I’ve recorded and processed all my fights for about half a year. I’ve played mono teams all this time and registered exactly how many tiles appeared from the (varying) colour of my mono team, compared to the statistical expectation of once in every five tiles. I’ve made many interesting observations, that I’m planning to share here in time. For now a couple of the most important ones:
The totals over half a year of raids, tournaments and war, nicely added up to almost exactly 100% of the expected amount
I know the feeling of getting screwed by the game all to well. What I found was, that I was right about it often, but not always. Specifically in fights against tougher opponents, I would feel that the boards let me down when in fact the boards were fine in numbers.
You only need to get around 15% too few tiles of your colour during a raid, to be drastically affected by it, making you feel like you’re getting way less. This is because the odds of being able to match 3 of them decrease in a very high rate as the amount of usable tiles gets less.
When both the starting board and the first 6 turns give you on average 30% too few tiles, you’re already very likely to lose against an opponent of your own size.
So it’s not true that the tiles are structurally not in your favour. The problem is that small fluctuations in the number of usable tiles are blown out of proportion by match-3.