Stones' colour distribution is NOT random - MASTER Board Conspiracy

Idk, I’ve gone 12 in a row losing with all mono and I’ve gone 12 winning to get to world ranking 48. At this point, who cares. As long as I stay in diamond, it doesn’t bother me. Once you get in the top 100 anyways, you log off and within 5 minutes, your down 350 cups.

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Mono always avg starting should be 7 tiles but that happens rarely

raids are just somewhere to show off heroes to make you buy them. Don’t stress over it. Some overpower heroes at defense arent even that good on offense.

relax about those… the raid chest is also just a trash can anyway. Don’t stress over it :slight_smile:

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Wouldn’t know that but I do know when I’m revenging against a lesser team many times when using mono I start with 4 or less tiles and when I’m raiding higher teams my starting boards always look better. After 3 years of playing it’s becoming obvious… not sure if it’s the same for others but it’s what I’ve noticed.

Yeah I’ve been the same global 2 is my highest. It’s more of a question about the game’s algorithms balancing out the higher teams to the lesser teams. They say it’s 100% random but we know that is correct lol

No stress here quite the contrary just want to see if others see the programs balancing the same as me. Still love the game :slightly_smiling_face:

It should be around the 14.3% probability of having 4 or less tiles in your colour (Roughly 1/6). Can you please record the results of a good number of raids (say 50) and report back whether it is aligned with the 1/6 or is more frequent?

I personally never face any weaker TP teams (I don’t revenge) so I couldn’t talk to stats around this. The tiles vs higher TP teams are random.

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Where is it written that if I get 6 stones at the beginning, then there is a sign of chance? that no one counts after that? Someone here started an artificially created topic that the model unit is the starting board. But the problem is bigger, it’s a combination that works and according to my statistics quite clearly: if I want to attack a player who plays with heroes I don’t normally carry, the automatic game starts to work completely differently, the stones so they can’t be connected and they are all so scattered that they can’t connect and calm down three attacks and I don’t charge heroes, and if so, the opponent will launch the talents of the weakening attack force and attack in the end, but my heroes will not use the talents and that’s it. If I play against an opponent who plays with ordinary heroes, the game behaves completely differently. Whether this is a coincidence or not is not everyone’s perception, but for me it is at least strange.

My war average over the last 30 wars is 260 at the top 50 alliance level.
This war I scored 315.
I am sitting on 12/15 wins in the current tourney.
My current tower shows 18 wins, 4 losses.
Am I an uber-whale that only picks on lower TP defenses? Hardly. I can’t remember the last time I fought a team with equal TP, let alone lower TP than mine. Most battles I am between 300 and 700 TP lower than the defense, and I don’t have most of the heroes that I face (although my roster is quite decent it is probably about 6 months behind the pace. I was super excited to get both Balbar and Luigi this month, with Ferrant being the cream of the crop last month).

Here are a couple of war hits from today, about 300 TP down and about 700 TP down. In the second one I had 1 starting tile of my 4 stack, although luckily I had plenty in my off color healer. I won both battles but even then there were some errors on my part - which kind of shows that whenever we lose more often than not we could also find mistakes we make that could affect the outcome of the battle.

What is my point? The point is if what you are saying is true then none of this will be possible. And I am hardly an isolated story, there are many many players just like me. Which means… the things which are described as being random, are exactly that. The other things are those that are in your control such as roster selection, opponent selection, tile movement, special management, etc. - and it is these factors that help to overcome any bad RNG if you play smart.

Oh and interestingly enough there are players who swear that the opposite of what you say is true - that when you face stronger opponents you get better tiles than when you face weaker opponents. Two directly opposing conspiracy theories, meaning that at least one for sure is wrong…

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I think you may have misunderstood.
What I am saying is you get better chance of good tiles when you attack a higher team and less chance when you attack a lower team when raiding (not wars).
Just for the record I avg close to 300 per war scored 361 today #1,for both alliances, top 1% this tournie with A def and topped the last titan kill today. Best global rank is #2 with 3088 cups but I’m not sure what any of this has to do with what I’m saying.
You obviously don’t revenge raid as mostly I’m revenging lower teams and when I do I’m seeing more probability of a less than 7 tile starting board (I raid in mono) and probably avg 4-5 starting tile. I avg 2650 cups until I use my raid flags and generally get to 2750-2800 easily so I’m not complaining. I’m saying from what I’m seeing with probabilities that I believe the game has a balancing program built in to it so it is not 100% random.

