Really Nice Gelato…Is this a new marijuana strain? Have a good day!
This thread is fun
Statistics and probability theories have been argued about for hundreds of years.
Let’s solve it in a mobile game forum.
As I replied…
once, briefly if snarkily…
and again, at some greater length…
This thread reads a lot like “well MY experiences seem consistent with randomness” with a strong hint of “YOUR experiences may not be enough to convince me.”
Please note (as per my second linked post) that I’m NOT making an assertion that RNG is definitely NOT (pseudo)random; after all, the odds are terrible enough at every step in this game that pure randomness would arguably be quite sufficient to supply the observed apparent-malevolence in the game.
But there is a connotation I seem to be getting from this thread that “if someone can’t present some form of ‘proof’ of non-randomness that I will accept THEN I HAVE PROVEN RANDOMNESS” which… no.
Sufficient observable evidence that something is one way and not another. Plenty of observable evidence has been recorded to support OPs assertion (on the forum and other platforms) than there has been to support the other claims that are largely based on emotions of something not going your way.
As I’ve stated above, plenty of recorded/observable evidence that supports the OP’s assertion is widely available. So far we’re only getting convoluted anecdotal conjectures based on emotions for the other side. “I did this, brought this team and 3 raids in a row this happened…Bam!! Proof!!! You’re a paid SG troll if you don’t buy it!!””
Your asking “What proof is” and snarkly saying “ if someone can’t present some form of ‘proof’ of non-randomness that I will accept THEN I HAVE PROVEN RANDOMNESS” hints at your own views and position on this subject and that you don’t feel comfortable coming out and taking this stance. Anyone with any understanding of what “proof” and “evidence” means would know what it is and wouldn’t be asking that question or doubt when someone makes claims without providing any evidence at all to support the claims (5 raids don’t count).
I keep hearing this said.
Or even a detailed description of what kind of “proof”? E.g. how many summons and/or by how many people?
As it is, I have no particular incentive to try to provide “proof” because I could tally my own next, oh, 300 summons and then only afterward be told “that’s not good enough to be ‘proof’!” if there is no prior standard of comparison.
Secondly, while I am highly skeptical of “rigging conspiracy theory” thinking, if — IF — I myself were going evilly conspire to “rig” RNG, I would probably consider doing so by starting with base (pseudo)random RNG and “tweak” the odds, upward for players I favored for whatever reason, downward for disfavored.
Nothing so blatant as 100% or 0%, of course, but maybe something like a 30% increase (or decrease) of the odds (e.g. from 1% to 1.3% or to 0.7%), balancing every bonus with a corresponding penalty.
If an actual “jinxed” player tried to do a statistical analysis on their own luck, it could be dismissed as “south end of the bell curve” or even “just anecdotal”; if the jinxed player included any significant number of non-jinxed players, the overall luck would still look consistent with listed chance, and if the jinxed player included any “favored” player as well it would BE consistent with chance.
In this Fox-Mulder-Cigarette-Smoking-Man-tinfoil-hat scenario, how would a hypothetical “jinxed” player “prove” anything?
Finally, there is a potential for conflating different meanings of “fairness” here.
Let’s assume at least for this part of argument that RNG is actually fair specifically in the statistical, “reasonable effort at computer pseudorandom generation” sense.
A player who has, say, fully completed Season 5 (Dunes), been purchasing PoV (for more Dunes coins, among other things), collecting Dunes coins by filling chests as much as possible, and occasionally out right directly purchasing Dunes coins and still has zero 5* heroes from Season 5 might feel like, yeah, this feels like the short end of the stick and even if every summon actually was statistically fair, that the game should be set up to be more fair in the “somewhat more substantial reward for effort, less so for raw luck or spending” sense.
Sometimes “RNG is fair” arguments can sound or feel like “the game should work this way” arguments, which honestly can rub a lot of folks the wrong way.
(Not least of all when there are plenty of non-RNG shenanigans like the Big Imbalance Update, which do very little to reassure players of SG having anything like the interest of the playerbase at heart.)
Here are a couple of oldies but goodies.
There was another link Guvnor had posted of a Korean player pulling a boat load until they got all the new ninja heroes (previous wave of ninja heroes). There was a compilation of the number of 5s they pulled. I don’t have the energy to look for it now, but I’ll try to find it. They did do a s** ton of pulls but all got a ton of 5*s as well.
