Top 100 Alliances War Results

I have been following these for some time and appreciate the hard work. However, this one defies logic.

For the first time an alliance beat the previously 1# ranked alliance (by a sizable margin) and not only didn’t rise but they dropped in rank. Basically aggressive’s small win over avengers is being valued higher than GDs win v Korea or avengers win vs GD. This is within the confines of “last 10” criteria. The last 10 criteria often seems to be selectively applied. By that I mean historical performance basically locks in 7DD and TK, but groups beyond that get no benefit from historical performance. Those likely are the 2 best groups, but even if last ten says otherwise, as it did at times for Korea late in 2022, they get a historical bump. This is fine, but feel 3rd to 5th gets no similar benefits.

-GD has beaten Avengers in 5 of the last 6 meetings between the two groups.
-GD has never lost to aggressive (won both meetings)
-GD has won 2 of the last 3 v team Korea
-In the last 6 months GD has two losses total outside of 7DD and TK. A July loss to the old 7DA and a December loss to Avengers. TK similarly has 2 in this time period where aggressive and avengers have considerably more.

No matter you slice it, historically or last 10 these ranks just don’t make sense. Even if completely ignoring history, GD over TK and avengers over GD are better wins than aggressive’s 70 point win over avengers. Again, GD beat 1# then lost rank.

I hope all is well, have a good day.

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Thank you for your comments, and your opinion / ranking is just as valid as mine.

To clarify a few points. My apologies if it appears that the “last 10 criteria often seems to be selectively applied.” I have used that criteria from the beginning through now for all alliances with only one exception.

The one exception is when it became apparent that TK and 7DD were in a tier of their own and only battling each other for the top spot. After consulting with both alliances and with their buy in, I started ranking those two alliances on a winner take all basis.for the #1 spot. Not only did that make sense, but it increased the stakes for each of their wars. But with TK’s recent loss to GD, that changed the dynamic and I removed that exception.

Your points seem geared more towards a historical perspective of Top 5 wars. From that perspective, I agree.

Solely from a 10-war perspective, you note that GD defeated TK and The Avengers. If that was the case, then easiliy GD would be ranked ahead of The Avengers. However, GD’s win over The Avengers was the 11th war back (Nov. 24) and therefore not included in the 10-war period. Not sure if that would change your view or not.

So in the 10-war period, each had one Top 5 win: Avengers defeated GD, Агрессивные defeated Avengers, and GD defeated TK.

Therefore, to put GD ahead of The Avengers would require logic along the lines of even though GD lost to The Avengers, they should be ranked higher because they defeated someone else that’s higher than The Avengers. I’m not saying that’s an unreasonable position, especially with how much respect I give to their win over TK.

But that’s not where I ended up.That win will likely impact the ranking, just not at this point during the ranking period.

And I completely agree it’s counter intuitive that GD defeated TK, yet fell a rank. I try to highlight it now and then, but the 10th war falling outside the ranking period can be just as important, or more so, than the most recent war being added. In this case, GD’s victory over The Avengers that fell outside the ranking period was enough to offset their win over TK for purposes of deciding their rank in comparison to The Avengers.

I posted the war history for each of the Top 5 that I based my opinion on in order to be transparent. Bottom line, it’s an opinion that changes every 3 to 4 days, so please don’t take it personally and cast any hexes on me.

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I think you accidentally replaced the image that should go on this post with the updated war recap. The image here was the alliance rank for 2022.

You’re right. Fixing it…

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For grins, here’s a comparison of ranks from the Jan. 2, 2022 recap to this Jan. 1, 2023 recap.

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Ha ha I promise I will not cast any hexes or spells. So after clarifications you presented, all historical stuff thrown out, I would still state the following:

It basically comes down to 3 matches, GD over TK, Avengers over GD, aggressive over avengers. In my view, especially given the margins of victory, the aggressive win is the least impressive. Another way to put it, is that winning a tier up is currently worth less than winning with in a tier. While I understand why head to head is a major factor, currently there is little incentive to winning a tier above. In our case even facing Korea essentially hurts us cause a win does very little and a loss is just a missed opportunity to face a peer opponent. Throwing out all historical results, aggressive has the weakest resume of the 3 teams imo.

