@Kerridoc you could give almost the same analysis to everyone who comes to the forum asking “should I ascend A or B?” Use your own judgement.
I agree that TP is a weak metric; I never look at it while raiding because the only thing it would matter for is how many cups I stand to win. The match-up between elements is god; if I can mitigate/counter your powers with the right colors and mana speed, I win. If not (or if the boards are evil) I lose.
The problem is that analyses which are easy for many of us feel very daunting to a large portion of the population. And they’re looking for shorthands or simplifications to help them understand how to proceed. I’m not convinced that kicking away the crutch will genuinely help people learn to walk.