Really upsetting

Yes, each individual pull is 1.3% chance.

But based on that we can calculate the cumulative probability, which tells us the chance of a given outcome from multiple pulls.

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No, this isn’t correct.

Each individual pull has a 1.3% chance.

It has nothing to do with anyone else’s results, or even your own.

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Is there even any probability to check? If each pull has only 1.3% chance thats the probability. The more pulls you do shouldn’t change the fact that its still 1.3% chance.

Pull 1 would be 1.3%
Pull 2 1.3%
Pull 4 1.3%

And so on, but we know its all gambling.

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For each subsequent pull it’s 1.3% chance.

That never changes.

I’m talking about the expected outcomes of 32 pulls in total, not the 32nd pull.

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I understand what you mean. It should be (not that it is ) an increase in percentage when you make a lot of pulls. Meaning if you do a 30 pull it should increase your chances of getting at least one. Make it fair for everyone to get one at least. Example do an individual pull 1.3 % do a 10 pull 3.6 percent and etc

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I’d definitely like to see increased chances too.

Here are two popular posts from #ideas-feature-requests worth considering supporting:

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They are both interesting thank you for sharing those

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17 x10 summons since my last HoTM = 670 USD. (we pay more outside USA)
I’m convinced something is wrong. Gonna hire IT experts to check our network traffic for scripts and some other niggling questions. The game has been doing funny things lately. If we are being screwed I wanna know

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I don’t consider it lucky to get 10. It’s impossible to max even one duplicate 5*, without spending big$ on mats. “Lucky” fellow will have to feed 8 away. That’s hard to do.

But I do agree it hurts to pull hard and not get HOTM. 135 pulls without one for me. But hey I did get 3 Margaret’s that aren’t worth feeding.

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Wow that’s worst then me sorry you didn’t get what you want

Sorry you didn’t get what you want either hard earned money wasted for nothing even if we chose to do it. Hopefully we get more for what we spend

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Another way to think about these odds is to think about it prospectively:

I’m about to hit the 30x Atlantis summons button. What are the odds at the end that I’ll see at least one bonus draw?

The answer is not 1.3%, but instead 1 - (100% - 1.3%)^30 = 32.5%

Intuitively we know that the odds of flipping a coin 10 times and not seeing heads even once are much lower than 50/50, even though the odds on each toss are 50/50.

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How does the bonus draw work?
I had one randomly today. I had an epic coin and got a Brienne (my second) and then it gave me a bonus draw, and I received Miki. But how is a bonus draw triggered?

I see mention of a bonus chest in Atlantis but nothing for a bonus draw…? Thanks in advance

Every summons (except from dailies or troops) has a 1.3% chance of triggering the bonus, which 100% gives you the HotM. If you do a 10x or 30x, then the bonus draws are allmshown at the end.

Furthermore, each bonus draw itself has a 1.3% chance of getting a bonus draw. In theory you could get a million HotM from a single draw (with astronomically small odds).

[the odds of getting even ten are 1.38E-19]

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If you pull one hero you have 1.3% chance of getting hotm
If you do 10 pulls each pull has 1.3% chance of getting hotm
If you do 30 pulls each pull has 1.3% chance of getting hotm

That correct?

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@Dudeious.Maximus Yes that is 100% correct. :wink:

Thought so, maybe easier for people to understand that way of it, instead of a long comment with loads of numbers and % signs! No disrespect to the mods but sometimes just simple Is all you need!

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I call it dummified down for me LOL. :crazy_face:

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The idea of increasing the percentage the more pulls you do, even to the extreme of it eventually becoming guaranteed 100% that you’ll get something really good… that isn’t a new idea.

However, this idea comes with a big concern: it would allow “big spenders” to gain a huge advantage by just doing so many pulls that they would eventually get those automatic awesome heroes. As it is now, if someone is willing to spend money like crazy, they can pull and pull and pull and may eventually get what they want. But nothing is guaranteed.

At a certain point… do they just put a price tag on a hero and you just buy it directly? Because that’s essentially what it would be, if you make it guaranteed after X pulls.

Good gaming!

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The problem is 1.3% equates to one in 77 so people expect they should get a 5* within 77 pulls. When they don’t, they think the game is rigged against them.

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