Anyway I know it was a hard rank to decide. The irony of a GD player also indirectly sticking up for avengers is not lost on me either. Hopefully we draw aggressive soon and can make your task easier lol.

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Beezer… Once u had told me “if u want to impress everyone go and beat TK or 7DD”
So… We did it two times in a row and seems that instead of making a good impression we got “spanked” and even lost one rank :sweat_smile:

So from the way u are explaining to us how u calculate the top 10 ranks is like there is no point in fighting DD or TK. Beating them does nothing for us and them losing only changes from 1 to 2. Right? So what is the point ? Lose or win is same result. Always.

I have a feeling that the theoretical analysis of the formula sometimes… has no practical application.

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I mean bar massaging egos does it actually matter?

Beezer does it for a bit of fun. He likes doing it for reasons of his own. Where anyone is ranked is opinion since the only people who could rank you (that’s SGG in case you’ve missed it…) chose not to.

So you can call yourselves number 1 in the world if that makes you feel better?

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Thanks for explaining why Beezer does this and for putting the others in their place. Very helpful

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You may not like it but @Cheds is only paraphrasing the “small print” on @Beezzer essays :slight_smile:

sorry I am too lazy to look it up for you, but if you do, you will find a bit that says something like: “if you disagree with the ranking, yours is right an mine is wrong”

The ranking is only partially based on data, it is not claiming to be the only possible ranking either. The weight given to the various fact(or)s is just a personal opinion and you can have whatever opinion you like. If you think your own alliance is better than the others, there is no reason not to think so, noone can proove you wrong. If you were the one putting in the work to put all this together your opinion would be the one presented on the OP.

Thank you so much for explaining cheds post and Beezer, again, to me. Unbelievably helpful

You are most welcome. Let me know if you need me to explain anything else to you.

I’m here to help those that need it most after all.

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Yes that is what you do. Thanks again

Top 100 War Results
War Ended January 5, 2023
War Effect: Undead Horde #2
Next War Effect: Arrow Barrage

No commentary on wars from this recap, but I did want to touch upon a few items regarding ranks.

I appreciate the interest and passion in The Avengers vs GD rank as discussed above. To take subjectivity out of the equation, I went with a “heads / tails” approach this war for those two alliances using a United States quarter. For those not familiar, an explanation is here [link].

I’m not sure I did it correctly as there appears to be some controversy whether or not the coin should be caught after being flipped. And I’m a bit confused by the outcome. I’m still educating myself on this methodology, but please know that I will re-flip next recap if I didn’t do it correctly.

Агрессивные now has only two Top 5 wars in the ranking period, so they fall back to #5.

It’s a jumbled mess starting at rank #9 and below, so I’m only “hand picking” the Top 8. #9 and below are formula ranked.

The number of alliances fighting below 30 continues to be significantly above average. Therefore, I’m being looser than normal before I unrank an alliance.

Formula ranking blah blah - The formula that I use is designed to rank the vast majority of alliances within a reasonable range. To repeat what I’ve said before, it’s not intended to be so accurate that I would argue #25 is stronger than #28. They’re likely similar in strength, but both notably stronger than the #38 alliance.

That being said, my caveat was it works ok for the vast majority of alliances. But there are exceptions, which are those alliances that simply dominant alliances with similar max war scores and that are capable of beating higher tiered alliances. Past examples include Ковчег, The 강한, etc. The ranking formula attempts to take that dominance into account by adjusting upwards for upset wins, but even that has limitations.

Typically the issue with alliances in that situation is they don’t match up against higher ranked alliances. That results in an unknown whether they could in fact defeat stronger alliances, which would justify an even higher rank.

