Summons are ridiculous - Summons MASTER

Adding new heroes to exising portals is probably the biggest scam yet on SG’s part. The odds of pulling one of these new heroes is next to nothing.

I assume SG believes that getting a few thousand whales to throw down $10K or more to get them is worth more than having the much larger player base all doing a bit of summoning. Because no sane person is going to do pulls with what, 0.12% odds to get one of the new non-featured heroes, or what, 0.2% odds to get one of the new featured ones.

Just completely ridiculous. You can buy a used car or new PS or new phone for the price it will take to even try to get one. Odds are you end up with a few hundred feeder heroes and nothing else to show for it. Shame on you SG.

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If you check all YouTuber pull before they change the portal none of them pull a new hero their tricks goes wrong to make people summoning it can be intentional to make people Pull after one a hour changing the portal to grab addict people and think their luck will be better You can think by your own

Got Topaz off a 10-pull… happy.

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Says the guy who thinks emphatic is a big word…

I vehemently conclude he does believe it’s a big word :joy:

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If you check all the threads on the botched Ninja portal, you will find a few later comments by me, complete with SS of original and updated ninja portal.

In those comments, i did comment that the odds for featured heroes did differ. There may be a case for Zynga to compensate.

Original : 4 featured heroes, all aged = 0.25% odds
Corrected : 3 featured heroes, 2 new and 1 aged = 0.333% odds

This alone is a cause for concern.

Add on: the different wording for Zynga’s announcement. AR is “have not affected”. NT is “will not affect”.

read @Gargon ‘s post

And then read on after that. You can scroll back up too. That’s one of the main thread for this botched Ninja portal.

Since you watched all those summon YT, why don’t you leave them a note to let them know to try their luck for compensation ?

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SG has decided that they make more from milking a few thousand wales than from having the entire player base chip in a bit.

Let’s say the top 50 alliances are mostly whales. That’s 50 * 30 = 1500 players. Maybe add another 500 who are in other alliances but are still whales, so 2000 players total.

They will want all these new heroes. The odds of pulling a new ninja are what, 2/10th of 0.3% = 0.12% for non-featured and 2/3rd of 1% = 0.66% for the two featured ones?

Let’s say you want all of these new heroes.

image

To get both new featured ones:
There is a pool of 3 heroes, sharing 1% odds.
Getting the first: 2/3 * 1% = 0.66% → on average, you need 151 summons
Getting the second: 1/3 * 1% = 0.33% → on average, you need 303 summons

To get both new non-featured ones:
There is a pool of 12 heroes, sharing 0.3% odds.
Getting the first: 2/12 * 0.3% = 0.05% → on average, you need 2000 summons
Getting the second: 1/12 * 0.3% = 0.025% → on average, you need 4000 summons

That’s 6454 summons total.

At 2600 gems for 10 summons, and regular price gems ($1 = 100 gems) that’s $655 * 26 = $17030.

2000 players spending $17030 = $34060000, or $34 million.

SG has decided that $34 million is worth more than having a bit better odds and trying to entice the larger player base to each spend a little bit of money.

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That botched portal just cost them revenue for the next Tower portal. I saw the refund SS. :rofl::joy:

So they earn US$19m from this NT portal but will earn less from next Styx portal. :laughing:

The new ninja portal uses the same RSG (random season 1 generator). I did my 1 pull and got Cyprian yay

Hey…you got a 4* hero! :rofl:

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This…That. That kind of math. My goodness. How distasteful to think about. And yet still, SG continue to have so few working on EP. With that kind of money flowing in. Without even giving just 1% to charity. Urgh, these companies today.

:gem::hook::heart::loop::coin::broken_heart:

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Well ONE of my degrees is in Engineering, and there was plenty of maths involved. I don’t have time nor enough information to prove to a court that there is something not entirely honest about the narrative about how this game/gambling is supposed to work against what I have observed.

Our sensitivity to patterns is related to our experience. For example I would argue that the probability of my having as many 5* heroes as I have, given my tiny pull numbers, doesn’t match with the published % chance. I’m just not that lucky.

But I’ve seen the light and won’t spend anymore. I wont be goaded into spending by every old trick in the book. There are much better investments of my time and hard earned cash.

Others can get off on having paid for a high ranking if they choose. It’s psychologically sad. And too bad if you find that opinion personally offensive.

You don’t want to admit that you’ve been hustled? You’re too smart for that right? Well, you have been. Deal with it. But you’ll rationalize it like you’ve got the money to spend and you’re getting something of value. Go right ahead. Be an easy mark. Ha ha ha.

No words…


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Well I have a Ph.D. in chemical engineering and I’m a math professor. So I’m pretty sure I know math…

But you said you had proved it beyond any reasonable doubt. Now you admit you haven’t. Ok…

You can argue it, but without actual data your argument is meaningless anecdotal memories. And it’s a simple fact that human memory remembers failure more strongly than success. So we are all inclined to feel that our results are below average, barring strong evidence to the contrary.

