Skewed tile drops

Almost to 500 recorded raids in diamond. The numbers look to be holding steady at just above 4, but I only tally them up every 100.

NPNKY… why should I play your way? Why don’t you play my way instead? Kinda silly huh? My way has landed me in the number one spot in the US and 2 in the world. Pretty regular in the top 100. Not bragging, just pointing out that there’s more than one way to skin a cat.

You do what works for you with your roster and budget, I’ll do what works for me with mine. But you’re the one complaining about not being able to beat him. Doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results is the definition of insanity, regardless of your global rank

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These posts give me a headache…mostly because they appear way too often (after others have disproven them) but also, because, math.

OP quotes:
“The numbers don’t lie… 42 tiles, 5 colors. Average would be around 8. That’s not at all what I got in my previous 100 raids. 4.16 is what I got.”

Why do I only count 35 tiles on my board?
Am I so bad at math that I keep missing how many tiles are on a 7x5 grid?
The average is 7.

Are you trying to tell us that if you run 100 Raids with 3 Reds that the opening board will AVERAGE 4.16 Red tiles?! In order for that to happen, how many openings would require one red tile on the entire board?(I seriously don’t have any idea, I’m not math-y enough to do it without a calculator)
The average will be +/- 7.
The problem, I believe, with your approach, besides missing the total number of tiles, is that you keep adding variables by changing your team/colors.

With much respect; the boards are not out to get you.
Enjoy.

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NPINKY, nobody is complaining. I’m simply pointing out that they are skewed. You poorly attempted some 3rd grade reasoning to try to tell me how to play… your way of course. My global rank was only put out there to make the point that my way can work. Others can have ideas that aren’t yours and are correct. I really could care a less about it, but my way works, probably better than yours. If I don’t have a green and get a board of greens, I try to make a diamond and get rid of them. Then I truly believe the colors drop randomly and I say I win about 7 out of 10. Not too much to complain about there. And FYI, most of my raids are done with 4* players so don’t bring budget into this.

Hookr2. If someone has disproved it, using facts, I’d love to see it. You’re correct, I did not spend too much time counting The amount of tiles. I erred and put 42. I was really trying to concentrate on the other numbers. And me changing variables in a truly random system will still eventually work out, or should I buy a mega millions ticket? So, for you, over the next 3 days I will only raid with my blue team. Grimm, Grimm, Perseus, boldtusk,Zeline. Having been a statistician and 3 classes short of a degree, I love numbers. Numbers, unlike people, don’t lie.

If you have your data in a spreadsheet app like Excel, I’d be interested to see a plot of average on-color tile count vs number of boards. Such a plot would provide a good visual confirmation that the average is converging toward a flat value that is different from the expected value of 7. If not, no worries.

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Guys if you want a proof. Try to play with one colour team. And tthen you will see a things…

Lexinen o don’t have it on a spreadsheet yet but at some point I will. I was thinking about doing it at 1000 raids so it would be a nice round number to work with. Right now I have a notebook with 500 raids, matking note of the number of tiles I loaded up a certain color on and about 400 I started keeping track of the number of tiles for the color I left out.

I want to provide some data, too.

Yesterday I had a raid with lots of purple tile in the starting screen. Too bad I didn’t know that before so I had no purple hero in my team. In the second match there was again much too much purple. Since the third board was again filled with purple I started a record and counted the tiles of the match.

My team: 3x blue, 1x red, 1x yellow; the enemy: 5x red (funny)

My starting grid: 7 blue, 4 red, 4 yellow, 9 green, 11 purple

So blue was fine, but green and purple were not

What tiles did I play: 19 blue, 22 red, 16 yellow, 31 green, 36 purple

The ending grid was: 9 blue, 8 red, 6 yellow, 8 green, 4 purple

Now you can calculate that 23,4% of the new tiles were purple and 24,2 % were green. On the other side only 14,5% of the new tiles were yellow.

And you can calculate what I played: 29% purple, 25% green. That means, more than the half of the played tiles where my missing colors.

So what’s the point: First: I won this match. Second: My eyes are still fine, purple was really the dominating color. Yellow was underrepresented.

The next match I also recorded. It had the following starting grid: 8 blue, 9 red, 7 yellow, 5 green, 6 purple.
During the match yellow again came up only with 14,9%. In the sum the “good” colors came with 57% and green+purple with 43%.
The problem in this match was that I had to play a lot of green in the beginning and so I finally lost it.

So I think it’s not enough only to count the starting grid. But with a bad one you can loose the game. But you can also loose it with a good one.

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Am I wrong to think of it as ONE ever-changing board?

I start with one board, and I get x numbers of colors throughout the battle. There may be a pause while I get a new wave of enemies, but the board itself doesn’t wash and give me a brand new board…

On Wave 1, I never used the gems/shields to my right, so on Wave 2, they’re exactly the same, because this is the same board.

Sorry, back to topic. :slight_smile:

Peter1976- that’s way too many numbers for me!’ I really feel the tiles are dropping totally random, but I’ve never counted. I’ve only counted 512 opening boards. My theory: I feel the opening board is probably adjusted to prevent instant slaughters. If you’re good, you can get rid of the tiles that don’t help you and get usable tiles to drop. This is only my theory, nothing more. 500 screens averaging well below the average number is odd tho…

Room I believe it is an ever changing board. I just don’t feel it starts that way if you load up on a certain color.

Rook, sorry. Spellcheck got me

It’s not only you.
Me and other players in my alliance noticed the same thing the last few weeks. This was a topic in the chat just yesterday. The amount of unsuccessful raids is increased. I even get more victories as a defender when someone is attacking me. One day from 8 attacks against me I was winner in 7, and my defense team is not changed at all. When I checked the attackers, many of them had stronger teams than mine, so I’m sure that used stronger teams when they attacked me.
Also we are suspecting change of the mana generation for the heroes. In raids or titans. It’s look slower now. Fast mana heroes can’t fill their mana with 6 tiles.
It can’t be a coincidence many different players to have bad luck at the same time.

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NPNKY was in the top 2k this week with a 3700 team. Are we supposed to be impressed with your top 100 position with your 4k team? That has nothing to do with anything. The fact is you are complaining about bad boards. In raids the boards are determined by the heroes you face. There is a random factor but you are missing the point entirely. Take it from someone that regularly beats 36-3700 teams with his little 3200 color stacked team and when 3600 players raid me I wake up with more cups.

why would anyone want to skin a cat? :thinking:

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Bad boards are bad boards. It happens.

Count the tiles. Total each color. Those are average boards. Pay attention to the enemy colors. It’s not your hero colors that determine opening board ratio margins it is theirs. With luck it can skew either way but for the most part it will spawn predominantly weak color tiles when the defense color stacks.

I fought a 2 red 1 green 2 dark today with 2 blue 2 green one dark. It spawned mostly green and yellow tiles. Same for both rematches. It wasn’t my team make up it was theirs. It’s normal and the way it works.

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A brief reminder to everyone to keep conversations constructive and civilized as per Forum Rules.

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