For a while that was the issue with SErotonin. They beat all opponents, but they never fought Top 10 alliances and usually fought alliances ranked #15 and lower. So I didn’t feel like I could justify putting SErotonin in the Top 10 back then, though I was confident they would prove themselves as a Top 10 if given the opportunity.

The alliance that is currently most adversely impacted by the limitation of the ranking formula is СИНДИКАТ (“Syndicate”). Even thought the formula results in their rank being around #20 despite having the #39th highest alliance war score, rank #20 still doesn’t accurately reflect their war strength.

Then this war happened, and I realized that СИНДИКАТ should be the exception to the exception. Not only have they maxed out their rank under the formula with massive winning streaks, but they are frequently matched up against and defeat even higher ranked alliances. Those include STOK, Quantum Knights, and going back a bit further KM4, Royal Flush, Ako Jiken, and Greek Frappe.

Then this war they defeated #10 Wolves. Including СИНДИКАТ’s win 2 weeks ago against #10 STOK, this is their second win over a #10 alliance with a handful of Top 20 wins. Their only loss in the last five years (slight exaggeration) was to then ranked #11 The One Family, which is a Top 10 strong alliance.

So because there are actual wars and victories to justify it, including this win against #10 Wolves, I will be ranking СИНДИКАТ at #10 next war l. That will be the case even if I continue to use the ranking formula for #9 and lower.

Greek Frappe might be saying “what about us?” The difference is the formula worked well enough to drive GF’s rank down to the low teens and now to #12, which is a higher rank than all of their opponents. So without wins against even higher ranked alliances, GF is capped. Not to mention that as awesome as they are, they had a loss this war that works against them being ranked even higher.

War recap:

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Top 100 War Results
War Ended January 8, 2023
War Effect: Arrow Barrage #1

Just the war recap this time.

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Top 100 War Results
War Ended January 12, 2023
War Effect: Arrow Barrage #2
Next War Effect: War Equalizer

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Top 100 War Results
War Ended January 12, 2023
War Effect: War Equalizer

91 wars were reported, including 49 of the Top 50 and 93 of the Top 100.

Average score this war was 6,767. That’s the lowest average for Equalizer since the defensive nerfs that were implemented during summer of 2021.

avg

Five wars were won by the lower ranked alliance. #28 Moon Star, #36 Unleashed, #48 ALBA DEI 30 DI BIMBOZZA and #103 Die Anstalt. And finally #12 СИНДИКАТ defeated #9 STOK by 150, which is technically (but not surprisingly) an upset win.

I continue to only rank the Top 7 alliances by actual war results, with #8 and below (with an exception for СИНДИКАТ) ranked by formula.

Performing well in defeat was #85 Quantum Legend, #105 Seven Days Uprising (came with 51 points of an upset win) and unranked Guardians of Romania II.

Other close wars included unranked Тайный Легион [TL] coming within 53 points of defeating #78 BAMBA Twist and #36 Союз Конфедератов winning by 94 over #54 Seven Days Emerged.

The Союз Конфедератов versus 7DE war is one of those that’s a bit deceiving. Both alliances have very similar max war scores of approximately 165K, which is about 50th highest of ranked alliances. So on one hand, a peer war.

But Союз Конфедератов (Union of Confederates) is on a winning streak and is ranked #36 due to its 8-2 record coming into this war (and 12-2 over the last 14 wars). Their only two losses were to the #24 and #25 alliances, and one of those was by only 121 points. So 7DE was fighting an uphill battle, but came very close to a quasi-upset win.

The above chart is a good example of how winning streaks can impact an alliance’s rank. Союз Конфедератов would be ranked around 54 if its win / loss record was close to 50/50. But because of its winning streak, it’s ranked in the mid-30s.

In a (recorded) first, Aggravated Hellhouse and Aggravated $tRait MurKin had an intra-alliance war. The underdog wasn’t able to overcome the odds, with #33 $trait Murkin winning by 514 over unranked Hellhouse.

