Something awesome about this game!


#102

Hmm. You have been totally honest but this is still somewhat misleading.

You’ve buried the lede, which is that when you say

you are referring to the average time it takes a free player to get an HOTM, not the time it takes an average free player to get an HOTM. There is a big difference. I think you probably ought to be upfront about this.

You have simply calculated 1/p (which is 1/0.13, which is about 77), and combined this with your gem costs (which are correct) and your assumed rate of gem accumulation (which is a bit low, I think) to come to your two year “average”. Again, I think it is perhaps a little misleading not to be plain about this.

So your two year “average” represents the expected time to summon an HOTM. It’s the mean time across all players, but of course the distribution is not symmetrical - it is heavily right skewed by those players who are very unlucky.

So we can also say, using your own assumptions, that we would expect considerably less than half all free players to take two years or more to summon an HOTM (37% if we’re being precise), while we would expect that most free players (63%) would take less than two years, and fully a quarter of free players (26%) would summon multiple HOTM within 2 years.

As I noted above, it will take only 53 summons for an F2P player to be as likely to have received one or more HOTM as none. (To be clear, this is based on a simple binomial distribution.) Based on your (conservative) gem accumulation assumption of 850 per month, this gives a median time to summon at least one HOTM of about 16 months. I think this is a considerably more appropriate way to calculate a typical player experience. (Although we would expect 15% of F2P players to summon multiple HOTM in that time.)

And of course, if we increase your expected gem accumulation rate from your pretty conservative 800-900 per month then our time estimates will fall even further. But let’s leave this part alone: perhaps it’s healthier to be a bit relaxed about the game, take things a little easy, and not feel compelled to grasp every gem that is available.

I suppose.


#103

Also consider that the population changes. To @TylerDirtyn’s point, why do so many F2P have a HotM? It could be that lucky players stay around, while those who have long strings of bad luck quit. So if you sample the remaining players you’ll find a systematic, endogenous skew towards those with a HotM.


#104

Definitely true. Plus, of course, none of the analysis considers how many free epic hero tokens one accumulates. (I’m reminded of this by the arrival of this month’s event.) Between monthly and seasonal events and elemental chests, I think we F2P players probably average 2-3 each month - let’s say 2.5.

By my reckoning (on the back of an envelope) this reduces @kahree’s expected time to summon at least one HOTM to about 13 months, and the time we would expect it to take an average player (technically the median player) to summon at least one HOTM to about 9 months.

(Note that this uses @kahree’s monthly gem accumulation rate estimate. If you can beat that, your expectations improve.)


#105

Well, I fell for it, I was really short of yellow heroes and went for a Vivica or Joon at the Elemental.

Did the 10x summon, and I DID get Aegir.

Bad news is that I´m not happy at all, because:

  • Aegir is sub par as a HOTM (maybe even as a 5 star hero)

  • My pull gave nothing more than multiple Gan Jus, Banes and Dawas, and 2 Wu Kongs (not bad at all, but not that hard to get in TC13 or 20).

  • Event WAS ANNOUNCED one day after the summon.

Good news is that my judgment has improved, and I will never do that again (hopefully :smile:)


#106

@brobb, Thank you for providing such a clear and deliberate explanation for what the average F2P player can anticipate in regard to obtaining a HoTM.

If nothing else, it serves to provide far more accuracy and optimism than was suggested earlier, while still being pragmatic in it’s estimation of the many variables involved(including luck) in how frequently a given player will receive a HoTM.

If a F2P player were to ask me, “Truthfully, how long will it take me to obtain a HoTM?” I would happily refer them to your post.

:slight_smile: Tima


#107

Sorry about your pulls! Events always arrive on the second Thursday of the month.


#108

That’s good to know, thanks @Kerridoc!

Aegir had to have made up for the Dawas somewhat - no? :slight_smile: Personally, since I do not have any 5* blue heroes, I would be thrilled to pull Aegir, but I agree with your assessment that he is probably less than stellar as a HoTM.

:rofl: I say this every time I purchase a summon, 1x or 10x!


#109

Thanks for the info, will keep in mind!!!


#110

And I will probably say it again next time I do… :joy:

Well, it´s not really really bad, but if you consider the amount of resources that have to be invested to max up a 5 :star: hero, I will not skip leveling up my Triton, and if I get ANY other legendary blue hero, Aegir will definitely stay in the bench for a while.


#111

How many epic hero tokens have you seen during the last 3 month ?


#112

I don’t know for sure. 9 or 10, maybe a few more? I’ve got four now, and I used a bunch a while back.

Being strict on myself, I would say at least six and at most 12.


#113

Did you get any of tghese from challenge events ?

During the last 3 month I have seen 3 of them at most. :disappointed_relieved: so ist good to know it’s the darn RNG again……and others have better luck.


#114

I get one from completing the legendary level of every monthly event, but none for achieving a high place. Do we also get them from seasonal events? I can’t remember.