Being Below Odds
Well why don’t I share my numbers with y’all so you can see that not everyone in this game meets odds. Therefore, I’m either an outlier, or the odds aren’t correctly stated - but the latter requires much more data than my own sample size.
I’ve been tracking every single pull since ~ April 2021. So nearly two full years of pull data, and over 9k logged pulls. I write everything down, and also keep notes on my phone, so no chance to forget. Also, now that I use YT, I have video proof of the last 8 or so months of pulls, too (so anyone else can corroborate) - as I share every pull publicly.
I only deliberately track event 5* drops. Therefore, S1 and bonus draws are specifically excluded here. I track totals [for the month] of those, but not in specific portals. However, if S1 are included within the event drop odds (like for Covenant, or Contest of Elements), then I do count them. I also count all event 5*, regardless of whether or not they’re new. Which makes my situation so much worse, given close to half the event 5* I do obtain, end up being dupes
All of My Tracked Pull + Drop Data
From April 2021 - Present
Ninja Tower (1.0% drop, 1.3% drop)
- (Incomplete data set here, as NT began a year before I started tracking)
523 pulls @ 1.0% = 3 event 5* (vs 5-6 expected)
121 pulls @ 1.3% = 1 event 5* (vs 1-2 expected)
Below odds
Magic Tower (1.0% drop)
346 pulls @ 1.0% = 4 event 5* (vs 3-4 expected)
Meeting odds
Styx Tower (1.0% drop)
49 pulls @ 1.0% = 0 event 5* (vs 0-1 expected)
Meeting odds
Clash of Knights (1.0% drop, 1.2% drop)
68 pulls @ 1.0% = 1 event 5* (vs 0-1 expected)
407 pulls @ 1.2% = 3 event 5* (vs 4-5 expected)
Below odds
Brave Musketeers (1.2% drop)
88 pulls @ 1.2% = 0 event 5* (vs 1-2 expected)
Below odds
War of Three Kingdoms (1.2% drop)
251 pulls @ 1.2% = 1 event 5* (vs 3-4 expected)
Well below odds
Covenant of Champions (2.5% drop)
204 pulls @ 2.5% = 7 event 5* (vs 5-6 expected)
Above odds
Contest of Elements (2.5% drop)
40 pulls @ 2.5% = 0 event 5* (vs 1 expected)
Below odds
Tavern of Legends (1.9% drop)
670 pulls @ 1.9% = 7 event 5* (vs 12-13 expected)
Well below odds
Costume Chamber (2.5% drop)
602 pulls @ 2.5% = 8 event 5* (vs 15-16 expected)
Grossly below odds
Atlantis (1.6% drop)
- (Incomplete data set, as Atlantis began shortly after I started playing)
198 pulls @ 1.6% = 4 event 5* (vs 3-4 expected)
Meeting odds
Valhalla (1.6% drop)
- (Incomplete data set, as Valhalla began a year earlier)
735 pulls @ 1.6% drop = 9 event 5* (vs 11-12 expected)
Below odds
Underwild (1.6% drop)
744 pulls @ 1.6% = 13 event 5* (vs 11-12 expected)
Slightly above odds
Dunes (1.6% drop)
342 pulls @ 1.6% = 5 event 5* (vs 5-6 expected)
Essentially meeting odds
Challenge Events (1.0% drop)
- (Incomplete data set, as 1.0% drop challenge events have been around longer than I have)
992 pulls @ 1.0% = 12 event 5* (vs 9-10 expected)
Above odds
Challenge Festival I (2.5% drop)
550 pulls @ 2.5% = 9 event 5* (vs 13-14 expected)
Below odds
Challenge Festival II (2.5% drop)
354 pulls @ 2.5% = 7 event 5* (vs 8-9 expected)
Below odds
Summer Solstice (2.5% drop)
200 pulls @ 2.5% = 5 event 5* (vs 5 expected)
Meeting odds
Black Friday (2.5% drop)
440 pulls @ 2.5% = 4 event 5* (vs 11 expected)
Grossly below odds
Lunar New Year (0.8% drop)
16 pulls @ 0.8% = 0 event 5* (vs 0-1 expected)
Meeting odds, expectedly
Kalevala/Last Morlovia (1.5% drop)
408 pulls @ 1.5% = 1 event 5* (vs 6-7 expected)
So far below odds
All Other Seasonal Events (1.6% drop)
- (Incomplete data set, as seasonals were around before I)
791 pulls @ 1.6% = 11 event 5* (vs 12-13 expected)
Below odds
Totals
0.8%
16 pulls = 0 event 5* (vs 0-1 expected)
Meeting odds
1.0%
1978 pulls = 20 event 5* (vs 19-20 expected)
Meeting odds
1.2%
746 pulls = 4 event 5* (vs 8-9 expected)
Below odds
1.3%
121 pulls = 1 event 5* (vs 1-2 expected)
Essentially meeting odds
1.5%
408 pulls = 1 event 5* (vs 6-7 expected)
Below odds
1.6%
2810 pulls = 42 event 5* (vs 44-45 expected)
Below odds
1.9%
670 pulls = 7 event 5* (vs 12-13 expected)
Below odds
2.5%
2390 pulls = 40 event 5* (vs 59-60 expected)
So far below odds it’s gross
Total
9139 pulls = 115 event 5* (vs 154 expected)
Aka 39 event 5* below odds
In Closing
Therefore, you can see that, at best I am slightly above odds, and at worse, I’m far, far below… And sadly, this is all with thousands of pulls under my belt, and years of data tracking… So no, it’s not just some “fluke”, one bad run, or a single drought; it’s a literal trend.
The ironic thing is, the better the odds are, the further I am from meeting them
& Speaking of droughts, my largest ever - between event 5* - was 519 pulls; better odds of pulling an event 5* on a single pull than that even happening
So for those who think they have it bad, rest assured, it can always be much worse; I literally go thru droughts weekly/bi-weekly (aka over 100 pulls between event 5*) despite spending $80+/week as p2p.
Sooo, suffice to say, just cuz odds are posted as such, does not mean you’ll ever meet em… least, not before quitting