Stones' colour distribution is NOT random - MASTER Board Conspiracy

[Little_Infinity]

I posted this (linked below) that I feel sheds some light on this issue.

2 or 3 strong color heroes in titan battle?

I’ve tried using 3 of a colour and got frustrated. (Readers of my other posts on this board will know that I frustrate easily, so maybe that opinion doesn’t count for much). Looking at it more logically: If you now eliminate 2 other effective colours from the board, I would say you are more statistically likely to get unfavourable boards than favourable. So although I think your highest individual score would be much higher with triple colour (for the odd time you get a favourable board) I wou…

I think there’s a form of confirmation bias going on here (or at least an anti-confirmation bias). You are fielding 2 of a colour (or 3). So you are looking for a board that has that colour. When you see a board that has a paucity of that colour (which is actually statistically more likely than not) you feel like ‘the system is against me’.

So, to make the case that the system really is against you, you not only have to post all the boards in which your strong colour is not prevalent (and to make the case, they need to be not prevalent for the entire duration of the encounter)… but also post the cases where they are prevalent for you (on the same basis). You then need to determine if the proportion of the time in which they were strongly prevalent vs. not prevalent is at odds with the normal distribution of this. (Good luck with that).

I expect you’d have a hard time gaining conclusive proof. Why? Because really you only expect every 5th layout that is strong in any 1 colour on average to happen to be strong in ‘your’ colour. How often do you get a board obviously strong in any 1 colour? Not very. But only 1 in 5 of those rare beasties (on average) will be the colour you are looking for. (And any board strong in a colour other than the one you want will attract your attention and make you feel it is unfair).

And now the other (probably more important) factor: If you are tripling in a colour, what are you going to do the first time you see any of that colour that you can match? You use it. And what do you do with the 2 other colours that don’t score you points? You leave them. So what happens over time? You denude the board of the colours you ‘like’ and leave an excess of the colours that are useless to you. When you see this built up accumulation after a time it is easy to think “The game is cheating me. I only see colours that are of no use to me”).

Been there, done that. This is why I’m pretty sure (in my mind at least) that fielding more than 2 of a colour will ultimately prove to be a frustrating strategy.