Resume of how Titan loot works – Tiers, Scores, theories

From top hitters in my alliance


A+ on 8* Glacial Mammoth = 3x ascension
1xTrainer
3xGems
1xPotent Healing Potuon
1xPotent Antidote
2xStrong rope
1xWarmCape
1xMidnight root
1xSunspireFeathers
1xPotent leaves
1xIron roll
1xHam roll


A+ on 8* Dread Dragon = 3x ascension
5xGems
1xBear banner
1xTurtle banner
1xArrows
1xArcaneScrolls
2xStrong rope
1xFirestone
1xMidnight root
1xPotent leaves
1xIron roll
1xHam roll


A+ on 8* Onyx Dragon = 3x ascension
1xTrainer
3xGems
1xPotent Healing Potion
1xBombattack
1xTurtle Banner
1xStrong rope
1xSharpening Stone
1xFine gloves
1xMetal ore
1xCryatal shard
1xIron roll
1xHam roll


A+ on 8* Blaze Dragon = 3x ascension
1xNormal summon Token
5xGems
1xMinor Healing Potion
1xTurtle Banner
1xArcane Scrips
1xSharpening Stone
1xStrong rope
1xHardwoodd lumber
1xCryatal shard
1xFirestone
1xIron roll
1xHam roll


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Thank you very much. :slight_smile:

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A on 9s. Tier XI
Food, iron, grimoire dust, metal ore, crystal shard, strong rope, leather armor, wooden shield, healing pot, antidote, gems, trainer

Mai, no offense, I was merely looking at rare ascension items (cloaks, orbs, hidden blades, etc), and I remarked that i and my alliance (a mere 30 people) have regularly noticed that these items do NOT frequently drop for A+, but DO drop for say B. This is compounded by other players sending me their screen shots of A+ getting skunked for rare items.

This is my observation. Not sure what I said that caused your ire. :face_with_raised_eyebrow:

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See my post above with me getting Ascension materials (warm cloak) at A+. It definitely happens. I believe you when you say you hear people complaining at getting no good items for A+, because people make that complaint at EVERY rank (and deservedly so. I think everyone agrees this game is unreasonably stingy with Ascension drops). Usually a much smaller proportion of the people who get good drops go to chat/forums to tell their good luck. People mostly go to those places to complain.

Also remember that you see 10x as many B’s as you do A+'s. Only one person per day gets an A+. You’re noting all of the B Rankings that got something good, but are you also tracking all of the B’s who got nothing? Your complaint could be rephrased as “Over the past 30 days, 300 people have gotten lucky more often than 30 people.”

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Dude, I’ve seen that same coment over and over, many already told you that’s not true, devs said it’s not true, what you claim doesn’t even make sense. Yet you keep repeating that conspiracy theory, being paranoiac and refusing to listen to reason.

Look A+ is NOT a tier loot. A+ giving less as a score would mean that the higher score you get, the lesser item you get, which is not true. The FAQ states it, Dev have said it, logic and simple reason states it, even the fact that you get more ascension rolls in higher tiers proves that. Yet, here you are again being paranoiac.

30 people is nothing, it’s not enough data for nothing. We talking about 1-100 odds and possibly 1-1000 odds. For actually proving that it has less chance you need THOUSANDS of rolls. Even worse when you realize you have a lot more data of C and B than A and A+. So of course you get more rare rolls on C, you also get a bunch more people that DIDN’T.

A+ will only roll one per day, C will roll 15 times. So the chances that someone with C gets a rare ascension items can be actually higher than the dude with A+ because they had more rolls.

Stupid example, you have 16 people, 15 people has a 6 face dice, 1 has a 5 face dice. The person with a 5 face has better odds to get a 1 roll, but the probability is that one of the other 15 will actually get the 1 roll. After all they will roll 15 in total, so that’s 15 times to get that number. The dude with the 5 one has 1 in 5 chances to get it, but can only roll once. We talking BASIC math here.

And you just keep coming back and stating how bad A+ is, spreading misinformation and getting someone to, once again, try to explain the simple mathematical logic here. Just to find a new post to start the cospiracy once again. Please, enough. It’s frustrating.

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Great post and thread, thanks for the many hours of work I’m sure it takes to research this subject. Outstanding contribution to the community Mai!

