The Odds Aren't Really Good Enough to Try Very Hard

Let me start by saying that I enjoy this game and even still plan to spend some money on it, but I learned a lesson this event.

The odds of pulling a 5* event hero are so low that it’s not worth trying very very hard.

Now if you’re willing to drop $1000 to practically (but not definitely guarantee you get a specific hero) then by all means proceed. If you’re a multimillionaire, it’s worth it to spend a small percentage of your free cash for something you enjoy. I respect that, I think it’s cool, it helps fund the game, and I would love to be there some time in the future.

If you’re not in that boat I would say that you probably shouldn’t try too hard. Set aside a small amount of fun gambling money. Realize the odds are not in your favor. Be ready to get a lot of 3*, some 4* feeder heroes or duplicates for war, and if you get something awesome that’s great… but don’t try all that hard since if you do, it still very well might not happen.

I read in another post that the average number of rolls to get a specific event hero is 246. That’s around $639.60 depending on what you pay for gems. Some will take more and some less. The average to get a HOTM is 82 rolls. These are very low odds. Theoretically it could take over 1,000 pulls before you get the hero that you want.

I’m looking forward to Season 2 and the other monthly events. I’m even looking forward to Knights of Avalon coming back since there’s still one hero that I would like to get from it. I just know not to take it so seriously and look at funds spent as a low chance gamble and not really something to try hard for. I’m a little bummed out that the odds for the returning HOTM will also probably be similar so even though I would LOVE an Alby, Ares, Athena, Zeline, Hel, etc… It’s not worth going all out due to the very high odds of not succeeding in getting a specific one.

Best of luck to all of you in your future rolls. I hope you wish me the same.

All the best,

DB

23 Likes

A very down to earth post there, @DontBlink

The mind boggles when I see some of the sums people are spending.

I’m all for freedom of choice but the odds are so long, it seems to bring a lot of heartache.

6 Likes

Thanks @JonahTheBard I spent more than I had originally planned.

I got a lot of good stuff and definitely got stronger with my hero-leveling and team roster.

When you look at the math and odds though you really need to know where you’re willing to end up if you spend and don’t get what you’re looking for.

I think everyone is fully aware of their financial limits and won’t likely go to the bank and apply for a crazy overdraft because of the game lol

You’re right. The odds are extremely low but it seems the lower the odds are perceived, the more you, me, and others want it to happen (of course as long as we can still afford it), and the feeling of ‘achieving’ that one hero that is so rare, so good, and that we’ve been chasing for a while turns out to be actually what we unconsciously pursue.

The moment we see that one hero pops up seems to give us way more pleasure than the moment he/she has reached level 80 lol.

But hey, don’t worry too much if you have spent way more than you planned. Just consider it an investment rather than money thrown out of the window. We all made choices both good and bad at certain moments; we can’t always be rational. If choice we made works out, we enjoy it; if it doesn’t, we accept and move on right!? :slight_smile:

1 Like

Definitely have talked to people who have skipped car payments or blown rent in this game… Gambling is a serious addiction and often people are not in control of their actions…just driven with a need to win so they ignore all odds (this next pull HAS to pay out…or I already spent $500 i shouldn’t quit now…)

9 Likes

Just remember, if you do summon and it doesn’t give you anything good, wait for some time and then try it later. RNG is based on initial (seed) value and it can give you very different outcomes in different times. That’s how I do it and with aprox. 80 pulls I’ve got 5 event 5* and every 4*, although I haven’t tried all events yet.

4 Likes

@Argon That makes a ton of sense and could explain why I’ve seen a lot of “clumpiness” with rolls. There will be streaks of nothing at all, and then at other times people get 3 or more 5* in a single 10x roll.

Do you do the 10x or one at a time when you roll? Also around how long do you wait between rolls?

Thanks for your input

I spent a couple hundred dollars to try and get Panther and another couple hundred dollars to try and get Guin. The fact I got neither is of course disappointing ,but I knew the odds were against it. Beyond that, I didn’t get a single 5* at all with any of those pulls… it does seem like they decreased the chance to get not only event heroes, but any 5 star heroes at all. I assume the intent is to get you to spend more to keep trying but it had the opposite effect for me. I have realized the odds are so bad, its not worth spending any money at all.

6 Likes

I ignore the system that SG uses, but it’s funny, I had saved 3000 gems to throw in avalon, I expected a hero like gin or arturo, but I almost settled for any 5 * and merlin, pull and I got 3 merlin and 4 lancelot, curious thrown The next day I took a war pack and threw another opportunity, 9 of 3 * and a useless cyprian, disappointment, I would have liked a drake and, if I believed the lies about people spending 2 runs would come out. I was disappointed and a residual deposit of 250 gems, in the afternoon I received 30 of vip and another 20 of titan, chests, etc, I saw 300 and decided to throw them in a single attempt, left lianna.

1 Like

I would very much like to see P&E follow what many other games do and publish the odds of pulls. Even if it’s in game currency that is ‘spent’, the fact that can be purchased surely qualifies under the Apple rules?

By not publishing when others do it only creates mistrust even if we are assured the odds haven’t changed. If they haven’t why hide it? There’s one obvious answer.

One of the reasons for this rule is to avoid developers preying on those with addictive tendencies. The post above that people are aware of their limits and surely won’t overspend is very much wide of the mark. There are more than enough people who get into problems as a result of a bad habit even if they intellectually know that it’s bad. But at least if they see the actual odds it does provide a mitigating factor.

There are some who will spend regardless and be happy to do so for an edge but I do worry about people who really can’t afford it being enticed to chase a hero.

5 Likes

I had planned to pull for this event, and I even have a very decent amount of gems, but decided it wasn’t worth it to even try. I think that is what will end up burning the developers in the end… they make it so difficult that even when you can you’ve already psyched yourself out that you won’t get any decent hero.

