Top 100 Alliances War Results

Yup, I saw looking at a few which is why I was thinking at our current 145k we have a high chance to match VS one

We got matched VS 7 days emerged, will be interesting to see lol

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Top 100 War Results
War Ended January 20, 2022
War Effect: Undead Horde #2

The average score of the Top 100 alliances this war was 7,004, down slightly from last war’s 7,014. Undead Horde continues to not only be the highest scoring war effect with a 7,035 average score, but it is the war effect with the most consistent average score each war.

As we climb up the Top 100 ranks, winning scores typically started at 7100 and climbed to above 7500+.

There wasn’t much movement in the Top 10 ranks, with Team Korea back up to #2 after a short visit to #3. Kobyer slipped a spot from #2 to #3.

In the war of heavyweights, #2 Team Korea defeated #5 The Avengers by 877 points.

#1 7DD, #3 Kobyer and #4 Last Regiment each defeated their #6 - #10 opponent by a comfortable margin.

Of the seven wars won by the lower ranked alliance, three were upset wins. Hats off to #72 Союз Конфедератов, #86 Shadow of Blade and #107 Last Regiment Warriors.

#6 KM4 defeated #116 Dirty Dancers, a 110 difference in ranks between the two alliances. That’s the second largest rank difference on record, with KM4 fighting at 29 after a defeat.

Within the Top 100, there were only two wars decided by less than 100 points, which may be a record low. #72 Союз Конфедератов’s upset win was by 63 points, while #30 Высшая Лига held off #38 Final Exodus by a mere 11 points.

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War Ended January 23, 2022
Top 100 War Results
War Effect: Arrow Barrage #1

74 wars were reported, including 47 of the Top 50 and 87 of the Top 100.

The average score of the Top 100 alliances this war was 6,664, not far off the 6,660 average for Arrow Barrage.

The average margin of victory between ranked alliances was 517, on the high side of the 474 average for this war effect.

Arrow Barrage typically has the closest wars, with Undead Horde being the next most competitive war effect with a 500 average score difference.

Making strong moves up in the rankings were #79 Dragons of the North (up 19 spots), #72 be like Water (up 13), and #35 Esprit de corp & #84 Teletubbies, both up 9.

There were two intra-Top 5 wars, with #1 7DD narrowly defeating #3 Kobyer by 53 points, while #2 Team Korea held off #4 last Regiment by 482 points.

In other Top 10 action, #8 The Last Legion held on to defeat #10 The One Family by 101 points.

Of the seven wars won by the lower ranked alliance, only one was an upset win. #70 Palm-Fiction thumped #44 Abusement Park, winning by 358 points.

Within the Top 100, there were five wars decided by less than 100 points. Besides 7DD’s narrow win, #41 Final Exodus (38 points), #55 Die scharfen Chilis (96 points), #56 DIE LOGE (24 points) and #80 S우리다시시작 Start over (44 points) held off their opponents.

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War Ended January 27, 2022
Top 100 War Results
War Effect: Arrow Barrage #2

77 wars were reported, including 47 of the Top 50 and 88 of the Top 100.

The average score of the Top 100 alliances this war was 6,650, down 14 points from last war’s average of 6,664.

In the rankings, Team Korea regains the #1 spot due to 7DD’s Dec. 19 win over The Avengers falling outside the 10 war ranking period. A bit further down the rankings, The One Family falls out of the Top 10 (down to #12), replaced by Aggressive Old Stars at #10.

Rogue Assassins had the largest increase in rankings from the prior war, up 35 spots to #52. Other notable increases were Night Whispers (+13), Palm-Fiction (+8), Seven Days Condemned (+7) and The Legends (+7).

In the one intra-Top 5 war, 7DD defeated The Avengers by 344 points.

In other Top 10 action, #9 be Water was victorious over #10 Aggressive Old Stars, while #6 KM4 held off an always tough #13 СИНДИКАТ. Lastly, #11 SErotonin has shown it can defeat higher ranked alliances, and they did so again with a 257 point win over #7 7DA.

