulls? Any help would be great

I am not 100% sure about the percentage of availability of the featured heroes in Atlantis portal, but what you are looking for is the following formula:

A = 1 - (1 - p)^n

Where,

A = Chance of pulling an object atleast once in ‘n’ number of tries
p = probability of pulling that object in each try

For example, we know that the probability of pulling a HOTM in a single pull is 1.3% (thus p = 0.013). So that means the probability of pulling atleast 1 HOTM from a 50 pull would be:

A = 1 - (1 - 0.013)^50 = 0.4801 ~ 48%

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Does this apply to old HOTM?

Yes, this is a generic formula that applies to everything… But as I said I don’t know the exact percentage of the availability of the featured heroes (Atlantis heroes + Old HOTM) in the portal. But you can check that percentage when the portal opens and use this formula… Only the value of ‘p’ will be different. :slight_smile:

@zephyr1 Do you know the draw percentage of the featured heroes. :slight_smile:

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Yes, it’s 1.3% collectively for the four Featured Heroes.

50 Summons has a 48% cumulative probability of getting at least 1 Featured Hero.

50 Summons has a 15% cumulative probability of getting a specific Featured Hero.

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Cool. So it’s essentially the same as the HOTM… That should answer the OP’s question. Thanks a lot. :slight_smile:

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@zephyr1 Thanks so much! and thanks for your help explaining the basic formula so I can see the large picture.

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You have two very real chances and those are SLIM TO NONE

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