Certainly your prerogative and a great choice for many people.

No, too bad for you that you judge people without any idea of their situation.

You know absolutely nothing about me. You have no knowledge of how much I’ve spent, or even IF I’ve spent anything at all. You have no idea about my income or net worth. And yet you think you can make this judgement?

That’s funny. And sad. For you.

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I second that. I have a Ph. D. in chemistry and worked for my thesis and for additional papers a lot with random generators, I found a lot of strange proposed effects in theoretical papers could be explained with streaky or badly programmed rng or numerical issues while processing complex mathematical functions, and published a paper in chem. phys. letters on that topic. So I know my math especially rng and numerics.

The new FS counter gives me good database for my own pulls. Did get a Hero from FS lately, so I had hundred unsuccessful pulls. In this time I got one HotM, one S1 5* plus Krampus. Thats three 5* heroes from 102 pulls, very near (a little bit below) the published 3.8 % probability for any 5* hero. The distribution 1 S1, one event/seasonal and one HotM is also near ideal.

Now my counter is at 16, and I got Zhuge Liang and a S1 Hero. Thats two 5* with 18 pulls, way over the stated probability.
The problem is, you need accurate Data of thousands of pulls to verify or falsify the published probabilities.
You can take the videos from Ta Gon here on the forum chasing Ninjas. He made some hundreds of pulls and met the stated probabilities within the expected standard deviation.

If you see a 5* hero from a single coins pull, there must be another player getting nothing from a 30-pull. As many regard HoMs and S1 as „ nothing“ you will see a lot of players getting nothing from 200-300 pulls. Thats expected behaviour, cruel but in accordance with the published quotes, and no indicator for fraud or rigging.

Happy gaming

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Since 24th October I did 126 pulls, 5 of them were 5* heroes, so that gives 3,9% (wow, pretty good!). By checking this I’m a little bit happier with my bad pulls this month. We really remember the bad pulls better than the good ones.

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That is kinda logical because we have 50 bad pulls for every good pull so it’s easier to remember

It would not matter if the ratio were reversed – we would still remember the bad more than the good. That’s a major – and very important – part of human evolution.

We don’t remember the hundred times we didn’t touch the fire…but we sure do remember the one time we did!

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This cannot be because it cannot be … 120 calls cannot be without heroes, at least 6 of the legendary ones … well, if they are repeated, then this does not count… in this case you need to stop summoning and call tech help… chance to catch heroes is rather real… :face_with_monocle:

Being Below Odds :upside_down_face:

Well why don’t I share my numbers with y’all so you can see that not everyone in this game meets odds. Therefore, I’m either an outlier, or the odds aren’t correctly stated - but the latter requires much more data than my own sample size.

I’ve been tracking every single pull since ~ April 2021. So nearly two full years of pull data, and over 9k logged pulls. I write everything down, and also keep notes on my phone, so no chance to forget. Also, now that I use YT, I have video proof of the last 8 or so months of pulls, too (so anyone else can corroborate) - as I share every pull publicly.

I only deliberately track event 5* drops. Therefore, S1 and bonus draws are specifically excluded here. I track totals [for the month] of those, but not in specific portals. However, if S1 are included within the event drop odds (like for Covenant, or Contest of Elements), then I do count them. I also count all event 5*, regardless of whether or not they’re new. Which makes my situation so much worse, given close to half the event 5* I do obtain, end up being dupes :roll_eyes:

All of My Tracked Pull + Drop Data

From April 2021 - Present

Ninja Tower (1.0% drop, 1.3% drop)

  • (Incomplete data set here, as NT began a year before I started tracking)

523 pulls @ 1.0% = 3 event 5* (vs 5-6 expected)
121 pulls @ 1.3% = 1 event 5* (vs 1-2 expected)

:arrow_down: Below odds

Magic Tower (1.0% drop)

346 pulls @ 1.0% = 4 event 5* (vs 3-4 expected)

:heavy_equals_sign: Meeting odds

Styx Tower (1.0% drop)

49 pulls @ 1.0% = 0 event 5* (vs 0-1 expected)

:heavy_equals_sign: Meeting odds

Clash of Knights (1.0% drop, 1.2% drop)

68 pulls @ 1.0% = 1 event 5* (vs 0-1 expected)
407 pulls @ 1.2% = 3 event 5* (vs 4-5 expected)

:arrow_down: Below odds

Brave Musketeers (1.2% drop)

88 pulls @ 1.2% = 0 event 5* (vs 1-2 expected)

:arrow_down: Below odds

War of Three Kingdoms (1.2% drop)

251 pulls @ 1.2% = 1 event 5* (vs 3-4 expected)

:arrow_down: Well below odds :arrow_down:

Covenant of Champions (2.5% drop)

204 pulls @ 2.5% = 7 event 5* (vs 5-6 expected)

