I think it is closer to 100-120 
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That is the same range I got for myself: im 19 months playing I got exactly 133 4* mats. In the first 5 months I was not able to finish seasonals or rare quests, or contribute well to higher ranked titans, so got only a handful of mats from Mystic Vision or chests.
More than 100 were from the last 12 months.
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Thats a very good approach estimating the per player spendings. But I think we have to multiply your results with 1.3 because Apple and Google deduct their shop fees first before giving SG the money they then publish as revenues.
Happy gaming
Forgot about that. Not sure whether those numbers are Gross or Net of Google/Apple commission.
Though accounting wise, revenue is usually booked in as gross, with that 30% reflected as cost of sales.
Let’s hope it’s net then. Cos the numbers are decreasing ….
So the definition I see of “chances” is “the possibility of something happening.”
Ultimately what f2p vs p2p the difference is in probability versus possibility or odds.
Obviously as p2ps increase the number of rolls against a 1/100 slot machine their PROBABILITY of getting “better” heroes increases, but their “odds” or “chances” (“possibility of this happening”) does not increase.
So I think this carefully crafted load of horse ■■■■ passes muster. I get why you are ticked off by it, it spits in the face of decency and transparency and pretends that probability doesn’t exist.
But there’s nothing you can do about it - (excepting post it here. I’m glad you did. It’s pathetic and SG should be called to the mat for it, at least amongst those who actually care)
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IMO he is right… all players do receive the exact same chance to progress, they all receive the chance to purchase that’s fair and it’s simple.
I have spent more than that just going to dinners date nite with the hubby. We all have things we do for “hobbies” and these options usually lead to needing rolaids after
Happy gaming 
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People rarely share this information, it’s more personal than people are typically willing to be.
This post by @KLinMayhem, although quite old now, was posted in 2019, it does give a bit of an example of the cost / $$ some players have committed:
Then did a follow-up post in August 2020: What exactly is a Gacha? (Read before posting things about "unfair pulls") - #375 by KLinMayhem
Bearing in mind that, since writing that article, KLin has retired from the game due to losing fun and unable to back or spending habits…
Anyways, I digress… To answer your original question, I can’t really answer.
Do people spend a lot? Yeah. Is it in the tens of thousands of dollars? For some, sure.
There is also this thread if people are interested / willing to be honest about their own spending habits on the game:
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There is also the end of season awards, and given seasons appear to be coming out every year ish, could potentially add another 7 mats to the “guaranteed”, although admittedly will be out of the reach of some.
I’ve been playing ~3 years, maxed 33 5*s and have 42 items in my inventory, so that’s 306 total, so about 100 a year. I’ve been ftp for most of it, although did VIP for a bit at the start.
Thank you for answering…
I know, but my post was a reply specific to the guaranteed quantity before including finishing a season per year.
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Merciless RNG
This is puffery ( an actual legal term ) for “Merciless RNG treats each roll equally”
Pay 2 Win
But Empires has been Pay 2 Win for years now ( see notes )
They just got stuck on 4* ascension items earlier in development ( see notes )
Notes
FIN
On one level E&P is “Pay 2 Win” and yet, unless you happen to be in one of the very top alliances, it isn’t so much “Pay 4 Wins”. Matches are made for alliance wars and in regard to which titans to face with consideration of the alliances history of battling other alliances/titans to date. In general you will always beat the same number of titans. Game tactics remain the same.
Sure, if you don’t have some heroes you may face a bit more challenge in certain events. Just remember you can always pick your opponents for raids and cup drop whenever you like. I’m settling for platinum tier with my squad still fielding one 4* and that’s currently fine for me. I typically clear up in 6 clean hits and a couple or three goes in the tournament and race through the chests. It all works out.
If a fellow alliance member buys heroes, great. They aren’t my competition. I still typically get into the A tier for titan loot etc. because I’m a good player. If other alliance members buy stuff then that just means we’ll do better in shared contests like wars where we all win. Happy days.
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