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Sorry, I didn’t noticed it was for Rook and thought you were sending the image for some kinda of statistical gathering of data. :slight_smile:

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Just want to remind that this is NOT all me. Most of this information comes from A LOT of other players and posts, I only put it together, confirmed a few things and added the last part of it, the pattern thing. And even that, I use a lot of printscreens from other players, so it is a group effort for sure. I don’t even know all their names, but I have no intention to take credit for their previous effort.

If anyone can find the original posts from months ago, I would love to link them at the bottom and give the due credits.

3 Likes

Good post, one note is that rare ascension items are 3*. epic are 4*

4* ascension items start to drop at tier 7.

At tier 9 you start to get 3 items per kill, before that it is 2.

The odds are claimed to increase for every tier, but the difference seems small. This is just what it is, odds. There is no guarantee that in a single titan the higher scores = tiers get actually better loot than lower ones. But they have better chances. Even in 100 kills there is no guarantee that you actually get better loot than lower tiers, especially concerning 4* items. I have killed loads of titans on tiers 9-12 and think I got once a 4*. So the odds are small and that is why the variance high.

I urge everyone to read some basic probability and statics math if you haven’t.

Taking 2 samples has no value. Like I got tier X and you got tier Y and I got loot A and you loot B does not tell you anything. Or you got once tier 7 and next time tier 9 and the first one gave better loot.

It is like a coin flip. If you flip a coin twice and get 2 heads, you can’t say chance for heads is 100% and tails 0%. Or even that heads is any more likely. The smaller the odds, the more samples you need to get the odds right. Take 1000 results of loot of every tier and you will get quite close to the real %, stil might be wrong. Shame this is very unpractical. Would need some place where all players could report their results, or some automated system, like an addon, but the game doesn’t support those. But then what would we do with these odds? Everyone is going for the highest tier they can already and we need to trust that the chances are better.

And yes strong ropes, training swords etc all count as ascension materials. Anything that can be used for training or ascending heroes.

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I mean rare as the the English word, not actually the class item. But point noted.

I agree with all, my intention with the post wasn’t so we could calculate odds of rare and epic ascension items (better? Heh), but rather understand how the tiers work as a whole.

“4* ascension items start to drop at tier 7.”

What’s the source of this info? Personal experience? Devs?

“At tier 9 you start to get 3 items per kill, before that it is 2.”

That’s not true, you get 3 at 7 and 8 as well. 7 seems to be a chance of that to happen, I found one with 3, the rest 2. But 8 is steady. Didn’t find a single with 2 (maybe I was lucky). And this are my actual Titans, I flight 6-8 all the time and got a few VIII tiers.

I would like to remind you that reportedly in one of the big updates, lot on Titan were made better to lower rank. So maybe that was true in the past.

“There is no guarantee that in a single titan the higher scores = tiers get actually better loot than lower ones.”

That’s not exactly true. Loots do get better, you get more items as the tiers go up, more iron, more food. What you actually saying is that there’s no guarantee that the loot, improved or not, will roll useful items or items you need. That’s subjective. For me getting gloves is a bad loot. Getting trap tools is a bad loot. Just like someone that is using only 5* heroes won’t really care for most of the 4* he draws.

That’s one of the reason I did this “study”, people seem to look at Titan’s loot and only see the rare/epic ascension loots and classify the quality of that loot by that. And I wanted to understand it further, regardless of rarity. Call it curiosity.

But yes, there’s no guarantees of getting rare/epic items you need. But the loots are clearly getting better.

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Mai: I’m not name calling here, so I don’t know why you resort to that (“paranoia, conspiracy theory, etc.”), and I don’t appreciate it.

Arien has put it very well: “There is no guarantee that in a single titan the higher scores = tiers get actually better loot than lower ones.”

I–and others–experienced and reported a lower tier getting better loot; repeatedly. Like, every day over a month. This is OUR EXPERIENCE. If you have a difference experience, GREAT! I wish our A+ and A guys were sharing that experience, because right now they’re not.

I’m not sure why you feel the need to demonize or belittle me for reporting a fact. Honestly.

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Rook, the objection people are raising is NOT that you are sharing facts or telling about your experiences. You can share your stories all you want. The reason people are arguing and becoming frustrated is because you’re using your facts in order to support a conclusion that makes absolutely zero logical sense.

