The assumption is full 100 per existing warband. As long as the assumption is followed for all calculations, the ballpark number derived is more reliable.
If I allow for this or that, the basis for each ballpark number is no longer consistent. Therefore, any comparison has less value.
The number for W3K is to track estimated participation for that event.
It is not intended to depict that number as the number of actual active player base for the game. This number is known only to Zynga.
Without inside information, any guess is not reliable.
That’s why the numbers shared here only apply to that specific event.
Now if participation for that event declines over time, and this pattern is seen in other events too, then it is possible to conclude that the player base has declined as a whole.
If it’s only that event, it just means that the event is losing popularity.