I agree 100% with Fizban. You have a slightly better chance when feeding one at a time, because you can level up multiple times using the same number of heroes. Occasionally you get lucky and level the same hero’s special 2x in a row.
I’m not really sure where Patrickcw is getting the idea that feeding them one at a time has a lower chance than 10 at a time…
It’s been a long time since I had a math class, but I’m pretty sure 10 x 2% is the same as 1 x 20%. Unless something has changed since my school days with “new math” and all. Entirely possible, kids these days do their homework on ipads, in my day we used stone tablets.
The expected time to max is exactly the same either way. You are correct that the odds of leveling up EXACTLY once is 18.3% in your scenario. But you could level up twice…or three times…or even ten times. (Well not ten because it stops at 8!)
If you feed ten 1* heros, you have a 20% chance of leveling up the special. Do that 5 times and you EXPECT to level up once. You might not level at all… You might level more than once. But you expect to level once.
If you feed single 1* heros, you have a 2% chance. Do that 50 times and you EXPECT to level up once. Again, it might happen more or less, but that’s what you expect.
In both cases, you used fifty 1* heros to expect one level up of the special.
I’m not talking about the probability of any given level up though. I’m talking about the EXPECTED time to max the hero. And that is the same either way.
Ah, okay. That is one class I didn’t take, and one that still baffles me. The whole flipping a coin thing, 50% heads vs. 50% tails. So flipping the coin 100 times is supposed to, on average, land 50 times on each (but usually doesn’t follow exactly due to margin of error). So in that case… is the coin 49% likely to land on heads and 51% tails, or vice versa? Or is that a case where probability doesn’t apply?
Probability applies. The expected value of something is the probability it will occur times the value if it does occur. The expected value of multiple events add together.
The expected value of leveling up a hero using ten 1* heros is…
20% * 1 = 20%
The expected value of leveling up a hero using one 1* hero ten times is…
10 * 2% * 1 = 20%
So either way, after fifty 1* heros, you expect to level up the special once. Expected value is a long-term average, however, while actual results very heavily on both sides of the curve
I didn’t say you don’t consider the probability. But there probability of a single feed is only one part of the calculation. See my last post for more detail.
Wrong. This is the probability of leveling up EXACTLY ONCE. You can level up more than once feeding them one at a time. The expected value takes that into account. Your calculation doesn’t.
It is more food efficient to level up ten at a time. And it is quicker because you don’t go through the animation as much. So those are two strong arguments against one at a time!
Oh, hams. I have plenty of those. And I don’t mind animations if it gives me a better chance at leveling a special skill. Hell, if I can watch a 30 second mystic vision on some really dumb product that I’ll never buy in exchange for a gem and some arrows, I can wait 5 extra seconds for a slightly better chance to level up a special skill.
I mean c’mon. This is a game where it takes months to pull decent heroes and get ascension mats, I would think most players have the patience to deal with some animations…
But either way, you expect to max out the skill after the same number of heros fed. One at a time gives you a much higher variability in when it happens. But if you maxed out 1,000,000 heros each way, on average they would hit their max special skill at very nearly the same level.
Because of this, I just don’t worry about how many heros I am feeding. When my hero storage is full, I feed. If I have 7 yellow, I feed my yellow leveler 7 heros. If I have 2 green, that’s what the green leveler gets. If I have 18 red, the red leveler gets 10 red and then 8 red…