Yes, everyone has their own view and I see that half of the heroes you have you have almost never seen and not yet to have them, the game gives you only with those few turns what you can or even buy?

I post this at consipracy theories. Why you moved it here? I don’t take it so seriously. I was just an subjective observation from my experience.

How do you explain that the board never starts with a tile match?
Can’t be 100% random for this reason alone.
Also regarding you last question in my other thread which they shut down “What’s the boards and greed got in common?” Well I thought you would’ve worked out that one.
Its all about the money everything from raids to wars and even the games internal chat has been set up and designed to make you spend more and I think they are now starting to get greedy imo. 5* aethers, 4* mats for sale. How many promos are they having it’s getting ridiculous and I believe they’re preying on some people who may not be able to afford it. They want players spending $100s on a monthly basis.
My question is what’s the difference between this game and a pokie machine?
Answer: The pokie machine will pay back some of the money.
This is the reason why I’m going ftp from now on… I wouldn’t recommend this game to my children (who are over 18 btw).

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Yes, that is well known. Starting boards with matches get eliminated. Starting boards with no possible matches get reshuffled. Outside of that, it is completely random.

Fine… so how is making boards not random generating money?

People play pokies for the change of winning money. People play this game because it is a game and is fun and challenging and entertaining. Or at least they should. If it is not those things then they should not be playing it.

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Do you work for Zynga as a dev? You say “are not random” like you know the inside the programming of the game? If not how can you be so sure? Has Zynga written it into the games terms and conditions regarding the 100% randomness without any kind of manipulation?

I’m saying everything about the game is now designed to make you spend more and I believe this includes even the simplest of things like tile matches on a raid board by using complex algorithms some very subtle.
You lose raids, wars etc it makes you want a stronger team so you spend more, it’s not rocket science. You can’t tell me a company of this size doesn’t have experts in this field who are constantly looking at ways to increase their bottom line, it’s understandable as it’s business and it’s the world we live in. Increase the share price for the shareholders that’s what the board of directors would discuss on a daily basis.

I think the amount of pop ups to buy this and buy that has gotten out of hand and is showing a type of greed. To me it’s too much and is making the game no longer seem like just a game.

Pokie machine reference was tongue in cheek but still true in a way with a spend for chance of reward.
I’ve spent a s.load on this game, I’m just saying no more and putting my opinion out there and understand it may be different to others…

After 3 years of playing the game I feel playing for the challenge and for the enjoyment is starting to wither away….

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That’s just poor ROI. Why take the kind of time to write, test, re-test, and bug fix a complex algorithm for subtle manipulation of raid boards when they can churn out new heroes and specials interactions? Much simpler, more forgivable and profitable.

Let’s just invoke Occam’s Razor and move on.

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For the millionth time: Occam’s razor is a criterion that applies to the choice of different hypotheses that produce the same result, not a way of choosing between different hypotheses that produce different predictions.

Also… It doesn’t apply to human controlled phenomena because of things like red herrings, false trails, and the likes.
You need to step up the game to likelihood functions and cost functions when dealing humans.
Being aware that the humans might know about them and counteract.

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Do you really think I do?

  1. SG have come out and said that the boards are not manipulated, outside of resetting the starting board if there is a match
  2. SG won’t profit from board manipulation despite your thought process that they will. RNG causes enough losses, combined with powerful defenses. Push players too far with an unbalanced algorithm, make them lose too much and they will start to think that they cannot win regardless of which heroes they have. If a whale can’t win with all the newest OP heroes do you think he will think the issue is lack of heroes?
  3. My own tracking of board resutls combined with the tracking of many others players showing randomness in the starting boards. I have never seen one piece of evidence to the contrary. Not one.
  4. My own perceptions and results. I am getting better results in this game despite my hero levels dropping (relatively speaking) compared to the most recent defenses. But I am being a lot more strategic and seeing more consistent positive results - which wouldn’t be possible if any of the theories around board manipulation were true.

That is a separate topic and has nothing to do with boards.

Again, irrelevant to this discussion. The odds are low - always have been, and probably always will be. You take that chance when you roll the dice. Usually you end up feeling disappointed, occasionally you feel elated (like this month I managed to pull Luigi)

Do you raid with mono attack teams only?
Do you revenge raid?

No, I stay as far away from mono as possible as I don’t like the heavy dependency on RNG. But the hundreds of raids for which I tracked starting boards I played completely mono.

Rarely, I am too lazy to do it. But I do on occasion.

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