Suspicious tile colour replacements


#1

This is more than coincidence. Statistically speaking it shouldn’t even be possible, to have 3 games in a row where I needed green tiles to build up mana in a healer, and yet all 3 games i got an abundance of pretty much every other colour EXCEPT green tiles. That is not random. The algorithms or whatever govens the tile regeneration of the boards is broken since an update about a month ago and it needs reset or checked, because something is clearly up.


Just saying: boards are VERY smart
Rigged boards
#2

That’s an interesting claim. Please share your analysis. There are several of us here on the forum who are pretty avid statisticians, and would really enjoy seeing how you arrived at this conclusion.


#3

Of course its statistically possible. If you mean the odds of it happening aren’t great, I would agree with that.

This is such a common topic that you might want to check out this thread started by @Garanwyn

@Kerridoc @Rook @Coppersky - possible merge topic here


#4

This kind of thread is becoming more and more wonderful…


#5

Everything is possible. Many things are unlikely. Winning the lottery is very unlikely but people do so every day.

The issue you flag has never been properly studied. In Color Stacking Fairness Project you will see @Garanwyn and others have carefully studied the potential inflence of hero selection on the starting board. They conclude that there is no evidence of any systematic skewing, though Everybody Gets Bad Boards.

If you would like to take on the project of testing whether tile replacements are skewed, that would be a tremendous service.

Suggested approach:

  1. set a raid attack team that is heavily stacked in a color, e.g. 3 purples, a green and a blue.

  2. Video record 100 consecutive raids using this team.

  3. Review the videos, tallying each color’s count of the total tiles dropped.

  4. Publish your data here. One of the stats gurus here can do the number crunching.

Your dataset will look something like this:

Raid# Dark Holy Ice Nature Fire
1 6 4 5 3 8
2 4 11 9 21 7
3 8 12 15 9 11

Where the numbers in the second through sixth columns are your count of the tile drops of that color.


Color Stacking Fairness Project
#6

And now you have @Garanwyn’s full attention.


#7

all Hail to @Kerridoc , a man of infinite patience


#8

Is the complaint just an issue with the the color of the healer, there is no mention of a color stack, more a lack of tiles to healer.


#9

Recently I had a board where I made diamonds of all colore, excepting the color I had stacked. That board looked like a firework display, but never did I get more than a handful of tiles of the color I needed.


#10

He is that. But he’s not just being patient; he’s actually making an excellent recommendation.

If you think there’s a bias in the system, test it! I’ll be happy to help you set up a spreadsheet to do it, I’ll show you how to calculate a 95% confidence interval if you want. I’ll probably even join you in collecting data on the theory (like here and here).

Humans are good at seeking out patterns, but not so good at being able to distinguish between true patterns and false ones. That’s why we collect data, and evaluate hypotheses with statistical tools. It’s just too easy to fool yourself otherwise.

Heck, I get frustrated at runs of bad luck too. My gut tells me the boards are unfair sometimes, even though I’ve got tons of data showing that they really are fair. I’m not unsympathetic to people who feel hard-done-by from the tile engine. But I know enough not to blindly trust my gut.

So I would LOVE it if someone would take up the challenge of testing a hypothesis like this one. I am 100% convinceable. Bring good data, and I’ll believe what it says.


#11

Which is why i never use a 5tack. My typical raid configuration is 3-1-1 oe 3-2. Put a healer in the off-color; if the tiles aren’t tuned for your 3tack, then you at least get the benefit of some healing to extend your raid. If RNGesus smiles on your stacked color, you dont need the healer.


Everybody Gets Bad Boards
Time for a big change - STOP Mono Colour
#12

I have been seeing that too, me and my alliance.


#13

So it’s not just me then? Something definately seems to have changed recently regarding this?


#14

Like i have said on my post: i am not complaining. They wont change thst anyway. But we are not complete blind sillies who can’t see the obvious manipulation on the boards. It is annoying and unfair to lose just because the game is feeling like making you lose and not because u re a bad player but thats it…


#15

Small giant is always giving us the same old and annoying excuse for everything:

“It’s all RNG it is all random”" and bla bla blah.

Ok, right. We are still playing it because we want, nobody is forcing. But there’s something dirty there and we can see it.


#16

Let’s accept the premise, despite evidence otherwise, that the boards actively and by design work against color stacking.

As good players, we ought to pick a new, more effective strategy then, no?

After all, the premise that a game would be challenging and throw up difficulties isn’t itself unreasonable. So if that is somehow the case, what shifts in play style would make sense to do better with that challenge?


#17

Can you? Great. Please start collecting systematic data. Human brains are funny things: we see patterns where none exist, we forget good things and remember bad outcomes. Please refer to my long post up-thread about how to contribute to a scientific examination of this issue. All else is myth.


#18

Yep. No riot needed, just saying. :slight_smile: we shall move and try other strategy. If the game were very easy it wouldn’t be that cool,too.


#19

Nahh calm down, we’re just saying it.


#20

Definitely no riot needed. :slight_smile:

So what do you think are alternative strategies that would work better?

For titan hits, does color stacking end up averaging out across hits to be worth the sometimes craptastic result on some of the hits where the board doesn’t cooperate? Or do you think your total score on a given titan across multiple hits would be higher with some different team composition?