I’d like to briefly shine the spotlight on the Swedish alliance Naughty Nightmares I. This alliance was ranked around #100 a year and a half ago, and entered 2022 at #83. Since then they have grinded their way up the ranks with a typical history of wins and losses. They broke into the Top 30 in October, then finally into the Top 20 on January 5. Quietly, but powerfully, ranked #15 / #16 these last two weeks, in line with their #15 rank based on highest max war score of ranked alliances.

You may already know that Alucard is a great anti-M&M hero.

But did you know Alucard can be spelled backwards for an unexpected suprise? Ok, maybe I’m easily amused. Credit to Uclapack’s video from this war (who in turn credited Siradia) for making me feel foolish for not realizing this sooner.

There continues to be an above average number of alliances at less than 30 (tough recruiting times). Therefore, I continue to be a bit more lax on both unranking and re-ranking alliances. Typically 120+ alliances are ranked, with another 7-10 working their way to being ranked. For this war, 115 alliances were ranked with 8 more alliances waiting to hit 5 war scores before being ranked. An additional 11 alliances are currently tracked but unranked due to excess wars below 30.

War recap:

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Hahaha I would say you are :smiley: You are a bit late, but of course you are excused, being busy with more important business! I do remember the discussion in November if it was funny or not… I don´t remember if the consensus was funny or silly in the end.

But if you enjoyed this one, try a certain yellow minion slayer colleague of this guy for some fun. I have been told it is actually somewhere between inappropriate and racist (I am not good at political correctness, so I dare not judge), but I guess not enough people have complained about it to make SG change the name yet :wink:

Or for a less controversial one try the (supposedly) Orc half of this months cutest couple!

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Top 100 War Results
War Ended January 19, 2023
War Effect: War Equalizer

Just a few comments.

#1 Team Korea defeated #2 7DD for the second time in a row. The 289 point win was very close to the average margin of victory between those two alliances.

In the seven wars won by the lower ranked alliance, three were upset wins. #105 Aggressive II, #107 LEGACY and #109 Rise of the Empire defied the odds and beat their stronger opponent. The first two won by less than 100 points, while #109 Rise of the Empire won by a solid 550 points.

Two alliances came close to an upset win. #40 Unleashed fell short by 297 against #14 Wolves of the North, while #93 TEMPLE OF LUST lost by 262 to #59 Ring of Honor.

And in very close wars, #95 Malice in Blunderland scored twice as many points as needed in its 2 point victory over unranked Night Whispers. By comparison, #32 Esprit de corps sailed to an easy 7 point victory over #34 CHAT.

Unranked Palm-Fiction fought unranked BLACKMAGIC.

As tempted as I am to stop there and not state the obvious, out of an abundance of caution I’ll spell it out. The leader of Palm-Fiction is Black Magic. And their opponent was… Yes, I continue to be amused by the little things.

After a spike in tracked alliances fighting at less than 30, things appear to be returning to the status quo. This war there were 21 alliances fighting below 30, compared to over 40 two weeks ago. For comparison, there were 24 tracked alliances at less than 30 on Nov. 15 (an arbitrary date because I’m too lazy for further analysis of this).

I had ALBA DEI 30 DI BIMBOZZO in my data incorrectly as “BIMBOZZA” and didn’t see the comments about correcting that. Until now! My apologies.

Average score this war was 6,866, very close to last war’s average of 6,838.
avg

Proving that my colorful screenshots are only entertaining to me, I covered in my last recap how the 6,767 average for that war was the lowest for Equalizer in about a year and a half. But because I wasn’t able to spell Equalier correctly, that average was actually from the Dec. 15 Equalizer war and not Jan. 15. That’s been corrected in the above screenshot.

And since I’m grading myself, I failed to update the date at the top of the last recap.

And I’m sure I had a 53 typos, give or take.