:arrow_up: Above odds

Contest of Elements (2.5% drop)

40 pulls @ 2.5% = 0 event 5* (vs 1 expected)

:arrow_down: Below odds

Tavern of Legends (1.9% drop)

670 pulls @ 1.9% = 7 event 5* (vs 12-13 expected)

:arrow_down: Well below odds :arrow_down:

Costume Chamber (2.5% drop)

602 pulls @ 2.5% = 8 event 5* (vs 15-16 expected)

:arrow_down: Grossly below odds :arrow_down::arrow_down:

Atlantis (1.6% drop)

  • (Incomplete data set, as Atlantis began shortly after I started playing)

198 pulls @ 1.6% = 4 event 5* (vs 3-4 expected)

:heavy_equals_sign: Meeting odds

Valhalla (1.6% drop)

  • (Incomplete data set, as Valhalla began a year earlier)

735 pulls @ 1.6% drop = 9 event 5* (vs 11-12 expected)

:arrow_down: Below odds

Underwild (1.6% drop)

744 pulls @ 1.6% = 13 event 5* (vs 11-12 expected)

:arrow_up: Slightly above odds

Dunes (1.6% drop)

342 pulls @ 1.6% = 5 event 5* (vs 5-6 expected)

:heavy_equals_sign: Essentially meeting odds

Challenge Events (1.0% drop)

  • (Incomplete data set, as 1.0% drop challenge events have been around longer than I have)

992 pulls @ 1.0% = 12 event 5* (vs 9-10 expected)

:arrow_up: Above odds

Challenge Festival I (2.5% drop)

550 pulls @ 2.5% = 9 event 5* (vs 13-14 expected)

:arrow_down: Below odds :arrow_down:

Challenge Festival II (2.5% drop)

354 pulls @ 2.5% = 7 event 5* (vs 8-9 expected)

:arrow_down: Below odds :arrow_down:

Summer Solstice (2.5% drop)

200 pulls @ 2.5% = 5 event 5* (vs 5 expected)

:heavy_equals_sign: Meeting odds

Black Friday (2.5% drop)

440 pulls @ 2.5% = 4 event 5* (vs 11 expected)

:arrow_down::arrow_down: Grossly below odds :arrow_down::arrow_down:

Lunar New Year (0.8% drop)

16 pulls @ 0.8% = 0 event 5* (vs 0-1 expected)

:heavy_equals_sign: Meeting odds, expectedly

Kalevala/Last Morlovia (1.5% drop)

408 pulls @ 1.5% = 1 event 5* (vs 6-7 expected)

:arrow_down: So far below odds :arrow_down::arrow_down:

All Other Seasonal Events (1.6% drop)

  • (Incomplete data set, as seasonals were around before I)

791 pulls @ 1.6% = 11 event 5* (vs 12-13 expected)

:arrow_down: Below odds

Totals

0.8%

16 pulls = 0 event 5* (vs 0-1 expected)

:heavy_equals_sign: Meeting odds

1.0%

1978 pulls = 20 event 5* (vs 19-20 expected)

:heavy_equals_sign: Meeting odds

1.2%

746 pulls = 4 event 5* (vs 8-9 expected)

:arrow_down: Below odds :arrow_down::arrow_down:

1.3%

121 pulls = 1 event 5* (vs 1-2 expected)

:heavy_equals_sign: Essentially meeting odds

1.5%

408 pulls = 1 event 5* (vs 6-7 expected)

:arrow_down: Below odds :arrow_down::arrow_down::arrow_down:

1.6%

2810 pulls = 42 event 5* (vs 44-45 expected)

:arrow_down: Below odds :arrow_down:

1.9%

670 pulls = 7 event 5* (vs 12-13 expected)

:arrow_down: Below odds :arrow_down::arrow_down:

2.5%

2390 pulls = 40 event 5* (vs 59-60 expected)

:arrow_down: So far below odds it’s gross :nauseated_face: :arrow_down::arrow_down::arrow_down::arrow_down:

Total

9139 pulls = 115 event 5* (vs 154 expected)

Aka 39 event 5* below odds

In Closing

Therefore, you can see that, at best I am slightly above odds, and at worse, I’m far, far below… And sadly, this is all with thousands of pulls under my belt, and years of data tracking… So no, it’s not just some “fluke”, one bad run, or a single drought; it’s a literal trend.

The ironic thing is, the better the odds are, the further I am from meeting them :sweat_smile:

& Speaking of droughts, my largest ever - between event 5* - was 519 pulls; better odds of pulling an event 5* on a single pull than that even happening :sweat_smile:

So for those who think they have it bad, rest assured, it can always be much worse; I literally go thru droughts weekly/bi-weekly (aka over 100 pulls between event 5*) despite spending $80+/week as p2p.

Sooo, suffice to say, just cuz odds are posted as such, does not mean you’ll ever meet em… least, not before quitting :sweat_smile::roll_eyes:

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