Theorycrafting the Raid Tournament

I have skimmed through most of the posts regarding the Raid Tournament, and would like to share some inferences. I acknowledge the inherent self-selection bias of drawing on the player pool that frequents and posts on the forum, but I think we can get pointed in some interesting directions anyway.

Attack Points

Everyone who has posted a log so far has shown their first opponent offered 300 points for a victory.

I did not track the absolute lowest value in every post, but my attack log shows a 221. I’m sure others can beat that, but it is reasonable to conclude that the lower bound is substantially below 300.

As I write this, the top player has a score of 1653. So the upper bound must be at least 330, and is probably quite a bit higher.

1302 Total Points

A lot of posters are reporting this score, with some claim a conspiracy (it is unclear to me what nefarious machinations or purpose this would imply). It makes sense that a lot of posters would be in the fat part of the bell curve.

Number of Entrants

My score is 1388. Around 12pm UTC that was good for a spot in the 25-50% loot tier. A few hours later I noticed my tournament rank was in the high 400 thousands. Then, around 4pm UTC I saw it had changed to the 50-75% loot tier, while my rank was nearing the mid 500 thousands.

As I crossed the 50th percentile and knew about what my rank was, it feels reasonable to conclude that there were approximately one million attackers by 4pm UTC. Note that the number of entrants could be substantially higher, as this doesn’t take into account those who had not yet attacked.

Your Opponents 1

My score log is:
300 (team power 1941)
302 (team power 2533)
289 (team power 2761)
276 (team power 2524)
221 (team power 2159)

I thought I would get progressively harder opponent after each win. That clearly did not happen (whether judging by points offered or team power). Other logs I’ve seen seem to corroborate this.

Also note that there appears to be no correlation between team power and point value. There must be some other dynamics here - perhaps the defense team being devalued by each defeat.

Your Opponents 2

It is random. But I think not in the sense of, ‘here’s the total player pool, and you get matched with a random opponent.’ I faced five very weak defenses. It was the same for my SO. Numerous others here on the forum had the same experience. My defense (of fully leveled four stars) has not yet been attacked. That’s quite the parlay if everything were simply random.

Here’s what I think may be going on: all defenses are sorted into buckets, perhaps by team power. Everyone is given random draws from within an appropriate bucket.

For example, here on day 1 we are facing the weakest bucket.
SGG would be incentivized to do this so everyone can have a good start and not be frustrated. The tournament wouldn’t be much fun if a lot of people drew four really hard teams and were immediately eliminated. So it makes sense that people are reporting fighting three star heroes, two stars, and even trainer heroes.

Perhaps on day 2 we’ll see an uptick in difficulty. Maybe maxed three stars and four stars at 3.60 will be common (I’m not saying the teams will ONLY consist of those heroes - rather that that team composition would provide a total team power appropriate to this bucket).

Then on day 3 maybe we’d see maxed four stars.

Day 4 would perhaps bring a bucket dominated by emblemed teams.

Attack Early or Late?

Some are already speculating that, if they attack later, there will be greater bonuses associated with the teams they draw. That’s possible. It also seems possible that most / all teams in the bucket will get devalued (if that is actually a dynamic the tournaments employ), such that they are more likely to draw teams that offer fewer points. I don’t know.

I am getting pushed back in the rankings, though I’d guess that has more to do with the increasing number of players using their flags than those players getting higher point value targets.

We clearly need more information on this; in the meantime, make your best guess. Personally, I’m happy enough having slotted 25 heroes into my hero chest without burning any raid flags. I’ll probably fill that chest three times today, which is a nice perk.

8 Likes
Nope. Fix this. This is totally absurd- Bug, Tourney points totally :poop:
I'm confused about raid challenge scoring
:medal_sports: [June 30, 2019] 11th Raid Tournament! — 5* Bloody Battle, No Ice/Blue
:medal_sports: [June 23, 2019] 10th Raid Tournament! — 3* Rush Attack, No Holy/Yellow
:medal_sports: [June 16, 2019] 9th Raid Tournament! — 4* Buff Booster, No Ice/Blue
:medal_sports: [June 9, 2019] 8th Raid Tournament! — 4* Bloody Battle, All Elements
:medal_sports: Raid Tournaments – Overview, Attacking, Matchmaking, Scoring, Restrictions, Special Rules, and Rewards
:medal_sports: [May 21, 2019] 6th Raid Tournament! — 4* Buff Booster, All Elements
:medal_sports: [May 7, 2019] 5th Raid Tournament! — 5* Buff Booster, No Nature/Green
:medal_sports: [Apr 30, 2019] 4th Raid Tournament! — 3* Rush Attack, All Elements
:medal_sports: [Apr 22, 2019] 3rd Raid Tournament! — 5* Bloody Battle, All Elements
:medal_sports: [Apr 9, 2019] 2nd Raid Tournament! — 3* Buff Booster, All Elements
:medal_sports: [June 2, 2019] 7th Raid Tournament! — 5* Rush Attack, No Ice/Blue
:medal_sports: [Aug 4, 2019] 16th Raid Tournament! — 3* Buff Booster, No Fire/Red
:medal_sports: [July 28, 2019] 15th Raid Tournament! — 3* Bloody Battle, All Elements
:medal_sports: [July 21, 2019] 14th Raid Tournament! — 5* Buff Booster, All Elements
:medal_sports: [July 14, 2019] 13th Raid Tournament! — 5* Rush Attack, No Holy/Yellow
:medal_sports: [July 7, 2019] 12th Raid Tournament! — 4* Buff Booster, No Nature/Green

