I have skimmed through most of the posts regarding the Raid Tournament, and would like to share some inferences. I acknowledge the inherent self-selection bias of drawing on the player pool that frequents and posts on the forum, but I think we can get pointed in some interesting directions anyway.
Everyone who has posted a log so far has shown their first opponent offered 300 points for a victory.
I did not track the absolute lowest value in every post, but my attack log shows a 221. I’m sure others can beat that, but it is reasonable to conclude that the lower bound is substantially below 300.
As I write this, the top player has a score of 1653. So the upper bound must be at least 330, and is probably quite a bit higher.
1302 Total Points
A lot of posters are reporting this score, with some claim a conspiracy (it is unclear to me what nefarious machinations or purpose this would imply). It makes sense that a lot of posters would be in the fat part of the bell curve.
Number of Entrants
My score is 1388. Around 12pm UTC that was good for a spot in the 25-50% loot tier. A few hours later I noticed my tournament rank was in the high 400 thousands. Then, around 4pm UTC I saw it had changed to the 50-75% loot tier, while my rank was nearing the mid 500 thousands.
As I crossed the 50th percentile and knew about what my rank was, it feels reasonable to conclude that there were approximately one million attackers by 4pm UTC. Note that the number of entrants could be substantially higher, as this doesn’t take into account those who had not yet attacked.
Your Opponents 1
My score log is:
300 (team power 1941)
302 (team power 2533)
289 (team power 2761)
276 (team power 2524)
221 (team power 2159)
I thought I would get progressively harder opponent after each win. That clearly did not happen (whether judging by points offered or team power). Other logs I’ve seen seem to corroborate this.
Also note that there appears to be no correlation between team power and point value. There must be some other dynamics here - perhaps the defense team being devalued by each defeat.
Your Opponents 2
It is random. But I think not in the sense of, ‘here’s the total player pool, and you get matched with a random opponent.’ I faced five very weak defenses. It was the same for my SO. Numerous others here on the forum had the same experience. My defense (of fully leveled four stars) has not yet been attacked. That’s quite the parlay if everything were simply random.
Here’s what I think may be going on: all defenses are sorted into buckets, perhaps by team power. Everyone is given random draws from within an appropriate bucket.
For example, here on day 1 we are facing the weakest bucket.
SGG would be incentivized to do this so everyone can have a good start and not be frustrated. The tournament wouldn’t be much fun if a lot of people drew four really hard teams and were immediately eliminated. So it makes sense that people are reporting fighting three star heroes, two stars, and even trainer heroes.
Perhaps on day 2 we’ll see an uptick in difficulty. Maybe maxed three stars and four stars at 3.60 will be common (I’m not saying the teams will ONLY consist of those heroes - rather that that team composition would provide a total team power appropriate to this bucket).
Then on day 3 maybe we’d see maxed four stars.
Day 4 would perhaps bring a bucket dominated by emblemed teams.
Attack Early or Late?
Some are already speculating that, if they attack later, there will be greater bonuses associated with the teams they draw. That’s possible. It also seems possible that most / all teams in the bucket will get devalued (if that is actually a dynamic the tournaments employ), such that they are more likely to draw teams that offer fewer points. I don’t know.
I am getting pushed back in the rankings, though I’d guess that has more to do with the increasing number of players using their flags than those players getting higher point value targets.
We clearly need more information on this; in the meantime, make your best guess. Personally, I’m happy enough having slotted 25 heroes into my hero chest without burning any raid flags. I’ll probably fill that chest three times today, which is a nice perk.