War recap:

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Top 100 War Results
War Ended January 22, 2023
War Effect: Attack Boost #1

Skip way down if you want the war stuff.

I haven’t changed alliances very often in my E&P life. But after tracking and writing about the Top100 alliances for two years, I decided it was time to go visiting.

I spent seven months last year in eight different alliances, ranging from two weeks to two months each. Three alliances were ranked #80 to #120, one was around #40, and the other four Top 10. Seven were English speaking, one was not.

For those interested in my experience, specifically the similarities and differences between the Top 100 alliances (and in general), here you go.

In game chat: First, and a bit surprisingly, what jumped out to me as having the most impact on how I viewed each alliance was the frequency of in game chat. At one extreme, a few alliances would hit the 50 message limit very quickly. Keeping up wasn’t possible unless you checked in every few hours, if not every few minutes. Great for those looking for immediate conversations.

At the other extreme, a couple of alliances had relatively little chat. Pretty easy to catch up on chats for that day, but not a great fit for those looking for frequent in game conversations. However, one of those alliances merc’d a lot, and in game chat was mostly a spam of members coming and going. They made up for it with a ton of chat outside the game. The other alliance just had a lot of non-talkers.

Most alliances were in between. Checking in 2 to 3 times a day was usually enough to keep up, with occasional exceptions of message spam depending if the chatty members got going or not.

Titans: Laugh or cry, members overhitting titans was the single most common similarity among the alliances. It’s amazing how often I saw “oops, I had a cascade” on a third flag when they were already close to the cap. Alliances had limits ranging from 160K to 200K, usually coupled with a time limit (e.g., don’t kill until X hours remaining). Most tigthtened down on rare titans, with a few putting some sort of reward / punishment system in place for rares.

That being said, there was one alliance that didn’t seem to have a limit, at least not one that was ever clear to me. But they merc’d a lot and didn’t seem too concerned about loot restrictions. Their main titan rule was don’t kill until everyone had hit. In contrast, another heavy merc’ing alliance calculated to the minute the “don’t kill by” time for each titan in order minimize loot restrictions.

So bottom line, I experienced titan overhitters across the Top 100 range, from #3 to #120.

Wars: I could write a book on this, but I’ll try to keep it short.

Within the Top 100 there is a wide range of player benches, and even within each alliance there is a noticable range. The difference as you move up the alliance ranks is that range within the alliance shrinks.

The most common war strategy was clean your own with soft kills for phase I and FFA after the mid-point.

But a few alliances still employed two waves then FFA, usually against equal opponents. That maximizes kills of weaker teams, but with a trade-off of less time available for FFA.

One alliance was unique in two ways. They went with a quick reset followed by soft kills to start the war, and instead of a clean your own they use a flag allocation system (i.e., a designated number of oneshots / cleans for each member based on prior war history).

To state the obvious, the higher the alliance’s rank, the greater the overall spend among members. But for those thinking about joining a Top 100 alliance, there are members within the Top 100 who are now spending little to nothing. Continuing to spend isn’t necessary to securing or keeping a spot on a Top 100 alliance, especially further down the ranks.

To oversimplify, four things matter for war as you move up the ranks. Troops, heroes, attack team composition, and tile play.

Troops and heroes equate to time and (mostly) money. No avoiding that. Alliances get pickier the more competitive / higher ranked they are. Level 23+ troops are generally needed to get into a lower ranked alliance, while multiple sets of 29 troops (including mana troops) needed as your move up the ranks. Lower ranked alliances are less likely to look at rosters, while higher ranked alliances will scrutinize rosters for troops and specific heroes before extending an invite.

Attack team composition - Game knowledge and practice. A huge difference between the top players in the game (regardless of their alliance rank) and everyone else is how much time they spend practicing. Often times they are testing synergies among heroes, but also perfecting attack teams against specific defenses (i.e., M&M & WP). Practice matters.