Of the nine wars won by the lower ranked alliance, only one was an upset win - #104 Korea Refresh’s 271 point win over #87 be like Water.

Within the Top 100, there were five wars decided by less than 100 points. Scrapping by with a 1 point win over #63 Oceano Pacifico was #61 Die scharfen Chilis, followed by #54 DIE LOGE’s 16 point win and #15 Greek Frappe’s 19 point win.

A few weeks ago a “At War Cap” column was added to the war recap for each alliance. That data point provides additional insight into a war that may not be intuitive at a glance. For example, if neither alliance is fighting at its war cap (i.e., neither has a “Yes”), then they have the unfortunate luck of facing an equally strong alliance two wars in a row.

As an example from this war, Legends of the North was defeated in last wekeend’s war, but instead of being matched against a weaker opponent (i.e., an opponent with a “Yes” a war cap), they were paired against an equally strong Dead men tell no tales who had also lost last weekend. End result, a second loss in a row for LOTN. A similar story for 6th_Sense.

But eventually the mistmatch will occur and SG gets the balancing that it wants. That was felt by #83 바람‿✿, who had the misfortune to be matched up against #21 Gipsy Danger. GD was down two war tiers while 바람‿✿ was at its max war cap. End result was a 1,924 victory.

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War Ended January 30, 2022
Top 100 War Results
War Effect: War Equalizer #1

68 wars were reported, including 45 of the Top 50 and 77 of the Top 100.

The average score of the Top 100 alliances this war was 6,898, down 19 points from the last Equalizer war.

In the rankings, 7DD regained the #1 spot going into this war due to its win over The Avengers last war. However, that will be short lived as Team Korea is posed to step back up to #1 going into next war.

The Last Legion moved up to #7 after 7DA’s defeat to SErotonin last war.

In top 20 rankings, #12 Aggressive, #15 7DH and #17 Impulsive each moved up 2 spots from last war. Further down the rankings, #73 Inviolable jumped a massive 32 spots, with other notable jumps being #42 DIE LOGE (+12), #88 UA Union (+11) and Quantum Legend (+11).

In the one intra-Top 5 war, Team Korea defeated Kobyer 7,593 to 6,554.

Of the nine wars won by the lower ranked alliance, two were upset wins. #91 The Incognitos over #57 Русский Шквал by 49 and #116 Last Regiment Warriors by 267 over #77 Home Run.

Within the Top 100, there were five wars decided by less than 100 points. #27 FastKill held onto win by 7, while #28 Moon Star held off a near upset by #68 Simbiose (72 points). Also avoiding a near upset was #34 Bimbi Sperduti Divini, who defeated Dragons of the North by 95 points.

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Thanks for the likes. My main audience for these are on Line, but I wanted to post here for a while to see if there was much interest from others not in the alliances that participate in providing the data.

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Yeah, thanks for sharing Beezzer, I do care about the results, I don’t join the Line group so don’t have access to the data before you posted here

I really appreciate your posts. Even though it’s probable I will never get in a top 100 alliance (and at the moment I also am not interested in it), it’s interesting for me to look at it and understand the war dynamics for the game at the point where every alliance has very good players.

I also love your commentary and I hope you will keep it up

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War Ended February 3, 2022
Top 100 War Results
War Effect: War Equalizer #2

67 wars were reported, including 46 of the Top 50 and 82 of the Top 100.

The average score of the Top 100 alliances this war was 6,848, down 50 points from last war. That’s on the lower side for Equalizer wars, but not unreasonably so.

In the rankings, Team Korea reclaimed the #1 spot from 7D, with those two alliances matching up against each other. In a close 173 point war, #2 7DD battled its way to a win.

7DD and TK have fought five times, with 7DD now holding a 3-2 advantage. 7DD’s margin of victory in its three wins is 406, while TK’s margin of victory in its two wins is 434.

