Thank you, Oli.
As a bit more color to the rankings, the purpose of this was to provide insight into relative war rankings of alliances that typically war against each other with 30 teams and to identify a “Top 100” that has more meaning than SG’s leaderboard rankings.
If an alliance has too many wars at less than 30 teams, they are not included in the rankings. That’s not to say they aren’t a Top 100 in terms of strength (e.g., Last Regiment), but instead they’re not within the scope of what I’m trying to rank. Also, I don’t include an alliance in the rankings until they have 5 scores in the data set.
The ranking (“War Rank”) is based on an alliance’s 10-war average alliance score, which is captured before the end of each war. While there are occasional blips up and down in rankings due to war matchups, over time it generally works out where alliances are ranked where they should be relative to their peers. It takes into account wins and losses, and the level of competition that an alliance is fighting at. Approximately 130 to 150 alliances are being tracked at any given time,
When alliance score don’t make sense, which occasionally occurs when an alliance is sitting out a member or two for war, I can determine the approximately correct score by looking at the score before and after the current war. In addition, I’m usually able to track down war results of the Top 100, which gives me another data point to confirm accuracy of questionable alliance scores.
For those in the Top 100 who often are fighting at their war max, the rankings are surprisingly accurate. 77.4% of the time the higher ranked alliance will win when matched up against a lower ranked alliance.
However, there are tiers even within the the highest levels. To be a Top 50, Top 20, Top 10, etc. alliance is a huge accomplishment. But even at those levels there are notable differences in alliance war strength. The #5 alliance (Tier 3), for example, is not at the same level as the #4, #6 or #7 alliances (Tier 2).
So as additional insight, I have recently started to rank the very top alliances based on “War Tiers.” That’s the first column in the first chart, where so far I have ranked the first three Tiers (9 alliances so far). Regardless of their current War Rank, it is their War Tier that I would pay attention to in regard to how strong they are at war. The War Tier is based on a review of war results against other alliances.
Alliance scores are meaningless for the Top 3. The Avengers, Kobyer and 7DD are in a class by themselves. It is them, then everyone else. So for purposes of rankings, I use their heads up wins / losses against each other over the last 10 wars to rank them. Over the last few months, each of those three alliances are 50/50 against the other two. About as even as it can be.
And finally, this is only my view of the Top 100. If your ranking is different, yours is right and mine is wrong.