TC 20 not delivering - MASTER TC20 Vent Thread

[Ozy1]

@Brobb

likelihood

Thus not a 100% certainty

@Brobb

then you are choosing to live in a world of ignorance.

So the fact that over time so many scientists have been proven wrong or that scientists will even prove each other wrong mean that I must be delusional for not believing in everything they are saying. Hmmmmm

@Brobb

If you think my calculations are wrong then please explain how.

I never said or suggested your calculations where wrong just that they where outrageous examples given the said results over 1500 pulls as 1/1500 times doesn’t result in a 100% absolute certainty as the correct result is

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For 1 to 1500 odds

Probability of:
Winning (getting a 5*) = (0.9993) or 99.9334%
Losing (not getting a 5*)= (0.0007) or 0.0666%

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Thus there is and always will be as I stated earlier that 0.1% chance you will not get a 5* thus the 100% is incorrect and as you said you could sue them BUT if it was stated 99.9% then that very very slim 0.1% chance that you don’t get a 5* after doing 1500 pulls is still there thus you can’t sue and that is a 100% certainty.

@Brobb

you have comprehensively demonstrated that you do not understand probability.

It seems to be your most common saying that others just don’t understand anything and that your results should be the last word which only leads me to honestly believe that you are the one not understanding because you are stuck in the belief that probability and certainty are one of the same thing and produce the same outcome.

@Brobb

You seem to be a good and likeable person

Lol, oh I am believe me there is no doubt and that is a certainty.

@Brobb

I hope you stay around,

Why should I not stay around, you think you scare or bother me, or maybe you believe that your far more educated than I am, lol, you amuse if anything, lol, thus why as I stated in the beginning that I was doing this

@Ozy1

Let’s have a little fun here for a minute.

for the fun of it. But you most certainly DON’T scare or worry me, lol.

@Brobb

but for now it’s clear that at some point in your education you lost track of what was being taught.

HMMMMM. Oh I doubt that very much, lol, nice try though, as in the eyes of the law what I am telling you IS a 100% CERTAINTY that the 0.1% chance not to get is actually there thus over riding any probability, lol.

Having fun yet, lol.

[ThePirateKing]

@Ozy1

For 1 to 1500 odds

Probability of:
Winning (getting a 5*) = (0.9993) or 99.9334%
Losing (not getting a 5*)= (0.0007) or 0.0666%

Are these calculations for TC20?

[Wraith]

First thing I did, I read about what Jonah did on here and giggled, poor man, no one forgets it.

[Ozy1]

@ThePirateKing

Are these calculations for TC20?

No these are just calculations over 1500 pulls.

[ThePirateKing]

Yeah, but based on what probability? TC20 or summon portals?

[Ozy1]

@ThePirateKing

TC20 or summon portals?

Summons but that’s not say that the TC20 sommons portal is any different.

[ThePirateKing]

The probability of pulling a 5 star are different in the two portals. For TC20 it is the following.

For epic hero summon portal it is the following

In both these cases it is practically 100%. At least among the 1.4 million EnP players, no one will ever go through 1500 pulls without getting a 5 star hero.

[Brobb]

@Ozy1

Thus not a 100% certainty

You are wrong about that. It is a 100% certainty in every practical sense.

@Ozy1

So the fact that over time so many scientists have been proven wrong or that scientists will even prove each other wrong mean that I must be delusional for not believing in everything they are saying. Hmmmmm

The scientific consensus always represents our best understanding of the world. When new evidence arises that proves that understanding wrong, science develops a new understanding that incorporates and accounts for that new evidence.

So yes, you are quite delusional if you don’t believe what you are told by scientists. They are very often wrong, but they’re the least wrong we can get at any particular time. Their views are informed by the evidence: that remains the best (and only rational) way we can develop an understanding of the world.

@Ozy1

For 1 to 1500 odds

Probability of:
Winning (getting a 5*) = (0.9993) or 99.9334%
Losing (not getting a 5*)= (0.0007) or 0.0666%

Thus there is and always will be as I stated earlier that 0.1% chance you will not get a 5* thus the 100% is incorrect and as you said you could sue them BUT if it was stated 99.9% then that very very slim 0.1% chance that you don’t get a 5* after doing 1500 pulls is still there thus you can’t sue and that is a 100% certainty.