Breaking a drought, The Avengers scored their first win against a Top 5 since their win over 7DD on November 25. #5 The Avengers defeated #4 Last Regiment this war by 335 points.

#6 KM4 was removed from the rankings due to excessive wars at less than 30, causing a bump up for the rest of those outside the Top 5.

In other closely ranked Top 20 matches, #6 TLL came from behind for a 142 point win over #7 7DA, while #14 Quantum Knights [OKS] held off #20 Gipsy Danger with a 209 point win.

In the middle rankings, there were a few closely ranked matches with the higher ranked alliance winning each of those. #41 BAMBA defeated #42 Final Exodus by 503 points, while #47 ОдАрЁнНыЕ held off #49 Unleashed by 387 points. And finally, #52 Casinha do Lobo Mau took care of business against #54 Abusement park with a 438 piont win.

We had three upset wins in the Top 100 this war. #39 Esprit de corps scratched out a 67 point win over #28 Mixed Nuts - Extra Spicy, while #58 Palm-Fiction defeated #37 Badass Inc by 310 points. But the largest upset of the war was #67 Союз Конфедератов, who defeated #43 DIE LOGE by 697 points despite having a 2,750 lower max war score.

Aliances significantly increasing their rankings were #30 King of the North (+13), Naughty Nightmares (+12), UA Union (+12), Dead Men Rises (+10), #112 LA GREEN TEAM (+10), #70 Night Whispers (+10) and #92 Seven Days Emerged (+10). And the largest decrease in the history of rankings went to the Tower of Ninjas alliance who dropped to the bottom of the rankings and then some due to not opening the door on time.

Next war effect is Attack Boost, which is the second highest scoring war efffect with an average score of 6,937 for the Top 100. As a general guide, expect to score 7K+ to have a shot at a win.

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I still remember the beating seven days emerged gave us, still hurts to sit

You were likely 7DE’s opponent after they had one or more losses. If that was the case, then you were severely overmatched if they were fighting a “drop down” war.

SG has put heavy rails in place to keep alliances close to a 50/50 record unless an alliance is going through a period of strengthening or weakening relative to other alliances near its war score or if the alliance is at its war cap. Due to the amount an alliance’s war score changes after a win or loss (~2,500 points for the Top 100, excluding wins at the war cap), mismatch wars are common. Presumably SG does that to avoid the discontent that would come from alliances experiencing extended losing streaks, but the trade off is frequent swings in war mismatches.

7DE is a perfect example of this. On Nov. 14 when ranked #51, 7DE lost to #28 Rivoluzionari. No surprise given the lopsided pairing. 7DE’s next war was against #116 die Auserwahlten. An unsurprising win with the lopside going the other direction. Followed by a loss to #44 (finally a reasonably competive war), followed by a win against #111.

So of those four wars, there was only one war between alliances with similar war scores. I hope they don’t mind, but here’s their record which most of us can relate to.

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Doesn’t hurt they also had a record offensive score VS us lol

War Ended February 6, 2022
Top 100 War Results
War Effect: Attack Boost #1

75 wars were reported, including all 50 of the Top 50 and 89 of the Top 100.

The average score of the Top 100 alliances this war was 6,977, which is the highest we’ve seen for Attack Boost since October.

Despite 7DD defeating Team Korea last war, TK retained its #1 ranking going into this war. They are 6-1 against the Top 5 during the 10 war ranking period, including a 335 point win over 7DD.

#2 7DD is 4-1 against the Top 5 during the ranking period, including a 173 point win over TK.

The Avengers moved up a spot to #4 thanks to their win over Last Regiment last war, while be Water reached its highest rank yet at #7 due in part to #6 TLL’s defeat of the now ranked #8 7DA last war.

Looking at Top 10 wars, #4 The Avengers continue their comeback with back to back wins against the Top 5 with a 182 point win over #3 Kobyer.

