If you want to get really scared stop talking about the “odds” of pulling a hero and start to talk about cold cash. In Australia a 10000 pack of gems costs $160.00. Purchasing gems is a neat way of abstracting you from the actual cost of the content you buy. Based on what I am hearing from other players it can take hundreds of pulls to actually bag something decent. If you have been playing for some time your chances of drawing a duplicate or something not useful is extremely high.
Real $$$ cost for pulls are:
1 = $4.48
10 = $44.80
30 = $134.40
100 = $448.00
200 = $896.00
300 = $1344.00
From what I have heard it is not uncommon for people to be trying 200 or more pulls to bag the new heroes or HoTM. Bear in mind that these heroes are situationally useful but like all content in E&P they will likely become less useful with the release of new content. This keeps the “desire” for new heroes active and makes you more willing to spend more each month.
Just to put the dollars in perspective. $896.00 can buy you any new gaming console and 5-8 titles. These are complete games with masses of content. They also do not impose arbitrary restrictions that control how and when you can play. As of this morning I can fly from Sydney to Los Angeles return for the cost of 200 pulls.
There is legislation being discussed in many countries regarding “loot boxes” and the value that they actually provide. No matter how it is dressed up it is gambling. It is more insidious as its gambling without the possiblity of winning anything real or ever recovering your investment.
Avi had posted a great question a while back about if the game is now P2W. My view on that is that the P2W ship sailed long ago in E&P. Atlantis is just maximising that reality.
Now I’m not saying don’t pay for gems to pull heroes. I am saying make sure you clearly understand how much you are paying and what you get in return.