Hence the useful thread:
#Updated 29 Jan 2019
Raids 101-300 are here
Raids 301-500 are here
TL;DR (with updated numbers):
Verifying whether raid tiles are random when color stacking.
Current games seen: 500
Current tiles seen: 17,500
Probability of drawing tiles of stacked-into color: 20.02%
95% Confidence interval: 19.4% to 20.6%
Conclusion: Looking completely fair
[20190117_203053]
Detail:
The question of whether SGG adjusts tile probabilities against color stackers in raids is a very common debate on the…
Anecdotes are not data, so it’s useful when people take the time to collect data systematically.
Another gem from @Garanwyn :
very good evidence that it isn’t ). It’s because real random sequences exhibit streaks. It’s really no different than those days in real life when everything seems to go wrong all at once. There’s no grand conspiracy; just the nature of true randomness.
Here’s my worst sequence…
FWIW, these are contributing factors to my strong preference for 3-2 stacks, even though I can mono in any color with maxed 5*. The variance of a 3-2 is much lower than a 5-0 with still-substantial benefits from stacked tile damage. Put a healer in that 2-stack, and you’re good to go.
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