Real Odds of Summoning the Hero of The Month

I tried to pull a holy hero using 600 gems( 2 pulls) and received a bonus pull with which I acquired Zeline. However I have yet to gain a descent hero from training camp13. It’s a lottery for sure, spend enough money to have fun if you need, but the odds are simply that…odd! I try to enjoy my failures as much as my successes.

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the odds for TC 13 (elite) are basically 4-5% 4 star, the rest 3 star. TC20 is much better for getting beyond 3* heroes.

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While I’ve had insanely good luck with my TC lvl 13, I have to say that I consider Lvl 13 to be largely a Waste of time. You are much better served just running two or three TC at lvl 11 until you can get one up to Lvl 20 and then keep that one churning. Get a second one up to Lvl 20 then keep two churning til you have all of the 5 stars available that way. After that, do what you want but I’d recommend running them all at lvl 11 for or lvl 5 through 9 depending on what element you are focusing on at the moment for feeder heroes.

I’ve gotten Nine 5 star heroes from my Lvl 20 TC’s and cut back about a month and a half ago to 1 lvl 20 TC. currently have all of the 5 star heroes available through the lvl 20 TC, so I’m letting the queue run out on the Lvl 20 and cutting it back to lvl 11 for feeder heroes.

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Here’s an update,
So since my last post 4 days ago I have done another 33 or 34 summons and guess what? Still no Zeline! I’m over 200 summons for February now, I know. That’s not bad odds, that’s just bullsh*t. It won’t happen again, I can tell you that much. :face_with_symbols_over_mouth:

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For very low or total f2p folks, there aren’t that many opportunities to get 4-5 star heros. While they should absolutely make getting to TC20 a priority, running tc13s while iron storage and SH upgrades is definitely worth it, allowing for occasional 4 star as well as building a bench of strong 3s to use in the meantime.

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@Dante2377
I would normally agree except that I had so far 20x3*+0x4* from TC13!!
The randomness should be less random…it’s very easy to build a hidden counter for each player to ensure a success every so many failures to eliminate the complete randomness and such flukes as mine in this post and the following where it seems like the more you spend the less likely you are to get specials in order to keep spending while if you are a f2p then might as well get the specials since you are not going to spend on gems anyways!!

@D.D

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I agree with you on the counter thing, think it would be great. I doubt they would implement something like that though, as the more we spend, the more they profit. I don’t believe they are going to intentionally cut into that. Great idea though! :wink:

They should actually see it as a way to get spenders keep spending.
If you don’t get a HOTM no matter what you spend, you are also likely to stop spending (as I did)…while if you know you will get that HOTM eventually, you will spend until you get the HOTM and then start spending again once the next HOTM is around!

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Yeah, that’s true. I think it’s a short-sighted point of view to not have something like your suggesting. It would be better for them and more profitable in the long run if they did add something like that, for sure.

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Yeah I gave up on Zeline too. It was disheartening to hear that one of my alliance mates got 3 of them in just one 10x pull and after polling my alliance most got her on average in 1 out of 30 pulls. Me and one other alliance member did more pulls than anyone and never got it.

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Same here, one of my alli members had 9 at one point, 2-3 more have 5-6. Yet me and 2 others did 100 plus summons or more and didn’t get a single one.

Update:
So I never did get Zeline, even after doing 10-15 more pulls for her on the 28th. So I gave up. I figured I’d give it a shot for Delilah (I’m hard-headed I guess, lol). Well, low and behold, I got her today with the 2nd 10x green elemental I did! I tried one 10x yesterday as well, so with 3 10x pulls total, I got a HoTM. That’s the normal odds I see and hear about as well, on average at least, 1 in 30 pulls, give or take. I am happy about getting Delilah though! :grinning:

Thank you to all who commented and added your thoughts. I guess we never will know the true odds…

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They will never put a counter in to ensure a hotm pull after x failures, it’s tantamount to putting a price on the card ( a high one) in which case they may as well sell it direct in the shop.

Unfortunately in a game with many 1000s of active players, the maths say if the hotm chance is 2% there will be many people who make 200 pulls and don’t get anything.

There are various debates about whether using paid for gems is actually gambling or not, but clearly NOT knowing the odds for pulls is very frustrating to a large proportion of the player base.

I don’t see any reason for SG not to publish some of the odds such as for hotm, how can it harm the game? At least players can then see that they have been super lucky or unlucky. It becomes a matter of calculation rather than speculation, and much of the speculation on these forums about drop rates its often negative and harmful.

