Itâs Very awesome and thanks!!
Hi @Dorkus!
I donât understand the cumulative chance for getting 1x Non-Season 1 5* Hero in Costume Portal.
The table shows 32,1% - 68,7% - 97,9% for 10-30-100 summons.
Shouldnât this be 0%?
Costumes are for Season 1 Heroes only.
Hey @Pois1 , thanks for your question.
The costume portal is a special event portal, so I categorize costumes as an âeventâ hero, even though they do apply to season 1 heroes only (right nowâŠI think SGGâS wording on costumes left this open in the future).
Dorkus can I ask whether the 5* rate all types percentage is correct when there a bonus summons? I think thatâs two distinct events with 2.5% and 1.3% chance and therefore a combined chance of 3.7675% to get at least one 5*? You may just be rounding to one dp
It is correct as written. Every pull - no matter the result - has a Chance to trigger the bonus draw.
If you add up all probabilities except the bonus draw you are already at 100%
Thanks for the Update with the new ToL Portal @Dorkus!
Possibly worth noting that the Ninja Portal is BETA only & subject to change. More info here: đ§Ș Early Information on Ninja Hero Summon Portal & Ninja Troop Summon Portal [Part of The Beta Beat V32]
I disagree. Flipping a coin has 50% chance of landing heads. Doing it twice doesnât make the probability 100%.
Look at it this way. The probability of getting no 5* is .975x.987=.962325. The probability of at least one 5* is 1 minus that i.e. .037675 or 3.7675%
In the Chart is not shown the chance to get any 5* or non 5* at all.
The odds for each kind of 5* is written seperately in order to compare the different portals.
Your math is not wrong as far as I can confirm. It is just answering another question.
Edit: @Dorkus thanks for update
@Maxotaur I hope to review your question when I find a bit more time if you believe there is still an error following @Sh3r1ff s reply. There could totally be errors so I appreciate extra eyes to review.
For instance, I am sure I did not correctly enter the formula for the 2x possible bonus roll scenario in Tavern Portal and instead took the incorrect way of directly adding percentages (1.3%+0.1% = 1.4% chance bonus roll). Because the odds are small, it shouldnât be a horrible approximation, but I am not sure right now if it is within rounding to 1 decimal.
Iâm considering breaking out the featured heroes as a separate cumulative odds as that would seem relevant regarding doing targeted pulls for a specific hero. Adds a bit more data to wade through and is addressed in other threads though. Thoughts?
Thank you. This table is great.
It seemed for months I had read that Tavern had the worst stats of all summons. But if Iâm reading this right, it has the best chances to both get a 5* in general, and a non-S1 specifically.
Do I have that right? If so, did it change, or did I misinterpret something? Maybe factoring in gem cost?
And thank you, really great work!
Yes, and yes. It is pretty decent right now, it was awful before.
It changed when they added HotM chance and introduced featured heroes. I believe that was in September 2020.
Anyone got a list of the summons odds for s3 vs costumes, events or s2? I know some are like .6 while others are like 1.3 or something like that.
Anyone know what the odds for Valhala summons are? I just did 26 pulls and only received 2 5* heroâs and everything else was 3* repeats and I think 3 season 1 4* repeats. The summon odds for Valhalla needs to be fixed.
Hit the little âiâ in the top left corner. Will try to find all the summons odds in a summary
No I get that. I want to know the odds between s3 vs an event etc. I know I can see the odds on the current portal, but want to compare.