You’re like a person who saw two black dogs and then went online to post about how it’s unfair that all dogs are black. You’re going into every conversation people have about dogs and telling them that all dogs are black. People are showing you white dogs, brown dogs, and spotted dogs, and you keep coming back with “But I saw two black dogs, so all dogs must be black.” No one is debating the fact that you saw two black dogs. We all believe that. It’s totally reasonable. The objection is with your conclusion, which makes no sense and which your evidence doesn’t even slightly prove.

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I acknowledge the statements made by you, Mai, Arien, etc.

I hear you.

The problem is, I’m not experiencing what you’re reporting. That’s it. I’m getting frustrated at the number of black dogs because God knows I’d like to see another colored dog! Yesterday? Two more black dogs. Day before that? Black dogs of course. A whole month of those buggers. Today? We’ll see.

(And my alliance has asked me to post our results–black dogs–for them. Please don’t shoot the messenger, who is sick to death of the same results. The answer is statistics? Great! Maybe just maybe we’ll see a differently-colored dog today.)

:wink:

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No, the problem is that you don’t like the tiny portion of data that you’ve chosen to focus on. What you are experiencing is 100% normal within statistical probability.

No one here ever said “Every month your A+ hitters should get more Ascension items than your B hitters.” But that’s your complaint. What we’ve said is that over MILLIONS of trials, people getting Loot Tier VII should get more rare Ascension materials than people getting Loot Tier VI. Until you do millions of trials you don’t have anything approaching proof. You’ve scooped up a handful of water and declared that the ocean has no fish.

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Um, actually that’s precisely what the Devs said, that top scorers would have a greater chance (yes, I’m aware the word is chance) at loot than the lower scorers. If they’d never said that, I’d have no issues, though I might be confused at the mechanics.

Let me go find the quote.

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We all agree that top scorers should have a better CHANCE of getting loot. That in no way means that they are guaranteed to get better loot. The problem seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding of probability.

You have been given a handful of different analogies to help explain why your experience is perfectly normal within probability, but you never respond to the explanations. Instead you repeat your original claim “But that’s not what happened in my alliance!” No one is doubting your claim. We believe you. 100%. The problem is that your observations are meaningless. From a probability standpoint, we’re talking about a microscopic segment of the data. WAY too small to draw conclusions from.

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I actually did respond…several times. Most recently to you I believe, and earlier to Arien.

I’m aware that 30, 60 or 180 times in a month vs 10,000 is nothing. (Are we aware that the sample size is 10,000 times? I wasn’t, but that would make sense.)

Could the accusations that I’m not listening stop? Clearly I am.

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Maybe I’m just misunderstanding the type of conversation we’re having. If you are just looking for commiseration and people to sympathize with the rotten luck that many people in your alliance have had, we can totally do that. With the way this game doles out items, I’m sure you can find plenty of people who aren’t getting many. I definitely agree that it sucks when you go all out on a titan, get the top rank, and don’t get any meaningful reward for it. If that’s the point of what you are saying, then I agree completely and apologize for any criticisms I gave.

I got the impression from many of your posts that you were trying to say that the probabilities aren’t working the way we have been told that they are. I thought you were saying that the game is somehow secretly coded to favor people who earned a B ranking over people who got A+. If that is your point, then multiple people have explained why your evidence is not conclusive. But you haven’t offered any new evidence, you have only repeated the same evidence which has already been discredited. This is why I claimed that it seems as if you’re not listening. But, as I say, I may have completely misjudged the point of the conversation.

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Yes, for us looks like you keep coming with that nonsense theory of how B will have better loot then A+. Which does sound paranoiac and a full conspiracy theory.

I fight 7-8* Titans and I never get less than A. I’m going a 2 month now without getting a single loot to ascend my heros. Yet, 3 days ago a dude come in, made some pathetic damage, got a C and last place, and rolled three damn rare and epic ascension items. It’s madning? ■■■■ YES! It’s upsetting, I’m angry about it and I want things to change.

What I am not doing is going around making some crazy comments that makes no sense or just keep repeating it over and over and ignore that that’s how the mechanic of CHANCE and PROBABILITY works.

And I didn’t offend you, rude maybe, but didn’t call you “names”, I’m describing your actions and comments. Paranoia means “unjustified suspicion and mistrust” and conspiracy “a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful”. That’s exactly how you sounding, you refuse to believe the devs statements or math itself, and implies that there’s a hidden truth that Bs are better than A+ L, some kind of bad intention to screw people that do more damage.