Wow u are lucky with the troops!
I am still confused about how you actually win.
I was actually going to ask the same question @nevarmaor. How does one “win” this game? You can win IN the game but as far as winning the entire game…I’m at a loss?
Please identify the date you think the nerf occurred. If you have a theory as to why it was done (and done at that time), that would also be of interest to me.
I’d be happy to review your tracking log - a full list of the dates and heroes / troops summoned should be sufficient. Since you state that the TC 20 has been nerfed, you’ll need to have a convincingly large data set for the period before the nerf AND after, so that the actual drop rates for each time period can be demonstrated with a high degree of confidence.
As it turns out, that question has come up before:
Thanks @lexinen, your posts are another that I thought I had read the majority of. Without even knowing it you have helped me immensely. Appreciate everything you give back to this community. Hope you and RNGesus are on good terms as of late
P.S as a matter of fact your post “what is elemental damage” was extremely helpful to me when I started. The basics are pinned in my alliance as a guideline for the newer players.
It’s not nerfed, the odds are the same as they’ve always been.
After a 500,000,000 pull simulation (using Atlantis odds), I came up with these as my longest streaks:
Longest streak no 5*: 449
Longest streak no HOTM: 1108
Longest streak only 3*: 61
So if you’re streaks are smaller than that, you’re not totally unlucky!
Here are the average streaks from those runs, for reference:
Average streak no 5*: 24.9
Average streak no HOTM: 70.53
Average streak 3* only: 3.5
The observed odds of TC20 are much better than summoning pulls for $$; it’s about 1:16. The odds of getting no 5* from 70 pulls is about 1%; not impossible, but unlikely.
RNG is streaky. Good and bad. I’ve gotten five 4* mats this week, three 3* unfarmable mats, Thorne from TC 20, and Miki from a free EHT. If it can happen to me, it can happen to you too. You have to take the bad with the good and be patient.
I couldn’t find a post summarizing the percentages, do you think a simulation at 77.5%, 17.5%, and 5% is about fair? I see some 5* %s are higher, but a lot are lower too.
Using rough TC20 %s, 500M runs:
longest streak no 5*: 297
longest streak only 3*: 74
Average no 5* streak: 15.68
Average 3 star streak: 4.24
Median no 5*: 11
Median all 3*: 3
I’ve been running TC20 for over a year. I ran two for a month, so roughly 14 months. I have in that time pulled approximately (I didn’t keep track) 15 5*. That would be 15 in roughly 210 pulls (around 7%).
I also have gotten them in streaks. I went 4 months no 5* (0 for 60), then 5 in 5 weeks (and 8 in 2-1/2 months) now I am 5 months and counting no 5* (0 for 75 or so). Which would mean some 7 in my first 2-1/2 months. The 5 in 5 weeks were 2 in 1 week, one a week later (all red), then 2 on consecutive pulls a few weeks later (both dark).
I have some complaints about the rate of hero’s but I have to disagree with the OP. I have only managed to draw Joon after 8 months and Mitsuko after 13 months. I am very happy to have them. However, TC20 has been much better. I recently collected another 18 from 3 TC20 with 6 in each. I got Justice and Richard. Previously I obtained Magni, Khagan, Elena, Obakan, Domitia and Vivica. That is at 140 pulls which is 5.7%. I also got nearly every 4* which I already had most of from summons.
That is 2 of every color 5* hero except green which I am patiently(not really) waiting for Lianna x 2 or Lianna and Elkanen to pop out.
I didn’t get a 4* until I was level 22. In TC20 Khagan didn’t appear until the 34th pull but each collection I have pulled 3 5* except the last which was only 2. I have another batch in the 3 TC20 again and will collect when 10 in each (30x) are ready(unless like last time I hit the icon and collect by accident…LOL).
Your odds are on the bad side but not completely unheard of. They do post the odds up in the left corner in all the summons so you know what you are doing. TC20 has a large number of posts with people detailing every color, summon, and date of when each hero appears with odds generally agreeing at 5,20,75 for 5,4,3* heros.
I hope you stick it out and keep playing. It is a great thing when the RNG smiles on you and a 5* or a nice 4 pops out. I just got Proteus and was thrilled. And while some of the 5* heros I got from TC20 aren’t considered great, I still get thrilled when they show up. And they are free, each TC20 is like saving 300 gems. Look at it that way and you can feel better.
It’s not Pay2Win, it’s PnP…
You’re able to buy about 20 to 30 % advantages, but even whaling won’t buy you guaranteed victories.
I haven’t been following the thousands of entries in that thread, but based on the data from the early part, it looked like the confidence intervals could include:
12/16, 3/16, 1/16
which has a pleasant symmetry (you have a 1 in 4 chance to get something other than a 3*, and if you make that roll, then you have a 1 in 4 chance to get a 5*).
Using Kerridoc’s TC20 %s, 500M runs:
longest streak no 5*: 283
longest streak only 3*: 63
Average no 5* streak: 15
Average 3 star streak: 4
Median no 5*: 10
Median all 3*: 3
Well for all the crappy luck I have with tiles in battles, particularly stacking colors, I seem to be making up for it in my TC’s — in the last couple of days I pulled a Marjana and Horghall. I don’t think I’d ever even seen those two in battle. I now have way more heroes than I think I can ever possibly level up.
Marjana is an excellent offensive hero that you occasionally see in defense. She is one of the better snipers in the game, with a damage over time component as well.
Horghall can be a half-decent tank but usually by the time you level him up you have better options.
look at these TC-20s 271-69-18 3-4-5s