# Summons: should I wait for May?

They are certainly wait for those dark elves) (Almur and Fura)

OK, so you do not want to try for a little chance of Malosi?

If I correctly remembered university’s math, now my chances to get a HOTM is high (100 pulls without a HOTM can be happen in likely 25% of time), but if I got Malosi, chances will reset to 1% again, so, I do not know whether I want Malosi or Clarissa.

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You did 100 summons for a 4* hero? That’s close to like 300\$ US? For a 4*? Yeah?

Everything’s allright pal?

I had around 40 hero tokens and 10k crystals saved already.
Lost all in the process, and also bought tabard offer and got 5 more hero tokens.

This is not 100, let’s calculate.
40 from tokens
2600*3 = 7800 - another 30
5 tokens from quest and other sources (elemental chest and tournament)
And other x10 from tabard offer.

This is not 100, but with costumes I had 40+5+40+10 - 95 summons in this month. It is huge.

But really, I even got Lepus earlier than those white sheep!

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No thats the gamblers fallacy.

Maybe, but probability of 100 summons without HOTM is like 25%. So, it is 75% chance to get a HOTM.

That is wrong. Look at gambler’s fallacy in internet

Read about it and disagree. Look how I count it:
Chance for usual (no-HOTM) summon is 0.987, all summons are independent, then you should count probability than 95 summons will not feature a HOTM is 0.987^95=0.288. Probability than I will got 96 summons without HOTM are 0.987^96=0.284.

So, probability to get first HOTM in a 96th summon will be 1 - 0.284 = 0.716.

So, if I did not get a HOTM during 95 pulls, probability to get a HOTM on 96th pull is 71.6%

This is the math, not is a gambler’s fallace.

So, if you toss a coin, you certainly can face 10 eagles in a row, but probability of 10 eagles in a row like 0.5^10=0.09%. But it certainly can be, just by unlucky streak.

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Previous results generating random outcomes do not affect future results. Each is separate. Whilst at the start of those pulls your overall chance might be 75%, those events are now part gone, and each event in future has same odds as ever

To answer the main question, I am waiting for May

Agree. And then I start to count chance not to get a HOTM, but for event “do not get a HOTM for X pulls”, and if you do this, you will see increasing chance to get a HOTM.

My math is the same which used in HOTM thread.

Bro, you do not understand how probabilities work. I was in the phone so I could not explain but I will now:

All summons are independent between them, each with a chance of success (getting a HOTM) of 1.3%. The number successes you get out of n trials is given by a binomial random variables with parameters p=0.013 and n=whatever number of summons you do (you can check about that online).

In less abstract terms let’s say TOMORROW you do 96 pulls, then your chance of getting at least 1 HOTM is exactly equal to the 1 minus the probability of getting none, so 1-0.987^96 = 1-0.284 = 0.716 =71.6%

Now the question is, what happens if you did YESTERDAY 90 pulls, you got nothing and you are doing 6 pulls TOMORROW?
All pulls are independent, and we already now the result of the previous 90 pulls so they are not affecting the future pulls (otherwise those pulls would not be independent). Then it is just like if you are doing 6 pulls (because that is the number of RANDOM pulls you will do, the others you already know the result! so your chance of getting the hotm is just 1-0.987^6 = 1-0.924 = 7.6%.

That is why it is called gambler’s fallacy. Gambler’s think past events influence the future but that is not true if events are independent.

Actually if you look at proposals in the forum, a lot of people want to create a pity counter which is precisely a form of introducing DEPENDENCY in the pulls because if you have previous bad luck it would influence your future luck and get you better chances.

The main takeaway is that as there is no dependency between pulls all the pulls you did will not influence your future luck, so if you are going to do 1 pull now, you chance is just 1.3% as for every other guy in the world doing 1 pull, it just does not matter how many pulls you did earlier.

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You can think of it this way. New knowledge changes the odds. For example, whats the chances of rolling a 5 on a dice? 1 in 6 right? But what if you now know its a 20-sided dice? The odds became 1 in 20 with the new knowledge.

With your pulls, the chances of getting a hotm in 10p pulls is fairly decent. But with the new knowledge that 95 of those pulls are over and only 1 is left, the chances change drastically and become very small.

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