Stones' colour distribution is NOT random - MASTER Board Conspiracy

I did 6 raids in the last hour, 4 with mono-colored teams and 2 with 4-1 configuration. I won all 6, I even had a first move on-color diamond right beneath the tank in one of them. I also lose sometimes with mono-teams because tiles don’t come. It is random.

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What exactly do you expect from the devs to prove? What data to show? Randomness cannot be proved. Would be a paradox to say something random can be proved is random indeed. Anything else which is not a certain algorithm, is random by definition. And everyone here knows that much; the possibilities of combinations between colours and heroes are infinite and therefore, there is no certain algorithm. Therefore everything is random. Can your mind understand that? :man_facepalming:

There are thousands of data points collected by fellow players, e.g. Color Stacking Fairness Project and Color Stacking and Raids, and explanatory threads of probability, e.g. Color Stacking: The Odds.

If you’re unhappy with those data studies, you could certainly conduct your own.

Ultimately you’re entitled to believe whatever you’d like.

Personally, I believe the game designers, developers, and staff when they tell us that the boards are random.

If I thought they were all liars who were gaslighting us, I certainly wouldn’t play this game.

You’re welcome to continue discussing your opinion, collecting data, or debating whether Small Giant is misleading you — but please do be mindful of Forum Rules, and refrain from insulting fellow players. I’m sure that’s not your intention, just a reminder to be careful in your choice of words.

As I don’t think I can contribute any more information to this thread at the moment other than pointing to the Small Giant Staff statements and player-conducted data studies that we’ve already looked at, I’ll go back to ignoring this thread again for now. If you or anyone else needs me, feel free to tag me. :slightly_smiling_face:

Thanks, and Happy New Year! :partying_face:


The post above contain statistical approach that prove it is indeed random.

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I believe the tiles are random. Each tile could be any color. Notice I did not say board. Think about each tile as it is generated being one of five colors. Very easy to see a board as not random.

I’m also going to add this latest topic that was just created: Color Stacking Stats

Click to see spoiler of the conclusion

If you look farther up this thread there is a comprehensive amount of data collected that shows the board are random with 95% certainty. So, yes we can reach objective truth.

As i have stated MANY MANY TIMES, the currently accepted premise based on what the devs have told us is that boards are random. If you disagree then the onus is on you to provide data that shows they are not.

We already have shown that they are.

As an aside, keeping in mind that most scientists believe there is an all-encompassing unifying theory to explain the universe, there is technically speaking no such thing as random. What we have is pseudo-random – as close as we can get.

You might wanna read that again, i didn’t call anybody any names. I described (exaggerating) how the dev team see fellow players who complain about manipulated boards.

What data to show? Are you seriously asking me this? The dev team have access to any kind of information. To give you an example, I work with moderately large datasets, and if any party asks, i can provide any sample from any period and report the results. So we could easily be provided on how many matches are made in certain type of raid clashes.

The absurdity of this argument shows itself when players start to collect data by themselves and prove the randomness, don’t you think?

Happy new year to you, too.

I would just like to conclude by adding that I am not planning on leaving the game any time soon, it keeps offering fun to me. And in my earlier posts I stated that the very reason why this kind of board manipulation would be there is to prevent the game from breaking.
But all I am seeing here is taking the players’ observations lightly and dance around them chanting the generic official statements that offer no evidence at all.

The other thing being done is providing data collected by fellow players that is not able to suggest anything more than tile production, which is not the issue in question here.

This is just sad, with so little understanding of statistics, waving ‘proof’ into our faces.

You might try snuggling up to the tile counts at night, as it might have more use in that than supporting the dev team’s claims (which is complete definition of absurdity, why would we need that second hand proof in the first place?). The tiles generated are balanced among the colors but that fact is not the sufficient condition for the board randomness.

If you work with data and statistics you would know you can’t prove an hypothesis such as you want to, only provide confirming evidence within bounds of probabilities.

All the extensive data collected so far strongly supports the devs’ statement that it is random

That is right, you cannot prove the randomness, so why is everybody throwing (second hand) ‘proofs’ in here?

What the dev team can do, in fact, is providing data from random samples. It would be such an easy task, data on the matches made in raids stacking against tank, raids not stacking against tank, raids with rainbow teams and so on. This would give us whether the tiles and matches that deal damage are significantly different or not within a certain confidence interval.

Look just stop… The Devs aren’t going to do that so stop making the same statements over and over.

Besides if you’re having fun why do you care?

Tbh I’m pretty done with this whole topic… People who think the code manipulates the board will always think that.
People who believe the Devs and the testing completed by player initiative will always think that too…

It’s a pointless circular argument which just wastes everyone’s time with its incessantness…

@Garanwyn the author of this thread:

Is statistic lecturer.

Stupid question, but why they should?
I mean, they provided the game and they confirmed it is random. If you don’t believe, it’s up to you to provide a proper dataset that’s confirming your view.

There are the results of some hundreds or thousands of boards, that already have been checked and it has been confirmed, by a couple of member, that the boards are as random as a technical “pseudo” random automatism can be.

My advice for the new year, arrange yourself with the way the game is designed and enjoy it or leave and try to find an open source game that meets your expanses.

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And I’ve already read the thread, what it proves is there is no significant difference between occurence of colors, that doesn’t qualify to call the board random as it doesn’t take into account the position of the tiles.

Thank you for the advice but I will keep on doing as I please

You’re right in at least that one statement. Not the way you intended though.