Trying to determine the number of global players

You’re not making any sense to be honest.

I’m sure another 11 sample points will be added over next three months for you to find your next subjective point, in your so-called professional experience.

I curious, but otherwise uninterested in the number of players. How many players are out there is of no personal concern. My monthly investment is comparable to what I spend on my movie app. I just find amateur statisticians amusing.

My god. You don’t even know the difference between an appreciating asset (ie investment) vs depreciating asset (ie expense).

No point engaging with trolls.

So if you invested 1000 bucks monthly into this game, you can sell your account for more than 12 grand? Really??

I would say “prove it” but you will say “no” followed by " Im a professional…" right?

Move on.

This owl tower I ended after impossible 1 with 706,827 points and rank 184,895

Ninja Ninja Magic Magic Styx Styx Owl Owl
Month Finished floor Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank
Nov21 Impossible 1 675312 171745
Mar22 Impossible 1 673459 141863
Sep22 Impossible 1 646021 225930
Nov22 Impossible 1 675402 199795
Jan23 Impossible 1 654052 175267
Feb23 Impossible 1 687679 240332
April23 Impossible 1 686105 176515
May23 Impossible 1 669459 177424
June23 Impossible 1 649548 158189
July23 Impossible 1 663995 147968
July23 Impossible 1 686024 189831
Aug23 Impossible 1 693805 148824
Nov23 Impossible 1 668781 180749
Dec23 Impossible 1 691162 121688
Feb24 Impossible 1 688698 119640
Mar24 Impossible 1 761051 194707
Mar24 Impossible 1 714492 177444
July24 Impossible 1 706827 184895

Raid arena cups and corresponding ranks (I find the trends interesting):

raid cups 2400 1800 1200 600 '“1“
28.11.21 279415 974575 1377498 1628978 '-
29.09.22 300028 902297 '- '- '-
28.01.23 307399 891662 1174959 1358429 1598863 (27 cups)
10.04.23 306630 880162 1156780 1334703 1620300 (17 cups)
08.05.23 309728 870490 1141466 1314137 1614517 (11 cups)
04.06.23 312534 861991 1127971 1293652 1602601 (3 cups)
02.07.23 305359 848169 1113315 1272760 1555984 (3 cups)
24.07.23 301389 838620 1098513 1253488 1526685 (3 cups)
27.08.23 299602 826450 1084627 1238741 1511058 (3 cups)
18.11.23 291906 801543 1050865 1193320 1431342
20.12.23 289091 791560 1042217 1182156 1404584
18.02.24 284915 772408 1025429 1163426 1393100
17.03.24 281401 765556 1016319 1155553 1400358
31.03.24 279331 758743 1005916 1142024 1377247
01.05.24 278843 746773 986523 1118776 1355959
31.05.24 272729 733159 968596 1101535 1363812
30.06.24 268703 718702 950176 1080531 1336045
06.07.24 267512 715475 946031 1075550 1325701

grafik

players diamond platinum gold silver bronze
28.11.21 279415 695160 402923 251480 '-
29.09.22 300028 602269 '- '- '-
28.01.23 307399 584263 283297 183470 240434
10.04.23 306630 573532 276618 177923 285597
08.05.23 309728 560762 270976 172671 300380
04.06.23 312534 549457 265980 165681 308949
02.07.23 305359 542810 265146 159445 283224
24.07.23 301389 537231 259893 154975 273197
27.08.23 299602 526848 258177 154114 272317
18.11.23 291906 509637 249322 142455 238022
20.12.23 289091 502469 250657 139939 222428
18.02.24 284915 487493 253021 137997 229674
17.03.24 281401 484155 250763 139234 244805
31.03.24 279331 479412 247173 136108 235223
01.05.24 278843 467930 239750 132253 237183
31.05.24 272729 460430 235437 132939 262277
30.06.24 268703 449999 231474 130355 255514
06.07.24 267512 447963 230556 129519 250151

grafik

player fraction diamond platinum gold silver bronze
18.11.23 20,4 35,6 17,4 10 16,6
20.12.23 20,6 35,8 17,8 10 15,8
18.02.24 20,5 35 18,2 9,9 16,5
17.03.24 20,1 34,6 17,9 9,9 17,5
31.03.24 20,3 34,8 17,9 9,9 17,1
01.05.24 20,6 34,5 17,7 9,8 17,5
31.05.24 20 33,8 17,3 9,7 19,2
30.06.24 20,1 33,7 17,3 9,8 19,1
06.07.24 20,2 33,8 17,4 9,8 18,9

grafik

In November 2023 I found a (offline) player with 1 cup that I go to since every time I update the arena ranks, i.e. basically every time there is a tower event, or kind of monthly when I feel like it.

