To be clear, your response to me pointing out that several parts of your last post are entirely incomprehensible is:
Yes, I do not understand at all what you were trying to communicate in at least two parts of your last message. That’s why I wrote “I do not know what that means” and invited you to “clarify”. When you then choose not to explain yourself it makes me think that perhaps you can’t - maybe you didn’t have an actual point to make.
You think I omitted some relevant context? Okay, let’s review the sentence as a whole
So far as I can tell, nothing has changed. You have referred to a “10 septillion % chance that something will never go wrong”. Any competent 10 year old ought to be able to explain why this is nonsense.
I guess you have three options here:
- Acknowledge your ridiculous stuff up. Everyone makes mistakes so why worry?
- Ignore that fiasco of a sentence. Just pretend it never happened.
- Try to defend it, explaining that you meant something sensible. (I would love to read that.)
This misunderstand the nature of mathematics. Maths is the study of the logical implications of axioms, and thus cannot be “proven wrong”. Mistakes in arithmetic can happen, of course, and underlying axioms may be incorrect, but mathematics itself is absolute and indisputable.
As I’ve carefully explained from my first response to you and you still seem to be struggling to grasp, a player summoning 1500 times in a row with no 5* heroes resulting would not call into question the mathematics of probability in any way - it would prove beyond doubt that the underlying probabilities provided by SG, and upon which the maths was based, were wrong. (That’s the whole point of Taleb’s book, by the way, and the essence of what is sometimes known as the Black Swan argument. You seriously need to read the book instead of the Cliff notes.)
This is correct: mathematics, by definition, is axiomatic. That’s what we mean when we use the word “mathematics”. (It occurs to me that I’m trying to discuss mathematics with someone who, it is rapidly becoming clear, may not actually understand what mathematics is.)
No, maths results are always up to be questioned. That’s why I try always to provide my calculations in full, if possible, and invite you to review them and point out any errors I have made. I often make stupid errors.
I don’t understand what this means, so I assume that no, it’s not what I am trying to say. But if you believe that at some point I have got the number of 000s wrong in my calculations, then please - explain where you think I made the mistake. We can review the numbers together and identify whether there is a problem.
I hope I have now resolved your confusion by clarifying my meaning. (I would appreciate it if you would return the favour and do your best in good faith to clarify your meaning.)
Here’s an excellent example - I would love for you to explain what you mean here. Running a test 100 times sounds like an attempt to generate an empirical result, not an application of the mathematics of probability. Repeating that test 1 million times “until they reach my desired results” sounds like the fever dream of a mixed up mind: what the holy heck are you talking about?
Honestly, my suspicion, upon reading that paragraph multiple times, is that you wrote it without there being any genuine meaning to the words. I think you’re just sort of saying, I don’t trust all this daggum maths and probability and zeroes and whatnot.
If you mean something more than that - if you have an actual point - then I invite you again to explain it. So far you have not.
No idea what your dance metaphor refers to, I don’t know how the weather got involved in your thoughts, and I certainly don’t know what point you’re trying to make.
I’m doing my best to understand your position, but you are awfully unclear. Be better!