This is utterly, comprehensively and tragically wrong, and demonstrates a deep misunderstanding of probability. If a 14 year old wrote this in an Introduction to Statistics course, they would fail and immediately be required to transfer to Art History.

After 1500 pulls, there is nothing like a 0.1%, which is 1 in 1000, chance you have not pulled a 5* hero. The chance, as I explained above (setting out my calculations so that you could understand them) is 0.00000000000000000000000001, which is 0.000000000000000000000001%, which is 1 in 10 septillion.

That’s what we can happily call an impossibility in a court of law. It would be irrefutable proof that the odds were not as SG states. If you don’t understand this, either you don’t understand arithmetic or you don’t understand what probabilities actually mean.

@Ozy1

It seems to be your most common saying that others just don’t understand anything and that your results should be the last word which only leads me to honestly believe that you are the one not understanding because you are stuck in the belief that probability and certainty are one of the same thing and produce the same outcome.

Plenty of people in the forum have an excellent understanding of probability - many vastly superior to my own. You are not one of them, if you can look at an event with odds of one in ten septillion and state it to be possible.

@Ozy1

Why should I not stay around, you think you scare or bother me, or maybe you believe that your far more educated than I am, lol

I don’t believe I scare or bother you and I have no idea what your level of education is or why that should matter. But you have made a fool of yourself in this thread and we sometimes see people who make fools of themselves disappear. I ask that you do not: we are all idiots sometimes and it’s nothing to be ashamed of.

(It is virtuous, however, to try to understand what it was that you got wrong when you have said something enormously stupid.)

@Ozy1

the 0.1% chance not to get is actually there thus over riding any probability, lol.

And there it is: that’s the bit you keep getting wrong.

[Brobb]

A few of points of order here.

Firstly, strictly speaking we don’t know the chance of pulling a 5* from TC20. We suspect it might be 5%, but our best estimate based on our data collection was actually about 5.6%, last time I checked. (I might be out of date and we might have a better estimate or SG might have released the true training camp odds without me noticing - feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.)

Secondly, @zephyr1’s excellent summary applied not to the epic summons portal, but to the Valhalla summons portal, where the odds are slightly different.

Thirdly, the chance of summoning a 5* hero from the epic summons portal is not quite 2.8%, although that’s what it looks like at first glance. There is a 1.5% chance of summoning a classic 5% hero for every summons, and also an independent 1.3% chance of summoning the HOTM. So the chance of summoning neither kind of 5* hero in a single summons is not 1 - 0.028, but
(1 - 0.015)(1 - 0.013) = 0.972195
which tells us that the actual chance of pulling a 5* hero from any single epic summons is 0.027805, or 2.7805%.

(I’m nit-picking because I enjoy this stuff. I hope you don’t mind.)

@ThePirateKing

In both these cases it is practically 100%. At least among the 1.4 million EnP players, no one will ever go through 1500 pulls without getting a 5 star hero.

This is absolutely correct. And to replay my previous point, if there were as many EnP players are there are grains of sand on planet earth and they all summoned 1500 times, still none of them would do so without summoning a 5* hero.

[Ozy1]

@Brobb

When new evidence arises that proves that understanding wrong, science develops a new understanding that incorporates and accounts for that new evidence.

100% correct thus meaning in maths that until 1500 pulls is actually done in reality by those septillions and it actually does happen to just 1 of those that they don’t get a 5* you will always be right. But that doesn’t mean it’s an absolute impossibilty as all probabilities leave room for the opposite to be possible no matter how small/slim or minute that chance is.

I remember reading a story around 40yrs ago about how back in the 15th century and before some Frenchman mathematation had proved just like you are doing now that only white swans existed and no one in the world could prove him wrong because no one had ever seen a Swan of another colour thus it didn’t matter what figures he crunched he was always right.
But then in 1697 in now Australia (known a New Holland back then) they found a black Swan, then his math changed to be told as the (likely chances of seeing a black swan) thus including the word LIKELIHOOD of it happening.

