The Odds Aren't Really Good Enough to Try Very Hard

Casino is a good analogy. I even think of supermarket (for groceries) and department stores (for shopping). How many times people end up spending more than they planned when going to those places. That’s the paradox of choices. You can never satisfy with what you already have and will keep looking for more.

Congrats on your Boldtusk… I don’t know when you will start dreaming about another one though. :smiley:


I completely agree with your position

Thank you for your input. I always appreciate your intelligent posts on this forum.

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You’re very nice :blush: But as I said, it’s pure speculation, although I’m developer myself, I can’t say what algorithm they use to generate random numbers.

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That’s why they say “Don’t go shopping at the Supermarket when you’re hungry.” I think the research showed you will buy 30% more than usual, if you are hungry.

If I go to a Summon Gate, hungry for x hero, desperate to “win” them, I may spend more than I might normally.

So I am on an iTunes card diet. I can’t spend more than what’s on the card ($15, $20, $25). When it runs out, that’s it. I’d best get some good gem deals for my cash, and then spend/spin wisely from there, KNOWING that RNG is involved. :wink:


Two things:

  1. If we can agree that there are trolls out there who say that they pulled so and so (Guinevere or whoever) on their second pull when it didn’t actually happen, can’t we agree there are also trolls that inflate the amount of money they spend to make their case seem that much more miserable when they whine about it on the forum? Despicable and immature but absolutely within the realm of possibility.

  2. Spending money on this game is like spending money on a dinner out or a movie. What tangible result do you have after doing that? A memory or two of a nice meal, or how bad that movie was. Are the memories generated by enjoying playing with your new heroes any less valid?

(Devils advocate: Personally, I would answer the final question above with a yes—time spent with friends and loved ones face to face and the resultant memories are ALWAYS better than those created by playing a game, even one like Fallout 2. My kids won’t remember the time they spent playing Geometry Dash—but they remember every moment of the trip to Utah we took last year, or the 2-day screenless camping trip we took a few months later. But we aren’t everybody.)

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Nope, Fallout 2 memories are above all :wink:

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Speaking from my own experience, while I have invested little in the game apart from low cost specials and extra builders, I shared the thought that the odds of getting decent 5 stars were minuscule and was not myself willing to punch out the coin to purchase a 10 pack of epic hero tokens.

I have found that with patience the hero tokens you earn for rewards eventually luck out for you, and also that training camps sporadically (1 5 star for every 10 3 star hero; maybe 1 or 2 4 star heroes …

I’ve given up trying to get specific heroes that would be my favorites and appreciate the challenge to work with what I have and discover different combinations to use the ones I have for Titan battles etc.

Looking forward to season two and hanging onto the epic tokens I have now to try to grab some of the new heroes.

Good luck everyone

Good and fair and reasonable post DontBlink but in all fairness, I just wanted to say that I am a larger spender on the game (I think), and not a millionaire, but definitely have spent waaaaaay more on this game than any I’ve played previously, and when everyone complains about odds of specific heroes being low, that hasn’t been the case with me. Unfortunately, I have not tracked this formally, but off the cuff, I’d say that I get roughly one 5* per 3-4 10x pulls. I have had 1 case where I got 2 5* event heroes and a HOTM in 1 10x pull. During July, I spent roughly $500 and ended up with over a dozen Gregs and ended up feeding all but 5 of them to himself (because it’ll be fun as hell to run a 5-stacked team of all Gregs in a war just to give the other team a laugh). I spent some of those gems on other things but guess I did roughly 13-15 10x pulls. A similar thing happened with Drake. (And the reason for so many pulls/money is that I’m new, and want to start with a quality team to build up and help my awesome alliance asap)

So anyway, I am all for the devs loosening the odds but I can’t be the only one out there of the gobs of players of this game who is getting decent pulls.

If you want to know MY personal rant, it’s the shortage of top leveling unfarmable MATs. I have heroes who have been sitting maxed at 3* for a long time now and there should be a way imho - not to buy these because the way it is levels the playing field and is at least one thing that isn’t a PTW model - but to increase the odds to get hidden blades and orbs and such. Mystic Vision hasn’t given me anything but 1 axe attack and 2-3 gems for over a month, seriously…

PS I do not in any way work for SG, I just wanted to share real world experience and I hope I don’t jinx my apparently really good luck.

