It is like it is, always look at the odds! Sorry for your “bad luck”, but guaranteed 5stars would ruin the game, then they have to split the game in two for those who don´t pay. And why always a new article for that topic, half the forums articles are the same? What is funny to me, is that some think SG does that on purpose or to punish players (not only summon luck, read complains about “fixed” raids etc. too) Every day a deja-vu, when i open forum in the morning. And yes, i know that i don´t have to read it! 
Same thing happened, only i did 3 30 pulls with the same results.
| Atlantis Pulls Summary | |
|---|---|
| Single Pull Chance for Classic Legendary | 0.900% |
| Single Pull Chance for Atlantis Legendary | 0.300% |
| Single Pull Chance for Featured Legendary | 1.300% |
| Total Single Pull Any 5* Odds | 2.500% |
| Odds based on a Number of Pulls | 30 |
| Overall Chance to Pull 1+ Legendary | 53.21% |
| Overall Chance to Pull Nothing | 46.788% |
| Chance to Pull HOTM | 32.467% |
| CHance to Miss HOTM | 67.533% |
| Chance to Pull Nothing & Miss HOTM | 31.598% |
So it happens to almost 1 in 3 people.
| Atlantis Pulls Summary | |
|---|---|
| Odds based on a Number of Pulls | 90 |
| Overall Chance to Pull 1+ Legendary | 89.76% |
| Overall Chance to Pull Nothing | 10.243% |
| Chance to Pull HOTM | 69.200% |
| CHance to Miss HOTM | 30.800% |
| Chance to Pull Nothing & Miss HOTM | 3.155% |
Happens to 1 in 32 people, if you pulled HOTM happens to more than 1 in 10. Not unusual at all.
2 Likes
I think I counted 9 4*, 21 3*. 30% on the Epics is actually not bad. Totally understand saving up and wanting a Legend totally understand it! some do a free pull - bam Lianna! next guy can pull 200x and no Legend… Total gamble every time. Which sucks, it’s just the way it is. Hope your a 4* player currently because then your in decent shape or even a 3* player - Namahage I hear is pretty bad ■■■. Fan of Boril mylsef. Best success if another attempt is made.
Hey don’t feel bad, I did a pull in feb that was horrific and then did a pull in March and got 3 5*s…
1 Like
I did 60 pulls hoping for the nice 5* on offer.
Got nothing except feeders.
I can’t be disappointed as that has to be the expectation. The odds are low and they will and should stay low.
When I do get a 5* from a pull I will be happy, not because I deserve it but because I lucked out.
1 Like
Atlantis stunk this time around. Nothing but vanilla 3s
I would not say this is the worst summon ever, like someone else above said, there are a few great 4*s.
If I tell you that as a F2P it took me months to get some of those, will make you feel better? I don’t think so.
What I can tell you is that eventually you will get better stuff, just need to be patient.
If you are trying to build a team, go for the elemental summons first, they have the best odds.
if you are going for something “extra” like Kage, Tarlak or anything else, I would not go for a 30x, but maybe 3 10x.
I adopted above strategy and has worked well for me (got Kage and Onatel in a 10x summon).
You were really unlucky. I think event 5* or HotM was 2.8 per cent, so every 24th pull. I had the same situation and got a useless duplicate Marjana. Too bad one can’t buy a random guaranteed HotM for more gems.
Although I did do a thirty pull this Atlantis and got Poseidon and my 2nd Hel…I done another 50 singles afterwards and got nothing. I’ve done a lot of 10 and 30 pulls that received mostly three stars. It is definitely an average 30 pull. If I had to save for that long to summon I would have done 1 single at a time. That way after a half dozen if I was truly unhappy I could simply stop.
At 24 pulls, your chances reach 50%. That’s a coin toss, not a certainty. I wouldn’t describe losing a coin toss as “really unlucky.”
This is not true.
Your first pull, your chance at a 5* is 3.8%. So your chance to NOT get one is 96.2%
Your second pull, your chance to NOT get one is 96.2%
Your third pull, your chance to NOT get one is 96.2%
.
.
.
Your 30th pull, your chance to NOT get one is 96.2%
.
.
Your 1,000,000th pull, your chance to NOT get one is 96.2%.
It works the same, whether you are flipping a coin, rolling a 6-sided die, whatever.
Stop giving people the impression that their chances get better the more pulls they do. They do not. Each pull, whether done as a single, or as a 10x or as a 30x is still a single pull and for each single pull the chance of NOT getting a legendary is 96.2%.
Looking at it this way, when you have done 60 pulls, do you really want to do 30 more? When each one of those 30 still carries the SAME 96.2% chance of not getting any 5*?
Stop giving people the impression that the more they pull the more likely they finally get a 5*. It’s simply, absolutely not the case.
Today, we do statistics 101, where we explain how basic probability works on Bernoulli trials with multiple draws
When you do any pull on Atlantis, you have a single pull 2.9% chance of getting an Atlantis 5*, Featured Past HOTM, or Current HOTM (.3% + 1.3% + 1.3%). We will call this a Success on a pull, for convenience.
1 draw
On a single draw, the outcomes are easy:
2.9% chance of Success, and 97.1% chance of Failure.
Ok, easy enough. But what happens when we do two draws?
2 draws
The possible outcomes of 2 draws are:
| 1st Draw | 2nd Draw |
|---|---|
| Failure | Failure |
| Failure | Success |
| Success | Failure |
| Success | Success |
So, for instance, on the first line, we failed to get one of our target heroes on the first draw, then failed again in the second. That’s one possible outcome.