So until it actually happens you are correct and I will leave it at that, but to say it WILL NEVER happen is childish in it’s self, just like scientists are only right until proven wrong.
Probabilities are only a human illusion of WHAT IS until they are proven otherwise or the opposite happens and then they are back to square one.

It’s been fun though, lol

[Ozy1]

@ThePirateKing

In both these cases it is practically 100%.

Practically being the operative word here thus not 100%

@ThePirateKing

At least among the 1.4 million EnP players, no one will ever go through 1500 pulls without getting a 5 star hero.

You can only hope it never happens but I agree it is unlikely to happen.

[Brobb]

@Ozy1

100% correct thus meaning in maths that until 1500 pulls is actually done in reality by those septillions and it actually does happen to just 1 of those that they don’t get a 5* you will always be right. But that doesn’t mean it’s an absolute impossibilty.

This is another bit you don’t seem to understand, so I’ll explain it again. 1500 pulls will not be “actually done in reality by those septillions”.

There are not 10 million E&P players, but let’s pretend there are. And let’s pretend that every single one of them summoned 1500 times. The chances of any of them - any of them - summoning zero 5* heroes would be 1 in a quintillion. That, again, is what we call impossible. This is what statistics are for.

@Ozy1

I remember reading a story about how back in the 15th century and before some Frenchman mathematation had proved just like you are doing now that only white swans existed and no one in the world could prove him wrong because no one had ever seen a Swan of another colour thus it didn’t matter what figures he crunched he was always right.
But then in 1697 in now Australia (known a Holland back then) they found a black Swan, then his math changed to be told as the (likely chances of seeing a black swan) thus including the word LIKELIHOOD of it happening.

You are horrifically mangling an anecdote recounted in Nassim Taleb’s excellent book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. There was no mathematician involved in his story, he simply observed that black swans were unknown (and unthinkable to Europeans) before their discovery in Australia. His point was that we should always be prepared to change our estimates of probabilities based on the evidence, and always recognise that our estimates of probability might be quite wrong.

You may recall another point Taleb made in his book. He pointed out that if we know a coin is fair, but we then see heads tossed 50 times in a row, the likelihood of that happening randomly is so low as to make the event impossible in any practical sense, so we need to revise our priors, wake up and recognise that we’re wrong: the coin is not fair.

Maybe you didn’t get to that bit?

@Ozy1

So until it actually happens you are correct and I will leave it at that, but to say it WILL NEVER happen is childish in it’s self, just like scientists are only right until proven wrong.

Scientists absolutely are only right until proven wrong. Mathematics is a little different, however, and probability is just a branch of mathematics. It’s the branch that enables us to say with certainty that an event with likelihood of one chance in ten septillion is an impossibility given a player base of just a few million, only a handful of whom could ever attempt it.

@Ozy1

Probabilities are only a human illusion of WHAT IS until they are proven otherwise or the opposite happens and then they are back to square one.

No they’re not. They’re a practical application of pure mathematics with enormous everyday value - like in assessing whether a game is fair, or an outcome possible.

[Randy]

Dumb and Dumber 'There's a Chance'

[Ozy1]

@Brobb

You are horrifically mangling an anecdote recounted in Nassim Taleb’s excellent book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable . There was no mathematician involved in his story, he simply observed that black swans were unknown (and unthinkable to Europeans) before their discovery in Australia.

Actually although are incorrect for Tabeb’s as he was a financial Professor , your also incorrect in that it is used in mathematics and mathematitions see this theory as threatening to their beliefs.

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A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.

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Anyone who argues the coin toss probability is an idiot, lol but

@Brobb

It’s the branch that enables us to say with certainty that an event with likelihood of one chance in ten septillion is an impossibility given a player base of just a few million, only a handful of whom could ever attempt it.

As stated, it only need happen once m8, no more no less and this is where you and I differ as you see numbers as the absolute end result and I question the possibilities WITHIN THEM no matter how extremely improbable that event may accurr there is always that possibility no matter how big the numbers are as in all probabilities their is a possibility.