Here’s the complete overview:

28.11.21 28.01.23 10.04.23 08.05.23 04.06.23 02.07.23 24.07.23 28.08.23 18.11.23 20.12.23 18.02.24 17.03.24 18.02.24 17.03.24 31.03.24 01.05.24 31.05.24 30.06.24 06.07.24
4000 1 1
3900 2 14 7
3800 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 31 38
3700 6 7 6 7 10 7 19 93 92
3600 19 47 19 47 42 38 75 268 266
3500 61 146 61 146 157 174 299 910 1053
3400 2 2 211 589 211 589 775 921 1599 2295 2535
3300 2 1 1 5 3 14 17 888 1831 888 1831 2183 2560 3559 4763 5001
3200 2 2 10 11 14 24 13 51 84 2729 4284 2729 4284 4849 5422 6779 8534 8773
3100 13 14 40 60 62 93 96 209 628 6361 8426 6361 8426 9509 9920 11782 14386 14599
3000 37 56 100 139 522 1217 1675 4076 5847 12591 15607 12591 15607 17070 17305 19685 23131 23436
2900 177 329 778 1994 6439 8665 10436 14102 16006 24114 27548 24114 27548 29422 29822 32453 36967 37679
2800 4614 9506 12722 15359 22302 26022 28526 33334 35876 44958 48835 44958 48835 50829 50741 53001 58464 59010
2700 33214 42917 45340 48588 56962 60745 63202 67901 71015 79721 83859 79721 83859 85349 83925 86000 91217 91495
2600 91702 103185 106102 109895 116413 119021 120408 122939 126429 132689 134903 132689 134903 135980 133376 133798 137502 137976
2500 186851 193835 196639 200443 201028 201013 200540 199229 199920 202775 201665 202775 201665 200973 199465 197035 197483 197210
2400 279415 307399 306630 309728 312534 305359 301389 299602 291906 289091 284915 281401 284915 281401 279331 278843 272729 268703 267512
2300 412557 410225 411952 412929 404353 398402 393456 380096 375838 365158 360271 365158 360271 355951 353738 346617 338599 336560
2200 517604 513539 513421 511678 502053 494634 489380 471884 465040 449093 442001 449093 442001 437262 432710 424810 412623 410613
2100 621009 616588 612841 611435 600192 592240 583733 563884 555810 536502 528944 536502 528944 522567 514999 506856 493074 489257
2000 723446 715213 709869 709403 692610 684372 674403 652143 644084 623327 615109 623327 615109 608728 600390 589561 574225 571618
1900 813135 801651 794073 786689 773197 764829 754340 730010 721074 701813 693615 701813 693615 686969 676806 664977 649702 648333
1800 974575 891662 880162 870490 861991 848169 838620 826450 801543 791560 772408 765556 772408 765556 758743 746773 733159 718702 715475
1700 952789 941545 929607 921102 906872 896850 885146 859036 849014 830733 823430 830733 823430 815568 801440 787671 773481 770411
1600 1006180 991685 978005 971307 959471 947676 935313 906233 897511 880732 872930 880732 872930 864190 848749 834039 818772 815694
1500 1051663 1037343 1024659 1016047 1004311 991385 979019 948988 939074 923570 914450 923570 914450 906513 889774 874352 858364 854739
1400 1096753 1080877 1067285 1055818 1044366 1031172 1017807 983274 977101 961194 952496 961194 952496 942336 925749 909431 892440 888798
1300 1137462 1120154 1107546 1092357 1079609 1066108 1053092 1019954 1010929 994808 985944 994808 985944 975499 957334 939860 922135 918300
1200 1377498 1174959 1156780 1141466 1127971 1113315 1098513 1084627 1050865 1042217 1025429 1016319 1025429 1016319 1005916 986523 968596 950176 946031
1100 1207173 1187470 1170656 1156623 1141347 1126583 1112244 1077552 1068631 1051710 1043012 1051710 1043012 1031768 1011578 993578 973972 969978
1000 1238859 1218012 1200389 1185615 1168472 1152481 1138524 1101945 1093122 1075965 1067130 1075965 1067130 1055645 1034874 1016031 996188 991822
900 1268743 1248743 1227999 1213341 1194874 1179234 1164069 1125380 1116256 1098697 1089769 1098697 1089769 1077350 1056046 1037171 1016963 1012625
800 1297849 1277849 1258286 1240547 1222046 1204344 1189401 1148685 1138957 1120882 1111967 1120882 1111967 1099175 1076598 1057457 1038244 1033356
700 1327899 1305654 1288184 1267597 1246639 1229551 1214884 1171527 1161098 1142445 1133797 1142445 1133797 1120840 1097726 1079660 1058992 1054049
600 1628978 1358429 1334703 1314137 1293652 1272760 1253488 1238741 1193320 1182156 1163426 1155553 1163426 1155553 1142024 1118776 1101535 1080531 1075550
500 1382722 1362179 1340687 1289429 1276912 1261431 1214170 1202895 1184029 1177139 1184029 1177139 1163138 1140088 1123593 1102112 1097057
400 1410175 1388921 1367919 1345488 1319739 1300743 1284791 1234998 1222723 1204243 1198767 1204243 1198767 1184334 1161881 1147164 1124820 1119511
300 1439338 1417929 1395910 1371805 1344731 1322272 1310355 1256051 1243244 1225498 1221820 1225498 1221820 1207058 1185753 1172060 1146998 1143940
200 1468381 1449066 1426013 1369157 1347962 1330811 1277369 1264193 1247687 1246010 1247687 1246010 1231008 1210596 1199303 1175724 1169295
100 1497332 1474741 1452504 1421898 1392899 1371095 1353067 1297214 1283146 1269921 1270838 1269921 1270838 1255560 1234736 1224744 1201157 1194911
1 1431342 1404584 1393100 1400358 1393100 1400358 1377247 1355959 1363812 1336045 1325701
3 Likes