The second line represents another possible outcome: we failed to get one of our target heroes on the first draw, but succeeded on the second draw.
Each draw is independent, so they have the same individual probability of success. But we multiply probabilities to aggregate them. So, here are the probabilities of the possible outcomes:
| 1st Draw | 2nd Draw | Aggregate Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 97.1% | 97.1% | 94.3% |
| 97.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 2.9% | 97.1% | 2.8% |
| 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| 100.0% |
We can see that the total probability sums down the last column to 100%.
Now, let’s sum up the aggregate probability of the cases where we did succeed, the second, third and fourth cases:
Probability of success in 2 draws = 2.8%+2.8%+0.1%=5.7%
5.7% of the time when we do 2 draws, we will Succeed (5* Atlantis, Featured Past HOTM, or Current HOTM).
Ok, what about 3 draws?
3 Draws
The outcomes are:
| 1st Draw | 2nd Draw | 3rd Draw |
|---|---|---|
| Failure | Failure | Failure |
| Failure | Failure | Success |
| Failure | Success | Failure |
| Failure | Success | Success |
| Success | Failure | Failure |
| Success | Failure | Success |
| Success | Success | Failure |
| Success | Success | Success |
Now, let’s apply the single trial probabilities and see what our aggregate chances of success are:
| 1st Draw | 2nd Draw | 3rd Draw | Aggregate Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97.1% | 97.1% | 97.1% | 91.55% |
| 97.1% | 97.1% | 2.9% | 2.73% |
| 97.1% | 2.9% | 97.1% | 2.73% |
| 97.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.08% |
| 2.9% | 97.1% | 97.1% | 2.73% |
| 2.9% | 97.1% | 2.9% | 0.08% |
| 2.9% | 2.9% | 97.1% | 0.08% |
| 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.00% |
| 100.00% |
Now, let’s sum up the aggregate probability of all the cases where we did succeed at least once: the 2nd through 8th cases:
Probability of success in 3 draws = 2.73%+2.73%+0.08%+2.73%+0.08%+0.08%=8.43%
8.43% of the time when we do 3 draws, we will Succeed (5* Atlantis, Featured Past HOTM, or Current HOTM).
What does this mean for multiple draws?
Well, we can see that the probability of getting a successful outcome grows with each additional draw we do:
1 draw: 2.9%
2 draws: 5.7%
3 draws: 8.43%
Indeed, if we kept doing this, our aggregate probability of a successful outcome would climb to 1 as the number of draws became infinite.
How to calculate the probability of at least one success
We can see from our tables that only the first line represents complete failure.
1 draw: 97.1%
2 draws: 97.1% * 97 1% = 94.3%
3 draws: 9.71% * 97.1% * 97.1% = 91.55%
The pattern is pretty easy to see. The probability of complete failure is 97.1%^(# of draws)
The total probability across all outcomes must sum to 100%. So, if we know the probability of complete failure, then the probability of at least some success is:
Probability of Success = 100% - 97.1%^(# of draws)
9 Likes
If you don’t wish that even to your worst enemy, then I shall be your nightmare. I want some heros you’ve got and I don’t have. If you’re in need of 5*, you can take my Mok-Arr, I don’t mind
Completely wrong.
So let me get you straight.
You’re saying, that the results of past pulls change the odds of future pulls.
So if a coin is flipped 3 times and it falls heads three times, then the odds of the 4th coin flip is not 50% heads and 50% tails, but you’re saying that the odds are greater that the 4th toss ends up as a tails, because the preceding 3 tosses came up heads.
That is incorrect. You can flip the coin a million times and have it land heads a million times.
The next flip, the 1,000,001st, does not become more likely to become tails. It’s still a 50% chance.
Absolutely unchanged by any of the prior results.
Of course not. Reading comprehension is your friend here:
The odds on a single pull never change. And the past, once completed, has no effect on present probabilities in an uncorrelated system. So no matter how good or bad your luck was in the past, the chances on the next pull you do are just the single pull probability.
But when somebody asks the question “what was the probability of getting a 5* Atlantis hero, Featured HOTM, or current HOTM in 24 pulls,” the answer is NOT 2.9%.
Walk back through the write-up to understand how to calculate it. If you’re having trouble with any part, just point it out and I’ll try to explain it further.
3 Likes
Oh, so you are talking in one breath about odds and the other about probabilities.
You’re right, my reading comprehension isn’t that sharp. I suspect I’m not the only once who has difficulty with the way you are presenting the information.
I fear you have given many the impression that if they keep spending and keep pulling summons, they will eventually get their prize.
When the truth is, the odds remain unchanged.
I think it’s time to learn some math before commenting, pretty embarrassing.
1 Like
Is that right, Johnx?
Well I hope you don’t take the information here and go down the wrong path with it.
It would be a shame if you decided that with what you’ve learned here, you might want to try your luck at other pass times. Like Roulette, perhaps. It would be a shame for you to go and bet on your favorite number for 30 spins and miss it each time. Then remember, that here you learned if you bet that number again for 30 more spins the probability of getting that number to hit goes up. When it doesn’t happen even once in those 30 spins either, you would remember that if you try ANOTHER 30 spins, you’ve learned your probability goes up again. So you keep trying. Getting angrier and angrier each 30 spins that it doesn’t happen, wondering what’s going on - you should be at the point where it is a near certainty to come up by now…
Meanwhile, some of us know otherwise. That each spin, the chances are the same.
So if the odds of tossing a coin and getting heads are 50%, what are the odds that if you flip 30 times, they’re all going to be heads? Your argument is saying that it would be 50% which is wrong.