Narrowly avoiding both an upset and back to back losses was #5 LR holding off #12 СИНДИКАТ by a razor thin 26 points.

In their only two prior wars, #6 be Water defeated #11 The One Family in both wars (guess where this is going). Finally getting their revenge, The One Family defeated be Water this war by a respectable 289 points.

And finally, winning by 588 points was #9 Aggressive Old Stars over #8 7DA.

Of the 12 wars won by the lower ranked alliance, 5 of them were upset wins. An upset win is a win by a lower ranked alliance whose max war score is at least 800 points lower than the max war score of its higher ranked opponent.

Facing a 1,993 point max war score disadvantage was #69 Dragons of the North, who pulled off the largest Top 100 upset by defeating #45 Badass Inc by 317 points.

#41 Ukraine Love, #81 7DE, #107 Dracula’s Angels and #114 Quantum State also overcame long odds for wins.

There were numerous double digit wins this war, with #81 7DE’s 10 point upset win over #43 Esprit de corps and (soon to be ranked) Save the Earth’s 10 point win being the two closes.

Also experiencing some good karma was #28 Mixed Nuts and their 22 point win over #67 Simbiose (a near upset loss for Nuts), #5 LR (26 point win) and #107 Dracula’s Angels (34 point win), among others.

Alliances significantly increasing their rankings include #97 LA Green Team (+15), #53 Inviolable (+11), 7DE (+11) and Palm-Fiction (+8).

LA Green Team joints the Top 100 after jumping an incredible 25 ranks over two wars.

The threshold to be tracked for purposes of ranking is now a maximum war score of 150.0K.

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War Ended February 10, 2022
Top 100 War Results
War Effect: Attack Boost #2

70 wars were reported, including 44 of the Top 50 and 75 of the Top 100.

The average score of the Top 100 alliances this war was 6,938, in line with expectations.

First, a recap of the state of the Top 10.

Starting with the Top 5, Team Korea and 7DD are currently the top two alliances in the game, with no other alliance holding the #1 or #2 spot since January 16. While a gap has emerged between those two alliance and other three Top 5 alliances (The Avengers, Kobyer and Last Regiment), no war is certain when any of those five alliances are involved. That being said, neither TK nor 7DD have lost to any alliance other than each other since Dec. 12 when LR defeated 7DD. But the gap between the Top 5 alliances and every other alliance remains.

In the #6 to #10 range, there has been more parity and with that more movement within the rankings. Seven Days Ascended and The Last Legion have generally held the two ranks after the Top 5, but 7DA lost all four of its competitive wars in the last month. That has caused it to start falling in the ranks.

And though TLL had won all of its wars against non-Top 5 alliances, seemingly solidifying its #6 rank, it lost this war to SErotonin. SErotonin, in addition to beating TLL, also beat 7DA and will break into the Top 10 going into next war. For those actually reading these recaps, SErotonin was the #6 / #7 powerhouse for quite a while before falling a bit behind the alliance power curve and out of the Top 10. And now they’re back!

Other alliances holding Top 10 ranks, including be Water, Aggressive Old Stars and The One Family are still working to solidify a Top 10 ranking. And just when you think Top 10 rankings have settled down, KM4 and Aggressive have the potential to shake things up when fighting 30/30. And worth mentioning is СИНДИКАТ, while typically not ranked in the Top 10, has the firepower to upset any higher ranked opponent.

A quick commentary on maximum war scores. New heroes and aethers fueled increasing maximum war scores throughout the year, accelerating mid-year. The very top alliances jumped from less than 150K in August to almost 159K now (7DD and TK). But their increase has slowed to a crawl over the last month, signaling that their transition to new heroes and aethers has reached maturity. The pace of war score creep of lower ranked alliances has also slowed, but not as much. Alliances are compressing to the new norm now that the power houses have reached the current soft ceiling.