Cheers to all who actively play and care so much about the most fun game I’ve played so far!



Yeah, you did much better than the average odds would give.

Things like Hidden Blades and Orbs get much easier over time. Eventually it will be the much more rare 4* ascension items that you’ll be chasing. Once you reach a certain point, the 3* ones (such as blades and orbs) come much more easily.


This is exactly why many have decided to quit spending, too. It’s like SG wants to push the c2p-players back to f2p.

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Personally I hate the loot box system. I recognize it may have increased the amount of money gained even by small sw houses and let them create better and better games at a faster rate, although I don’t like the way that money is gained, more precisely the percentage coming from people who simply can’t control their purchases on gambling systems.
By the way, in about 16 months of playing I’ve made some purchases too that add up to more or less 1 dollar / month, and now I think I’ll stop spending altogether.

The reason why I did some purchases is that I’m enjoing the game, it entertains me so I think it’s fair to pay for it. I’m a developer myself and I know how it can be frustrating when most people think that the outcome of your work is worth nothing and should be available for free to everyone (this is a more common position then you might think, just think how many softwares you own because you purchased them and how many you cracked).

The reason why I’ll stop spending is that I think 15-20 bucks is a fair amount for a game with still several bugs and that puts little spenders in a disadvantageous position. I’m an old school player, so I can’t help comparing E&P to any pc game that you can buy for few tens of bucks, is completely bug free and will give you the exact same chances to perform well as any other player, all that matter is your skills and the time you decide to invest on it.

The fact that the outcome of my purchases is not guaranteed doesn’t help either, but is not a top reason for me, I wouldn’t spend 100 dollars even if each of them was a hotm guaranteed. I just think the game is not worth that money, but that’s just me.

The day big spenders will become so overwhelmingly powerful that a f2p can’t match them in any way probably I’ll stop playing too, but that’s not the case yet, heroes pullable from tc20 will get you anywhere in the game, from the top 100 leaderboard in raids to the top 100 positions in some events. A few lucky pulls on hotm or some event heroes won’t hurt either, but that doesn’t need your money, just a lot of patience and thoughtful investment of your gems and hero tokens (and atlantis coins now).

What’s my point? After re-reading through my post I can’t tell, just wanted to share my thoughts since I haven’t read many other similar


I remember reading somewhere on these forums that that’s exactly what happens, because when Obakan and Domitia were added to the pool of heroes, the chance to get a five star didn’t increase. That way, you preserve the global chances of drawing a particular Hero class.

As one developer to another: if the random system is well implemented, then it shouldn’t matter when you pull. I should be purely anecdotal that it gets better in the evenings.

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Besides buying the sporadic ascension mat specials, which you already addressed, there are a couple of other things you can do. If you are already familiar with what I’m going to suggest, please know that I am not condescending you, and I hope someone who isn’t familiar with these things will find the advice useful. Number one, speed your monster and raid chests with the goal being to open more chests, thus speeding up the occurrence of elemental chest drops. And number two, when attacking titans, ALWAYS shoot for (at least) loot tier IX. This guarantees three ‘rolls’ for ascension materials. True it may be just a backpack you receive, but this is still an ascension mat and over time it adds up. I hope you are ‘blessed’ with whatever ascension mat you need, and soon. Have a good day!

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I came across your post and thought you put my thoughts into words elegantly… thank you for the time that you penned this,

I found your analisys very interesting and really agree with your assumption, since I have made the same myself after noticing such behavior with my pulls and the ones referred by many alliance friends, who changed their “pull habits” accordingly.

I guess that the number of seconds passed to the function might be someway connected with the timestamp of the game account registration, maybe the number of seconds elapsed since the date and time of our first logon in the game, so that it would provide more randomness to different users without the need of developing a more complex rng algorithm. :slight_smile:

Who knows… :upside_down_face: it could even be just suggestion.

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