I feel sorry for those who spend hundreds of dollars in one shot on basically nothing. That money could be spent on bills or a vacation or something meaningful, but instead it was basically as if it was thrown away.

3 Likes

What is meaningfull varies from person to person. From situation to situation. People are free to decide for themselves.

If you’ve decided not to spend anymore. Great for you! I wish you much joy with yout newfound monetary wealth, be it bills, vaccations or other to you meaningfull activities.

3 Likes

I am quite certain after you have spent your money and are disappointed with the results, you have a certain amount of regret and buyers remorse… you are absolutely correct in that you can choose to spend your money on whatever you would like.

I will continue to feel sorry for those who perpetuate and worsen games like these. Loot box games are not really about fun as much as it about addiction, but as long as companies can make millions off of them, then they will continue to thrive.

The vast majority of players are average income players. They are not millionaires… if you have discretionary money for this entertainment, then that is wonderful, but when you got your Guinevere or whatever other coveted hero, did it make you several hundred dollars worth of a better player at this game or was it of incremental value?

4 Likes

@Fledoble Thanks! And yeah, I miss the days when getting a Wu Kong, Merlin, BoldTusk, Grimm, etc was exciting and meaningful.

Hey, that just got me thinking how much this game can be like a drug, whereas at first it only takes a little bit to get an effect, but over time you need higher doses (ie 5* super-hard-to-get heroes)

@StealthNinja Yeah the increments of improvement, especially per dollar spent, get smaller and smaller.

Feel free to feel and think whatever you want. Just dont assume your values apply to everybody.

Wheather or not the majority of players are milionairs or poor has no real importance here. People spent. People got or didnt get what they wanted. And that either made them better players or not.

It doesnt matter.

In this context it boils down to “Are you happy with your decision? Was it worth it to you? And will you do it again?”

Was the alcohol you bought for a party last friday worth it?
Was the action of giving money to a homeless person worth it?
Was the skydiving you did worth it?

If yes. Great!
If no. Lesson learned.

I feel this conversation is entering the lands of polemics from my part as much as yours, so I’m opting out here.

Have a great weekend!

1 Like

While reading the forums, I believe the tide has turned away from your feelings about the game. I am happy you are happy spending your money on the game. When an event finishes and most of the forum is about quitting or how unfair the game is, there might be a problem.

Good luck to you, but I feel strongly that a majority who have spent on this game regret it. The big spenders might accept it, or justify it in their own heads, but I highly doubt most have told their significant other how much money they have spent on the game… or for that matter even themselves… if you go back and add it all up and it’s $1,000… $2,000… $3,000? Do you then think to yourself… well that was a good investment?

If you told your best friend, spouse, parent, etc. that you spent that on a video game, what reaction do you think you would get? I doubt that it would be that they were proud of your accomplishments…

3 Likes

But hey, don’t worry too much if you have spent way more than you planned. Just consider it an investment rather than money thrown out of the window.

I hope you are not serious now? Consider it an investment? Spending such money on those few pixels on the screen is exactly throwing them out of the window. You guys haven’t noticed that prices in this game are just simply INSANE? Compare what you get for your $ here to PC or consoles. Here you get few heroes here and there when for the same money you get 20-30 full, top quality games on PC or consoles. That’s just sick.

4 Likes

I do x10 summons, cos they’re cheaper. I know from experience RNG doesn’t work for me in the morning (GMT+1), but it gets better late in the night. I’m only speculating seed value is unit of time elapsed since given point, so something like seconds elapsed since 1.1.1970, aka unix epoch time, I’m on Android and it’s based on unix. It could work like this:

RNG value = java.math.random(<number_of_seconds>)

And I’ve already speculated in another post it could firstly roll on number of stars (3-5) and then for a hero. It’s the easiest way to implement it imho.

2 Likes

I don’t know if there’s a better way to make it positive. The money was already spent, which can’t be unchanged and people are not really rational when they spend on pulling heroes and most of us only started to realize that after we spent right?

If we human actually have the capacity of making every decision unemotionally just like a computer then fascism and communism should have won. lol

1 Like

Games like this are just like any other form of gambling/lotteries. Some people will take it too far, not only in spending but in setting their hopes too high. So I disagree with the replies saying people will know and adhere to their limits.
Some people will go play casino games and have an initial plan to only spend a certain amount of money at a machine before walking away if they haven’t won anything of worth at that point— but instead of sticking to this plan they get carried away and keep on spending until they eventually win or until they run out of money to spend. Some people are prone to taking gambling too far:

Its defintely not a good idea for people to spend a significant amount of money on gambling if they will be notably upset or angered if they don’t get what they’re after. Anyone willing to spend their real money on the chance to summon epic and legendary heroes should decide on a dollar amount they can live with losing per month and only spend that amount, so if they only get things of low value to them they arent hurt.

There was a thread recently by a player very dissapointed about not getting a specific 5 star hero they spent $600 attempting to get. Interestingly, he or she kept insisting it was nothing like gambling and that there should be a mechanism added in the game that “reads” how many times you’ve been “unlucky” and if you hit a certain limit you then become entitled to the 5 star hero you want or something. Reason I bringing this up as relevant is because later in the thread the player announced they were quitting the game all together. Spending $600 only to quit the game did put in perspective that for some people this game can become more about the thrill of getting the big win they’re after rather than the fun of the game play and making teams.

Newb player here! Boldtusk was my first 4 star. I got him with a token and was over the moon about getting him, in fact Im still over the moon about having him because 4 stars are still super hard for me to get. I was thinking about getting the VIP pass but this comment worried me that spending money may not be worth it if it’ll feel less rewarding everytime. :confounded:

3 Likes

Cookie Settings