Skewed tile drops


#1

I was having trouble believing that every time I load up a certain color on a raid, I get fewer tiles for said color. It had to be me noticing the ones that were bad and taking for granted the ones that weren’t that way,right? I mean it all started happening when I started the diamond level raiding. Yup. It’s just what I’m not seeing…or is it? I raided 100 times and noted the amount of tiles that I had that match the color that I loaded up on (ex: 3 reds against a green tank). The numbers don’t lie… 42 tiles, 5 colors. Average would be around 8. That’s not at all what I got in my previous 100 raids. 4.16 is what I got. 100 raids… not a couple here or there. As a matter of fact I only got 11 where I got 8 or more. Can anyone explain this? Is it done on purpose to handicap us in the upper tier? I thought it was random. Or is someone gonna tell me I just have bad luck???


#2

You just have bad luck :wink:


#3

Its amazing youre in diamond while asking that question


#4

Can you provide your data so we can use it


#5

Skillman what does that even mean? I’m very direct and not much for playing word games.
As far as my data I have a notebook with each raid, and the amount of tiles for the color I loaded up on. When I get home I can upload a pic. Just not sure if you wanted specific team names or second, third, etc color numbers. I do have tons of screen shots tho, if that’s what you’re looking for.


#6

Hey Pobjaw,

this is an old issue and well discussed here:


#7

It is random. You’re not having bad luck, you’re perceiving your luck as bad. Every bad board you get, is further confirmation of the tile drops being skewed. It took a while to grow on you, these skewed boards. But at some point it got so bad you started logging them. You can’t unsee the bad luck you percieve. A good board is now an outlier to you.

I’m having similar issues with my Wu Kong, honestly. I know his misses are random and do in fact cumulate on average to that 32% miss rate. And I do get these insane miss streaks where I fire 7 of the strong tile color with Wu active and they -all- miss. And each time that happens I think “grrr they’ve gone and ninjanerfed him or what?”. I can’t unsee that, even if I know that overall it’s a 32% miss rate, that this has been proven, and that it’s all my perception. In the back of my mind I question Wu’s miss rate, regardless of the rationale and the evidence.

I don’t consider myself silly or stupid, nor you for that matter. But I do consider myself human, and human perception of chance events is full of fallacies and misperceptions. Rarely we are aware of the tricks our brain plays on us. Funny how that works. I find it fascinating.

42 tiles, each 5 possibilities is an insane amount of possible boards, even if you eliminate all impossible starting board varieties. I haven’t done the statistical mathematics, but I wager it takes quite the sample size to make any claims about this with a decent confidence interval. I’m afraid 100 won’t cut it, not even close.


#8

Thanks sorsha. I’m sure it was covered but didn’t see it in my search.
Bertus- I’m not trying to insult you so please don’t take it as such, but I’ve logged 146 raids now. In a row…no skipping. I’m not looking past the good and feeling on the bad. I have a notebook and write the number down every single time I raid. Lately I’ve been writing 2 numbers down: the number of tiles I’ve loaded up heroes of the same color for and the tile colors I have no hero for. The numbers are a bit better than the 4.16 for the first 100. 4.3. I’m a math guy… random pulls should always average out. This is not random. By the way… 10.2 is the number of tiles I average for missing heroes of the same color. I’m not sure why this is happening but it’s clear that it is happening. I thought just like you were saying, I was dismissing the good boards as’ it’s about time’ ! That’s why I started the notebook. I have used my last flask tho, so it will slow down. But I will continue to post my findings at 100 raid intervals. If anyone wants info on this, I’ll start to add it to my notes, but I need to know what all you need. Thanks for the responses.


#9

Sorsha, I read many of the replies to the original link you posted. I wanted to make clear that I am not saying I don’t get tile drops with the color I’m loading on, only the original screen. Seems after I start the colors even out. I’m not even going to try to count all of those! I’m doing these raids on 2 teams (2 accounts) without skipping any screen that wouldn’t support my theory. I’m not blaming the devs or superstition either, just making a point. Also lots of people seem to think it’s asinine to double, triple or even quadruple up on a certain color. I have the same team as I did previously and I’ve almost reached 2700 cups doing it this way, 2416 the other. The second account went from 1780 for a high to 2200. It works for me. That shouldn’t be a factor but lots of people bring it up.


#10

I haven’t collected data so my reply is based primarily on my own experiences. I have noticed squewed boards the higher you climb the ladder. When attacking someone that is regularly rated in the 2400s and 2500s I get what I perceive as more forgiving boards in general vs someone who is regularly rated in the 2600s and 2700s. They can both have the same team makeup but the board roll favors teams higher up the ladder.

The board tiles are affected by your team composition as well from my experience. It is in my opinion a way to force more ‘startegy’ into the game so you can’t just run 5 of one color and mow down every team you come across.


#11

There is no such thing as random in a program.There might be randomness within parameters previously set. Just like the roll for mats. If you consider it, if every color has a 20% chance of appearin - even if statistics can be odd- it should be just as rare having loads of a color you do not have as colors you do have.I know it is a kind of mantra here saying random, but randomness simply cannot exist in what is basically a mathematical code


#12

My 300th raid. Counting every single one. I had 2 where the colors were loaded up in my favor. 17 once! But, all of them combined, both good and bad and no skipping, opening screen only. 4.33. I’m not buying the ‘random’ line anymore. 300 raids, exactly 1300 colors in favor of my heavily stacked team, whatever color that may be. I made it into the top 100 in the world a few times. The tiles are dropping, and I’d agree with them dropping randomly. But in no way is the opening screen randomly picked. I’ll post back at 400. Thinking about making a file with all these screenshots…


#13

I think you’re all full of it and here’s my proof:

I always see guardian owl trigger his special 3 times during a raid!


#14

and it is very slow, as I said in another thread it is badly balanced, it is excessive. imagine with a smaller rival, without 5 * like that


#15

Stop hitting him with tiles. Work around him and kill him with specials. Or bring mana controllers like Chao, Li Xiu, or Hansel


#16

You obviously are just unlucky. I did 160 raids before quitting recording the data. Always the same situation of 3 purples against a yellow tank. You should are 7 tiles per colour on average and purple was my lowest but that was at 6.69 which is statistically acceptable.


#17

That was certainly a drought of purple tiles, but the bigger problem I saw was not bringing any dispellers or damage increasers against a team filled with HOT.


#18

In my experience the tiles that appear abundantly are directly proportional to the opposing team. If you attack a team with 3 yellows the board will be full of yellow tiles and few purple. If you attack a team with 2 blues it will be full of red tiles qnd few greens. Knowing this can help your strategy not only when raiding but for defense set up as well.

I paid very close attention to this during the course of 750 raids. I did not document it. It is so blaring I thought this was obvious common knowledge.


#19

There is no holy hero I have that I care to raid with, so I normally will not have one, Wow, I get more yellow diamonds than anything, once even had 3 yellow diamonds at the same time :slight_smile:


#20

Strange that so many players have similar experiance but devs still keep saying that it is random.
As many of us play old level of season 1 I am sure also many players can confirm that tiles are better on levels with 3 flags. Makes an easy level even easier.
I wish I could have same bord on titan fights but nope only every 10-20th fight got similar good tiles…:frowning: