TC20 nerfed, The game is pay to win

[Tank2]

From 70 missions i got only 4x4* and not even one 5*. This game is PAY TO WIN!!!
From 40 epic troop tokens i got only 1x 4* troops(the odds are 1/10).This game is PAY TO WIN!!!

[Perilin]

1. More like play a long time (with patience and dedication) to win, and pay to win faster. If you’re not paying you have to accept slower progress than those who do pay. Nothing out of the ordinary.

2. TC20 is a long game. 70 trainings is not that many. You’re on the unlucky side now but that will likely smooth out over time (see point 1). I was also under the expected drop rates for 4s and 5s in my first 100 trainings. Some people are lucky and some are not.

3. 40 troop tokens is, again, not very many. I have in a year and a bit acquired 2 or more of each colour from tokens (granted I did 3-5 single troop summons with gems during that time, but the vast majority of my troops come from tokens).

Chin up, and good luck.

[Elpis]

My worst streak of trainings was 110 consecutive without any 5*, followed soon enough by the best streak of 5* (4 in 13 trainings).

It was the same version, be patient.

[Ultra]

I don’t agree. I just got Marjana, the last classic 5 star sniper to be obtained (I previously got Lianna maxed, then another Lianna, then Joon maxed, then Sartana, then Magni), a few minutes ago from my lone TC20 doing TC20 training (the rest are doing TC11 and TC2 functions). This is classic RNG at its finest, sometimes you feel the blessings, and sometimes the curses. It comes in waves. Sometimes the dry spell lasts a few months (which you feel already is an eternity) but when the RNG gods and goddesses smile on you, unfarmable ascension items, ideal 5 star heroes and 4 star troops rain. And when it rains, it pours. Which is quickly dissipated in just a snap and experience again another dry spell.

If you are not up to it, better play other games instead.

EDIT: P.S. I never buy troops using gems. All I used were epic troop tokens and so far, in several months of playing, I got five 4star purple mana troops (no 4star purple crit troop yet), four 4star yellow mana troops, two 4star yellow crit troops, three 4star blue mana troops, two 4star blue crit troops, three 4star red crit troops, one 4star red mana troop, and three 4star green crit troops (no 4star green mana troop yet).

[Patrickcw]

Wow u are lucky with the troops!

[nevarmaor]

I am still confused about how you actually win.

[PapaHeavy]

I was actually going to ask the same question @nevarmaor. How does one “win” this game? You can win IN the game but as far as winning the entire game…I’m at a loss?

[IvyTheTerrible]

Please identify the date you think the nerf occurred. If you have a theory as to why it was done (and done at that time), that would also be of interest to me.

I’d be happy to review your tracking log - a full list of the dates and heroes / troops summoned should be sufficient. Since you state that the TC 20 has been nerfed, you’ll need to have a convincingly large data set for the period before the nerf AND after, so that the actual drop rates for each time period can be demonstrated with a high degree of confidence.

[lexinen]

@PapaHeavy

How does one “win” this game?

As it turns out, that question has come up before:

What Is Winning?

So many of you have likely seen this thread… …which is a good summation of many other threads that came before it: the game is perceived by many to be “Pay to Win” (P2W) or at least have P2W elements in it. As I’ve been reading this forum and specifically that thread, though, I’ve seen remarkably different viewpoints on whether this game is P2W or “Free to Play” (F2P). On one side, there are plenty of posts about not being able to compete unless you spend thousands of dollars for hero pulls…

[PapaHeavy]

Thanks @lexinen, your posts are another that I thought I had read the majority of. Without even knowing it you have helped me immensely. Appreciate everything you give back to this community. Hope you and RNGesus are on good terms as of late

P.S as a matter of fact your post “what is elemental damage” was extremely helpful to me when I started. The basics are pinned in my alliance as a guideline for the newer players.

What Is Elemental Damage? - A Guide to Elements

I could swear that there’s already a thread on this, but I couldn’t find one, so here’s one. Very recently, I’ve seen complaints pop up that, for example, red titans are one-shotting blue heroes when they shouldn’t be. However, since titan attacks are non-elemental, the hero color shouldn’t matter. To me, this implies that there is a misunderstanding concerning how elements affect different types of attacks. To clear this up, here’s a short guide about elements. T…

[Shallab]

It’s not nerfed, the odds are the same as they’ve always been.