You do some assuming here. Vast majority of us who don’t buy into the “Summonz are rigged cuz I didn’t get squat out of my 2 free summons” or “Boards are rigged!! See these 3 raids!! You’re an SG stooge!” are because not one of those has provided extensive logging of anything ( I can name several that have created multiple threads that were literally the copy/pasta of each other and then end with “prove me wrong you SG shill” type of remark).
If you don’t care to track your pulls, that’s your choice. But casting shade/doubt without having anything on paper (even if it’s simply your own numbers over an extended period of time and a solid number of pulls) is giving credence to conspiracies.
I’ve tracked my pulls for a long time. I’ve had months where I’ve hit wwwaaayyyy above the odds and I’ve had periods where I didn’t get s*** over 200-300 pulls (not even a HoTM). I also know plenty who’ve tracked their pulls. Their experience isn’t much different than mine. Isn’t exactly like mine, but very similar, give or take a fraction of a percentage point. Sure there are some that are slightly below the average, but it all averages out.
What’s the financial gain for SG/Zynga/T2/Whomever to actually do this? This question has been asked of those making these claims over and over and yet none have been able to answer it.
They don’t need to rig s***. Someone who wants a hero will get the hero by simply putting in the volume of pulls - which translates to money. Those who spend $10/month or none at all are what? Expecting to get the same heroes as those that spend hundreds or thousands? Otherwise it’s “rigged with favouritism”, right? They couldn’t care less about rigging the odds to favor the spenders. Doing so translates to literally less revenue for them. Something that even spenders complain about.
There will always be those that get the proverbial short end of the stick. That is literally how odds and probability work. If you expect everyone to get the same results for you to consider it “working as intended” then I don’t think any proof from anyone would convince you otherwise. It’s like driving down the highway while speeding next to 100 others that are speeding as well and expecting that as long as everyone gets pulled over once, it’s fair. Well, that’s simply BS. My sister has been nabbed for speeding on a highway at least 4-5 times compared to my 0 while I speed every time I’m on a highway and for her it seems like every time she decides to speed she gets busted.
So no, it’s very possible and probable that there will be those with crap outcomes just as there are those with crazy awesome outcomes, while vast majority fall somewhere in the middle.
You think it’s difficult to take screenshots on a phone or simply take notes in a note app that comes standard with every single phone? I used to take screenshots and note down outcomes (for myself and some of my friends mostly). After 2+ years of tracking hero pulls and drop rates of 4* mats I still only track drops for mats from non-purchase sources. As for pulls I recall what I’ve pulled and approximate how many pulls I’ve done based on the fated summons now. It hasn’t changed outside of the hot/cold streaks while I’ve actually reduced my spending over the last 6+ months.
You’re talking about two completely different things here that are mutually exclusive. Simply incompatible IMO. You’re trying to bind the software of a company’s product to the morals/ethics of said company. That doesn’t work.
Does the software that their product is built on treat everyone fairly and equally? In my opinion - absolutely yes. The couple of links I’ve posted above along with the other ones I’ve read over the years, plenty of youtube videos of people doing hundreds of pulls + my own personal experiences that I’ve tracked have led me to this. I’ve yet to see any shred of evidence to the contrary in all the other posts, but it’s exuberant bawling that they’re made up of. This doesn’t include someone who’s tracked their progress and hasn’t had the “luck” - it literally means those who post nonsense. We all know that there is the short end of the stick and someone will be holding it unfortunately (when it comes to pulls - boards are something else completely).
Now, could the company in question (obviously SG/Zynga/T2/Whomever) do more things to rewards its player base? Absolutely. I’ve argued for it across many a thread on this forum. But it’s up to each of us individually to decide whether we want to use their product and whether or not do we want to pay for what they offer within that product.
As for the “Big Imbalance” - I feel the same way about the update as I do about the alpha aethers. So far I’ve not noticed much difference in my game play and I’ve got 0 5* heroes that have been LB2. Even when facing those crazy scary teams above 3k cups and 5800+ TP that are made up Jove, Hathor, Camilla, Anne, etc. etc. I do understand your and others’ apprehension about it, which is why I’m rooting for the nospend even though I’m not participating in it. But being involved in online gaming world for quite some time now, I’ve seen plenty of companies put out massive balances and most are still around doing fine.
Anyways. I do enjoy your posts as you’re not combative, insulting, and are overall pleasant. I haven’t proof-read my response here, but I don’t think I’ve said anything out of line
Look, I think this is an especially weak part of conspiracy thinking (1) because it seems like there is little profit to be made by rigging RNG (instead, be like a casino, and rig the game, not the dice) and (2) the downside is potentially a real problem.
