# Special refuses to level up - whats the worst you have seen?

I have Seshat at 2/33 yet her special is the minimum it can be for second tier at 2.
I exclusively fed her in groups of 10, and all purple heroes only yet not once has the special leveled up (that is important info since if fed one at a time it would be very likely to not level up).
I am not really complaining, thats RNG for ya, however that is a lot of feeders to get there (over 55k worth of experience!)
What is the highest level hero you have seen with a super low special?

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Just FYIâ€¦ Mathematically, feeding one at a time is just as likely to level up her special over time. Thereâ€™s more variability that way, but the expected time to max is the same doing it one at a time or in batches of 10.

I had Joon close to the same point before he got his first one. But I know heâ€™ll hit max soon enough!

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I shouldâ€™ve taken a screen shot of it, but I just maxed out Hisan and the special skill was only at 4/8.
I saved ten 2* and over heroes to feed all in a row.
Now that I have Hisan maxed each 1* hero gives a 10% chance to level. so now iâ€™m saving my greens to quickly max him.

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Itâ€™s disheartening when that happens but even with bad luck you should max it before you hit 3-70.

Itâ€™s not the same mathematically if you feed one at a time vs ten at a time.

For example, feeder heroes that give 2% chance; if you feed 10 at once you have 20% chance. If you feed 10 one at a time you have 18.3% chance.

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However, if you feed one at a time, you also have a slight chance that youâ€™ll end up with multiple skill increases within ten heroes, whereas if you only feed 10 at a time, that batch of 10 can only give you +1 skill. It works out that all in all, they average out to be about the same.

Worst Iâ€™ve seen was also a 4/8 on a 3* hero at 3-50. But fortunately, this was after the change that lets you guarantee a +1 if you use 10 1* feeders.

The BEST of my own personal experience: Quintus to 5/8 and heâ€™s Lvl 1-47.

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Iâ€™ve never had issues with specials on 4* or 5*. The absolute worst to level are the 3*. Iâ€™ve had more than one 3* hero get to 3/50 still stuck at special level 3.

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Can you show me the math of how it works out the same?

I agree 100% with Fizban. You have a slightly better chance when feeding one at a time, because you can level up multiple times using the same number of heroes. Occasionally you get lucky and level the same heroâ€™s special 2x in a row.

Iâ€™m not really sure where Patrickcw is getting the idea that feeding them one at a time has a lower chance than 10 at a timeâ€¦

Itâ€™s been a long time since I had a math class, but Iâ€™m pretty sure 10 x 2% is the same as 1 x 20%. Unless something has changed since my school days with â€śnew mathâ€ť and all. Entirely possible, kids these days do their homework on ipads, in my day we used stone tablets.

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The expected time to max is exactly the same either way. You are correct that the odds of leveling up EXACTLY once is 18.3% in your scenario. But you could level up twiceâ€¦or three timesâ€¦or even ten times. (Well not ten because it stops at 8!)

If you feed ten 1* heros, you have a 20% chance of leveling up the special. Do that 5 times and you EXPECT to level up once. You might not level at allâ€¦ You might level more than once. But you expect to level once.

If you feed single 1* heros, you have a 2% chance. Do that 50 times and you EXPECT to level up once. Again, it might happen more or less, but thatâ€™s what you expect.

In both cases, you used fifty 1* heros to expect one level up of the special.

Acme

10x2% is absolutely not the same as 1x20% when you are talking about probability.

Iâ€™m not talking about the probability of any given level up though. Iâ€™m talking about the EXPECTED time to max the hero. And that is the same either way.

Ah, okay. That is one class I didnâ€™t take, and one that still baffles me. The whole flipping a coin thing, 50% heads vs. 50% tails. So flipping the coin 100 times is supposed to, on average, land 50 times on each (but usually doesnâ€™t follow exactly due to margin of error). So in that caseâ€¦ is the coin 49% likely to land on heads and 51% tails, or vice versa? Or is that a case where probability doesnâ€™t apply?

correct.

It reminds me of Wu Kong. Really good chance of x2 damage with tiny chance of x0.1 damage.

see notes.

I really need to learn how to use a binomial calculator.

### Notes

Click for notes

FIN

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How can you determine expected time to max a special skill without considering the probability?

Probability applies. The expected value of something is the probability it will occur times the value if it does occur. The expected value of multiple events add together.

The expected value of leveling up a hero using ten 1* heros isâ€¦

20% * 1 = 20%

The expected value of leveling up a hero using one 1* hero ten times isâ€¦

10 * 2% * 1 = 20%

So either way, after fifty 1* heros, you expect to level up the special once. Expected value is a long-term average, however, while actual results very heavily on both sides of the curve

This is why I love Wu Kong. You donâ€™t have to be a math expert to see him kill everything and conclude that he is good in spite of the many misses.

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Soâ€¦ okay. You seem to be confirming what I already thought to be true. Where does this 18.3% figure come from?

I didnâ€™t say you donâ€™t consider the probability. But there probability of a single feed is only one part of the calculation. See my last post for more detail.

Acme

If you feed one 1* hero at a time, there is an 18.3% chance you will level up the special EXACTLY ONCE after 10 heros have been fed.

You could level up less (zero times) or moreâ€¦

Acme