Slight boost to drop rate of farm ables?

Hey guys, I checked before i put this up and could not find an article, if it exists I am sorry and maybe someone could link me to it, but i have noticed something. Something small, but not insignificant. (My evidence is purely anecdotal, and I make no ironclad statistical statement that what I am about to put forward is an E & P law)
I have noticed that when entering a level on your world map you first observe a bar titled “valuable items found here”. My hypothesis is this: the items found in this bar have a slightly boosted drop rate for thay PARTICULAR INSTANCE you activated that level and completed it.
Furthermore, any drop boosts are reset if you back out to the world map and are subsequently reset when you click on a different, or even the same level.
I am waiting for my day off to test the theory but i see plenty of better number crunchers on here than i am.
Any help, or thiughts would be cool,
Tronsweet aka PushaSweet

I’ve seen people say this every now and then, but it’s always been anecdotal.

I’m going to tag in @Garanwyn, @Kerridoc, and @Gryphonknight on this one.

If you collect sufficient data, one of them will likely be happy to help with analyzing what it shows.

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Thanks zephyr because i was not sure of the handles or names of the statisticians on here, but have seen their work and its pretty good. Ill get the raw data together over this next week. I work two jobs and got a family, but I always have my E and P folder with me where i write all my data and team configurations down in. Thanks again.

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This is actually much more a @BarryWuzHere question. He and @hotdamnmess have the most comprehensive drop rate data project I’m aware of. Hopefully one of them can comment.

Of course, I’d be happy to help with the running of stats on any data collected. But unless the drop rates are pretty different, it will take a large number of samples to have any confidence in a detected difference being real.


How large of a sample? I dont mind a long term project. A ballpark figure would do. Please.

How large a data set? My combined loot project is over 12,000 levels farmed.

But none that correlate with what you’ve asked; only the actual loot is recorded, not how it compares to the “valuable items found here” screen, so I can’t offer any definitive answer.

I’ve got a personal theory about it–that when you finish a level, the game does a bunch of random number generation stuff to tell you what loot you get. And that this display is an extra run of that same function, showing you the first four items.

But that’s just my guess. Same as my guess that when you use the summon gate, which “possible hero” is currently displayed has no influence on what you actually pull.

Given how many items there are and how low the drop rates are for many of them, I’d suggest that if you only considered 1* ascension items shown in that display and compared it with drop rates a few dozen runs of that level could start to show a slight probability shift as you describe. (Any other kind of item would need a LOT more samples.)

FYI, if you like farming S1:8-7, you aren’t alone … and that level has more data collected in this project than any other so far by a significant margin.


The required sample size is actually a function of the true drop rate of items. If you pick a province (like 8-7, as BarryWuzHere suggests, or a different province that you usually farm), I’ll look in the spreadsheet at drop rates and estimate samples required. It’s probably thousands, though.

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