Namely, if it came out that RNG actually were rigged, it would cause a lot more uproar than people upset about their latest crap run of luck.
(If I had to wildly speculate, it would be that SG might have a motive to keep bigger spenders at least somewhat happy sometimes, even if that came at the expense of odds-shifting against lower spenders. But… that is pure speculation, and I’m not even sure how to cost-benefit analyze that, even outside of the potential risk of being somehow caught, e.g. via a whistleblower, doing so. Plus, for bug enough spenders, actual randomness would presumably usually handle this anyway?)
However, that leads me to my other point
Ah, no, I did not mean to ask “how would you gather evidence at all,” but:
- how would you gather sufficient convincing evidence if — IF — RNG were compromised?
My point being that, in the unlikely scenario that (say) summoning RNG were actually in any way rigged, I’m pretty sure SG/Zynga/etc would do so in a way that couldn’t be easily identified by someone tracking a few hundred or even thousand summons and an elementary working knowledge of statistics because they wouldn’t want to get caught. (Hence my crude hypothetical above of “tweaking” RNG in a paired way.)
The real question is still “what’s the upside to monkeying with RNG?” but I think it is still potentially informative to ask “how would you tell if individual players were having summoning odds adjusted?”
Finally, thanks for some links to the RNG and boards seems like it would be the easier one to analyze as a whole because we all get lots of boards.
It’s a lot harder to analyze summon RNG because most of us take a lot longer to get a good statistical sample of summons, and even the “chasing GPanther” story can only say “I appear to have been somewhat luckier than statistically average on this 250 (!) pull.” Assessing whether one is experiencing average luck in the long run (i.e. whether your own pulls actually conform closely to the listed odds, given “long enough”) takes a crap-ton of pulls when you’re talking about 0.1% chance of an individual hero.
Also thanks for the kind words, just… I’m here asking questions not because I’m defending conspiracy theories — I know a little too well how bad humans, including myself, generally are at “going with the gut” reaction to probability/statistics.
But for a thread that is requesting evidence of any RNG tampering, it does make sense to at least show evidence of consistency with randomness (so that anyone who would consider seriously providing evidence has some basis of comparison)…
…plus to realize that if there were any summon-RNG tweaking going on, it would presumably be very difficult to detect, by design (not only because of the absurdly low probabilities, but because in the hypothetical RNG-tampering case there would be strong motive to make it difficult to detect).
Out of curiosity, I saved my 100 consecutive starting boards from raids.
I was attacking with mono or 4+1, there were good boards and bad boards, etc.
There is simple table.
“ATT” is colour of my team, then timestamp and number of tiles for each colour from starting board.
Average is 7 tiles per colour (with minimal deviation, but 100 boards are not so many). Everything looks fine.
Looks about right. About what I’ve seen from my boards as well as others’ who’ve tracked them over the years.
No, the connotation is that, per SG’s own statement, the default position is that it is random. We accept that they are telling the truth or we accept that they are lying. That is the starting point, proof or no proof.
It has been shown in data collection of thousands of samples over the years that there is no significant deviation from the expected RNG results. Both for starting boards and for replacement tiles. That in itself is not proof of course, but it is very strong circumstantial evidence.
I have to wonder why, if people believe they are lying, they continue playing the game at all. That to me is absurd, as much as some of the claims made here.
You cannot prove it either buause you have no code. But I’m playing for 6 years and I can tell you it not RNG at all by observation. Prove? just put 3 same color on raid and in 80% of times you get colors of heroes you don’t have. It’s been proven many times. So it not rng at all.
You analysing 100 games? WRONG! You have analyse ONE game and colours in it. Analyse this. Put four same colour herous and now start counting colours tiles. You will get this… You get way less colour tiles of herous you have in squad. Example if yyou put 4 yellow or 3 yellow heroes. You get less yellow tiles for sure in average in one raid.
All my attacks were 4+1 or mono
For yellows it was 4 yellow + 1 purple:
Average 7.46 yellow tiles per board.
OK, it’s only 46 boards and not consecutive, as I used previous data, but in this case I can’t complain
Yea. You proved it alright…by just making this statement with nothing to support it. Congrats!!
So, why don’t you record your next 10 raids and post it here. Show us just how right you are.
As always, do not feed the trolls. They are not willing or able to accept that they are wrong and keep on trolling.
This game has a few flaws, rigged boards are not one of them. Lets discuss the real problems:
No new buildings and fresh content.
Too much power creep
Bait and nerf disguised as „balancing“.
Underwhelming communication between SG and the player base.