If your building a bridge and the risk accessment of the design and materials used result in it being 10 septillion % that something will never go wrong then that bridge has the potential to be built and withstand anything and so it should be built based on those figures. BUT should 1 event counteract that and destroy it the engineers will not accept blame because their math was incorrect not allowing for that extremely minute possibility. It was an unforeseen event after all. But (fore seen that possibility) and allowed for it where as you didn’t because the math didn’t allow you to.

And thus why you and I, although agreeing on your calculations in the reality of it allwe will never see eye to eye on this as I look for pin holes that is within the math where as you don’t see them.

[Brobb]

@Ozy1

Actually although are incorrect for Tabeb’s as he was a financial Professor ,

I do not know what that means.

@Ozy1

your also incorrect in that it is used in mathematics and mathematitions see this theory as threatening to their beliefs.

Utterly wrong. I have never met a mathematician (or statistician) who sees the necessity of revising priors based on evidence as at all threatening to their beliefs. It is the very foundation of Bayesian theory.

@Ozy1

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.

This is a good summary. And if someone summoned 1500 times and received no 5* heroes, that would be a Black Swan event - outright proof that our estimates of summoning probability were just wrong. (As I explained above.)

@Ozy1

As stated, it only need happen once m8, no more no less and this is where you and I differ as you see numbers as the absolute end result and I question the possibilities WITHIN THEM no matter how extremely improbable that event may accurr there is always that possibility no matter how big the numbers are as in all probabilities their is a possibility.

That is a sentence written by someone who does not understand probability,

@Ozy1

If your building a bridge and the risk accessment of the design and materials used result in it being 10 septillion % that something will never go wrong

Oops - don’t tell me you don’t understand percentages either?

@Ozy1

BUT should 1 event counteract that and destroy it the engineers will not accept blame because their math was incorrect not allowing for that extremely minute possibility. It was an unforeseen event after all. But I allowed for it where as you didn’t.

With the best will in the world, I don’t understand what you are trying to say here. Are you suggesting that if an engineer makes an arithmetic error they are likely to deny it? Are you saying that unforeseen events are foreseeable by the prescient? You need to clarify that quite a lot.

@Ozy1

And thus why you and I, although agreeing on your calculations in the reality of it allwe will never see eye to eye on this as I look for pin holes that is within the math where as you don’t see them.

If you ‘agree’ with the calculations but disagree with the conclusion then you don’t actually understand the maths.

[Ozy1]

@Brobb

I do not know what that means.

No surprise there

@Brobb

This is a good summary. And if someone summoned 1500 times and received no 5* heroes, that would be a Black Swan event - outright proof that our estimates of summoning probability were just wrong. (As I explained above.)

Finally we agree

@Brobb

That is a sentence written by someone who does not understand probability,

So you say. You seem to mistaken cunderstandingc and “questioning” quite a bit.

@Brobb

Oops - don’t tell me you don’t understand percentages either?

Lol, oops, but that’s not the complete sentence you quoted there, lol, hmmmm

@Brobb

Are you saying that unforeseen events are foreseeable by the prescient?

NO and thus why math is only correct till proven wrong. No different to the extreme slim possibility/unforeseen event on not getting a 5* with. 1500 pulls.
It’s only unforeseen by YOU and your math and the fact it is highly unlikely to happen has nothing to do with it.

@Brobb

Are you suggesting that if an engineer makes an arithmetic error they are likely to deny it?

Again lack of understanding…

@Brobb

If you ‘agree’ with the calculations but disagree with the conclusion then you don’t actually understand the maths.

So based on your analysis of anything and everything math is the end all of questions and should never ever be questioned, or are you saying that your math results are the absolute end of discussion results, or maybe your trying to say that no matter what the fact that math allows one to use continuous and limitless 000’s to make it sound correct it shouldn’t be questioned. I am confused here, hehehehe

But Let me explain:
Run a test 100 times and if the results don’t suit run them 1000 times and if the results still don’t suit run them 1 million times until they reach my desired result… Eventually there will be that many 000’s involved that it will become pointless and unquestionably correct and can’t be proven wrong… That is probability.

It takes 2 to tango and without questions there are no answers or room for improvement no matter what part life weather it be math or something else.

Having fun, lol

[Dan7]

[Mothra]

[Ozy1]

[Ozy1]

Why did it go wrong!