Tile play - I can’t overemphasize the importance of this. I spent time with and fighting against the very top alliances. I learned two things. First, I’m not that good. Average, if I’m generous. Second, tile play matters just as much (and arguably more so) than heroes and troops. If you think RNG determines the outcome of a match, top alliances aren’t going to be a good fit for you. And yes, that includes Rush wars.

The best advice I walked away with is to study the opening board. Closely. Consider every possible move and the likely follow-up move. How do I increase the odds to turn around a poor board, to upgrade a marginal board, and how not to mess up a great opening board? If you move within the first 30 seconds, there’s a good chance you overlooked something. Record your match even if you’re not going to share the video. It forces you to slow down a bit.

And finally, be thoughtful on all moves. Even the best players in the game miss moves that are obvious when reviewing videos. But the best players minimize those oversights. Fight the urge to move too quickly during the match when the board is extremely favorable or unfavorable.

Money (i.e., troops and heroes) will get you into a higher ranked alliance, but it’s your tile play that will keep you there.

War rooms on Line for two opponents to share war hit videos was somewhat common at the Top 20 level, but rare below that.

Last comments. The non-English speaking alliance I was in was a great experience. Most of their chat was on Telegram, which has an in-app translator that greatly helped being a part of the alliance. And I learned how to translate in-game chat using screenshots.

For those thinking of joining an alliance that speaks a different language, my advice is to give it a try. It is more work, some things simply don’t translate well, but it’s a very unique way to experience other cultures within the game. And it can provide a few laughs along the way (I kept wondering why my foreign alliance kept talking about “slippers.”) That being said, foreign alliances aren’t for everyone given the extra effort it takes to translate, and even then not fully understand some conversations.

Now for that war stuff…

95 wars were reported, including 46 of the Top 50 and 91 of the Top 100.

Average score was 6,841, pretty close to the two Attack Boost wars from the last cycle of 6,842 and 6,823.

vg

Here is the average by war effect, by rank Tier. To no surprise, Rush is by far the lowest scoring war effect at 6,045, followed by Arrow Barrage at 6,575. What is suprising is that the other three war effects (Attack Boost, Equalizer, and Undead Horde) have nearly the same averages. That differs from the prior two years where there was a bit of a difference between averages. We’ll see where that stand after another cycle.

effect

This war #2 7DD defeated #4 Агрессивные by 837, while #5 The Avengers grabbed a 452 point victory over #3 GD.

These two alliances match up about once a month, with each war hard fought.

Going into this war, The Avengers dropped to #5 due to their win against GD on Dec. 15 dropping outside the ranking period coupled with Агрессивные’s win against The Avengers on December 29.

Six wars were won by the lower ranked alliance, and of those one was an upset win. #83 HARDCORE defeated #66 Jericho’s Revival by 268 points.

Three alliances performed well against stronger opponents. #29 Ukraine Love nearly pulled off an upset win against a Top 10 alliance, coming within 40 of defeating #9 Quantum Knights.

#60 7 ГНОМОВ fell by 256 to #30 굿길드, while #97 Malice in Blunderland needed 241 more points to defeat #58 Helios.

In a great matchup between two equals, #24 NEMEZISS defeated #21 Seven Days Hunting by 98, while a bit further down the ranks in another close war was #74 die Auserwahlten pulling out a 38 point win against unranked Gulf Hawks.

Another notable war was unranked Palm-Fiction (excess wars below 30) defeating #11 Wolves of the North).

And finally, unranked Jo Seon scored a massive 8,619 points against unranked Glory to Ukraine. I’m not sure what defense GTU ran, but it was as much of a mismatch as you could expect. Jo Seon is a Top 10 alliance if they fought at 100, while GTU is well outside the Top 100. So while it’s an attention grabbing score, I won’t be including it in “official” war stats. Jo Seon’s 8,619 points was the second highest recorded score, behind infernales’ (also not counted) 8,706 against Warriors of the North’s whimsical Christmas defense.

War recap:

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