In wars between closely ranked alliances, the lower ranked alliance generally won. That included #9 SErotonin defeating #6 The Last Legion, #10 Aggressive over #8 Aggressive Old Stars, and #20 Gipsy Danger coming out ahead over #14 Impulsive.

A bit further down in the ranks, #32 Xtreme Fury overcome #31 Dead men tell no tales and #43 Ukraine Love defeating #35 BAMBA, as well as #80 TELETUBBIES pulling off a 50 point win over Hungarian Doom Bears

The few closely ranked wars won by the higher ranked alliance were the exception, with #17 Wolves of the North defeating #19 Sanada Maru, #70 Simbiose holding off #74 Bulgarian Rebels, and that’s it. All other matches had a rank difference of 7 or more.

There were eight wars won by the lower ranked alliance. Of those, none were upset wins. Extremely unusual.

Within the Top 100 wars, only four were decided by less than 100 points. In addition to #80 TELETUBBIES’ 50 point win, there was #76 Chat (by 60), #60 Die scharfen Chilis (by 65) and #58 Oceano Pacifico (by 81).

The 653 average difference in scores is the highest we’ve seen for Attack Boost and reflects the limited number of close wars.

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War Ended February 13, 2022
Top 100 War Results
War Effect: Rush Attack #1

67 wars were reported, including 45 of the Top 50 and 74 of the Top 100.

The average score of the Top 100 alliances this war was 5,822, in line with previous Rush scores.

Continuing their dominance, #1 TK and #2 7DD each defeated their Top 5 opponent.

After defeating 7DA and then TLL, SErotonin climbs back up to the #6 spot, while #8 be Water barely hung on to defeat #12 Quantum Knights by 91 points.

There were five wars won by the lower ranked alliances. Of those, only one was an upset win. #51 Toxiland defeated #29 Dead men tell no tales by 194.

The margin of victory in Rush wars is the highest of all effects at 819 points. That’s 263 points higher than the next highest war effect (Equalizer at 556).

In wars between ranked alliances since September 1, the underdog (defined as the lower ranked alliance that has a max war score of 2K or more below the higher ranked alliance) wins about 9% of the time.

If we break that down by war effect, there are fewer upset wins in Rush (5.6%) wars than in the other war effects. Attack boost has the highest win percentage for the underdog at 11.9%.

However, upset wins against alliances in the higher ranks are much, much harder to come by. Of 183 mismatched wars where the higher ranked alliance was a Top 15 alliance, the lower ranked alliance won none of those. And if we add on the next rank tier, (#16 - #30), only 2 out of 159 wars were won by the underdog. So, for the Top 30 ranked alliances, only twice out of 342 attempts did the lower ranked underdog win.

The win % for the underdog climbs to 8% against the #31-#50 alliances, and finally to 24% against the #51-#100 ranked alliances.

Upset wins by war effect - Sept. 1, 2021 forward - #1-#100 alliances - ranked wars
Upset by effect

Upset wins by rank tier - Sept. 1, 2021 forward - #1-#100 alliances - ranked wars
upset by rank

Average margin of victory by war effect - September 1, 2021 forward - ranked wars only
margin of victory

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Thanks Beezzer for the detailed report!

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I cannot help thinking this is linked to how many players have some particular heroes, especially Alfrike.

Thank you again for the interesting analysis and report!

The percentage of upset wins in Rush wasn’t that far off from a few of the other effects. What sticks out more to me is that Attack Boost appears to be more prone to upset wins than the other effects. That I can’t explain, though the data set is still fairly limited. I’ll dig a bit further and see if the result is the same for periods prior to September 1.

Also, my explanation of the percentage of upset wins by Rank Tier isn’t correct (though the data is correct). I’ll revise and clarify later, but in short, the chart is showing the rank of the alliance that won the upset and not the rank of the alliance that lost. So a Top 5 alliance, for example, wouldn’t have any upset wins as shown in the chart.

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