Maybe another, perhaps quick way to estimate the number of active players could be to apply a range on your current RT rank.

Currently I am rank 205,842 at top 50%

This means, 205,842 is in the range:

  • Top 50% <= 205,842 < Top 25%

Which is:

  • 411,684 <= number of active players < 823,368

Taking the mid point as a neighborhood reference, then the number of active players must be in the neighborhood of 617,526

Seems also to align with Zed’s previous post too.

2 Likes

Latest before I started using flags.

Participation usually higher for 5* RT.

3 Likes

Previously we were still around 630k?

Declined a wee bit from last month. 5* RT usually gets higher participation cos some players only stock 4/5* in their rosters.

1 Like

That shows a recent 2% - 5% decline. I am still expecting to fall below 600k after the next couple of sessions- maybe 609k then 597k by August month end.

622k for this current RT feels a correct assessment. I’m ranked 290k and still in top 50%. I’m expecting to fall into top 75% today as I fall past 311k - supporting the active count of 622k

1 Like

Believe me, I know the difference.

You don’t have to you use childish language because you’re mad I pointed out flaws in your work.

Your current data set is insufficient for the kind of questions you are trying to answer. You also have the problem of clustered data. I suspect that you have no idea what the problems of clustered data are.

You put a bunch of numbers into a spreadsheet and ran some summary stats and spewed out the answer. You did this without an appreciation for the robustness of the underlying data and whether it was a suitable data set for the question being posed. It happens all the time and is easy to see through by an experienced statistician.

Please don’t continue to tag me, this isn’t worth my time. But here is a tip for the future. When you are dealing with time series, try an ln transformation as it often helps clarify relationships. Not always, but often.