I’m going to reserve this, just in case.

How did you get 30 heroes with 5 tourney flags?
Unless you already had 5 in there at the start…:thinking:

lol - you are right, I will correct my post. I think it’s because I’m accustomed to getting 30 right off the bat from my full raid flags.

20 just wonderings, lol :wink:

It would be very reasonable, if you think about it. I’ll quote myself from another thread:

So bucketing the defenses into 25% tiers, and gradually attacking the lowest percentile on Day 1, then higher percentile Day 2… up until the highest percentile Day 4. Adding some order into what would otherwise be a rollercoaster of randomness. A lot suggests that it is happening, but people are so overreacting about this entire launch being a fiasco that it is difficult to coordinate to pull big enough sample to confirm that is correct or not. I guess we have to wait until Sunday to see for ourselves.

1 Like

@IvyData

Why are you making sense? If we don’t understand something we’re supposed to get mad! Grumble, grumble, grumble!

4 Likes

I too had 5 really easy fights.
Too easy, something not even funny.

In beta i already stated this kind of scoring rely too much on luck for rolling the right opponent, and i’m afraid this not gonna go better as people which lose 4 battles has still their defence in place for all the duration of the event.

I’m not even complaining about scoring, but bullying unlevelled 2* and 3* with multiple epics is not exactly my ideal raid.

4 Likes

I think everything you have compiled makes perfect sense and lines up with what we’re seeing in our alliance as well. We’re all eye-balling our weakest member to see if/when he starts getting attacked because so far none of our 30 members have been hit on defense.

…I only wish I knew (or even thought) that I could get a 25 hero head start on my raid chest with the tourney wins. I was so excited to see it that I simply blasted away before I skipped the timer on my raid chest. Dumb. :frowning:

1 Like

I did not track the absolute lowest value in every post, but my attack log shows a 221. I’m sure others can beat that, but it is reasonable to conclude that the lower bound is substantially below 300.

Mine 281, 60 points more and it was a super easy battle. Idk why I got that many points.

LOG:

Fight 1: 300pts, TP—2598

Fight 2: 289pts, TP—2002

Fight 3: 300pts, TP—2502

Fight 4: 281pts, TP—2396

Fight 5: 335pts, TP—2868

I have no Idea how SG is deciding who is worth more points.

Ended this round with:

2 Likes

Mine was almost exactly the same. 5 easy wins (not complaining lol because I’m sure it’s going to get harder) but my defense team shows no attacks yet?? All of my alliance says the same. Do the attacks on your defense only show at the end of the raid day??

2 Likes

Enemies visibly more difficult today… About 2600 TP on average, and a lot of decently levelled 4 stars. Still won all 5 but it was a bit more challenging. That would confirm my theory…

1 Like

Hmm, I won all 5 matches in the first round, and this was my first matchup for Day 2:


Definitely not visibly more difficult for me.

1 Like

Well yesterday it was unlevelled 2 and 3 stars with occassional trainer. So it is still an improvement. Ofc not a challenge still when you have maxed stacks.

I am trolling with 4 healers and Wu for defense this time around.

I wonder how fun it would be. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

N my first match up was 1200tp against my 3500tp… So no it is not better today

Yeah of today’s 5 battles I faced 1 maxed 4*, the rest was a combo of maxed 3s and unfinished 3 and 4s. Not difficult at all.

Has anyone here been attacked?

You did the same thing I did and searched for a 6th opponent on the first day. I suspect this gives you a weak opponent for your first battle of the 2nd day because it’s already locked in (same as regular raids). If so, this seems like a bug… One that’s exploitable to gain a slight advantage but that can also hurt you if done by accident (like happened to us).

3 Likes

I have not yet been attacked. I am concerned this will effect the total amount of points I could be achieving.

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