[pinkymadigan]

After a 500,000,000 pull simulation (using Atlantis odds), I came up with these as my longest streaks:

Longest streak no 5*: 449
Longest streak no HOTM: 1108
Longest streak only 3*: 61

So if you’re streaks are smaller than that, you’re not totally unlucky!

Here are the average streaks from those runs, for reference:

Average streak no 5*: 24.9
Average streak no HOTM: 70.53
Average streak 3* only: 3.5

[Kerridoc]

Take a look at https://forum.smallgiantgames.com/t/training-camp-lvl-20-results

The observed odds of TC20 are much better than summoning pulls for $$; it’s about 1:16. The odds of getting no 5* from 70 pulls is about 1%; not impossible, but unlikely.

[StephenNap89]

RNG is streaky. Good and bad. I’ve gotten five 4* mats this week, three 3* unfarmable mats, Thorne from TC 20, and Miki from a free EHT. If it can happen to me, it can happen to you too. You have to take the bad with the good and be patient.

[pinkymadigan]

I couldn’t find a post summarizing the percentages, do you think a simulation at 77.5%, 17.5%, and 5% is about fair? I see some 5* %s are higher, but a lot are lower too.

[pinkymadigan]

Using rough TC20 %s, 500M runs:

longest streak no 5*: 297
longest streak only 3*: 74

Average no 5* streak: 15.68
Average 3 star streak: 4.24

Median no 5*: 11
Median all 3*: 3

[nevarmaor]

I’ve been running TC20 for over a year. I ran two for a month, so roughly 14 months. I have in that time pulled approximately (I didn’t keep track) 15 5*. That would be 15 in roughly 210 pulls (around 7%).

I also have gotten them in streaks. I went 4 months no 5* (0 for 60), then 5 in 5 weeks (and 8 in 2-1/2 months) now I am 5 months and counting no 5* (0 for 75 or so). Which would mean some 7 in my first 2-1/2 months. The 5 in 5 weeks were 2 in 1 week, one a week later (all red), then 2 on consecutive pulls a few weeks later (both dark).

[Obsidian]

I have some complaints about the rate of hero’s but I have to disagree with the OP. I have only managed to draw Joon after 8 months and Mitsuko after 13 months. I am very happy to have them. However, TC20 has been much better. I recently collected another 18 from 3 TC20 with 6 in each. I got Justice and Richard. Previously I obtained Magni, Khagan, Elena, Obakan, Domitia and Vivica. That is at 140 pulls which is 5.7%. I also got nearly every 4* which I already had most of from summons.
That is 2 of every color 5* hero except green which I am patiently(not really) waiting for Lianna x 2 or Lianna and Elkanen to pop out.
I didn’t get a 4* until I was level 22. In TC20 Khagan didn’t appear until the 34th pull but each collection I have pulled 3 5* except the last which was only 2. I have another batch in the 3 TC20 again and will collect when 10 in each (30x) are ready(unless like last time I hit the icon and collect by accident…LOL).
Your odds are on the bad side but not completely unheard of. They do post the odds up in the left corner in all the summons so you know what you are doing. TC20 has a large number of posts with people detailing every color, summon, and date of when each hero appears with odds generally agreeing at 5,20,75 for 5,4,3* heros.
I hope you stick it out and keep playing. It is a great thing when the RNG smiles on you and a 5* or a nice 4 pops out. I just got Proteus and was thrilled. And while some of the 5* heros I got from TC20 aren’t considered great, I still get thrilled when they show up. And they are free, each TC20 is like saving 300 gems. Look at it that way and you can feel better.

[Olmor]

It’s not Pay2Win, it’s PnP…

Pay’n’Play…

You’re able to buy about 20 to 30 % advantages, but even whaling won’t buy you guaranteed victories.

[Kerridoc]

I haven’t been following the thousands of entries in that thread, but based on the data from the early part, it looked like the confidence intervals could include:

12/16, 3/16, 1/16

which has a pleasant symmetry (you have a 1 in 4 chance to get something other than a 3*, and if you make that roll, then you have a 1 in 4 chance to get a 5*).