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For the simple reason that a large part of gambling success comes from the punters not knowing / realising the odds up front. I’d expect a reasonable portion of SG’s income comes from people spending at early stages until they meet the realisation that chances of 5* / HOTM are miniscule. By then they’ve already committed money.

Personally I’m with @Ragon et al on this one… I feel the low odds do ultimately discourage ongoing spend for the average punter. It certainly has on my part - stopped spending some time back because of the low odds on summons. (I have invested in the VIP card to be honest, but that’s more for the utility of the 2nd builder than the gems).
I feel that providing some form of edge in odds after a long run (especially if it’s after spend) would encourage more people to continue to spend. This would raise the inevitable arguments of F2P versus P2W, however…

(Edit:
A non-controvertible support of this argument is the return rate that gambling houses put on slot machines. There is ‘a magic number’ that they need to return to the punter for them to remain popular. Get too greedy and the punters stop spending on them. I think the magic number is something like 90% return on average.)

I expect, however, that the majority of SG’s income probably comes from the minority of Big Spenders. As this particular part of the customer base evidently don’t particularly let the odds influence their spend (otherwise they would have stopped spending, wouldn’t they?), this just proves or reinforces SG’s business model. In fact if this is the case, it then works AGAINST SG’s interests to boost chances of 5*/HOTM on a string of unsuccesful spend, as it will then fill the big spenders’ Hero bench sooner, and shorten the period in which they continue to spend big.

(I’d be very interested to see the breakdown of SG’s income… as to what proportion of their income comes from what proportion of players. Obviously they wouldn’t publish that.)

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Thanks Infinity ))

The remark about fruit machine sent me off on a flurry of research, resulting in discovering Variable-Ratio Schedules. Fascinating stuff indeed.

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Nice… teaching me something new while I’m teaching you something new :smiley:
I was not aware of the term ‘variable ratio schedule’ although I was aware of its concept.

Yup… I think SG may need to tweak their variable ratio schedule, but as per my previous post, this very much depends on from where the bulk of their money comes. Those willing to spare more cash for the game would be willing to wait longer to see that cash rewarded… so if the bulk of income is coming from that sector, it’s worthwhile keeping the schedule more ‘mean’ to promote their continued spend. If the bulk of income comes from the ‘average’ punter who is more cost-sensitive and thereby more sensitive to more immediate result for their spend, however, then I feel their current ratio is off, and they are discouraging spend.

Pretty sure SG know about this and are tailoring their ratio to where the money is… which may well be to the frustration of the ‘average’ player.

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Like @Little_Infinity, I purchased the VIP account, especially for the convenience of the second builder but also to have some gems to buy the occasional perk such as extra hero slots (I can’t believe you have to pay 50 gems for just 5 extra hero slots…this is a clear example of get as much as you can from those willing to pay whatever for whatever).

At one point I was tempted to go for the $130 (€109.99) for the King’s Treasure but then the feeling of frustration for the following points counseled me otherwise:

  • the recent memory of 80+ summons for no HOTM & only 1 decent 5* Hero
  • the fact that I am paying €109.99=$130 for the same booster that US buyers get for $90 or $100 max
  • the false claim that this was some 4000% offer!! Based on what??! On the arbitrary and highly inflated gem price given to the consumables (battle items mainly) in the offer??! Unbelievable!!
  • if someone is paying this much, he/she is obviously not interested in your axes (I have 50+ of these…I don’t need the other 10), normal summon tokens (basically forcing me to summon feeders) and World energy flasks (again I have 11 of these in stock and don’t know what to do with them while I would have loved Raid Flasks)!! Why not increase the gems to let the buyer choose what type of flasks they want or what summons they want to do?

Unfortunately, with the right real promo, I might have fallen for it once again…luckily the offer was poorly formulated and I managed to resist :slight_smile:

This is same as the Featured Offers in the Shop! Seriously?!! 1500 gems for 4x Epic Summon Tokens costing (2600/10*4=) 1040 gems plus a handful of feeders!! Is this an offer or what?? I would have purchased so many of these if they were at 1000 gems! But maybe this has something to do with the “variable rip-off ratio schedule”, I guess!!
:cry:

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Trade you those World energy flasks. I never have enough… :sob:

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Hi @Rook and I want your Raid Flasks…I never have enough :sob:

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Почему так сделал 7призывов х-10 а героя месяца нету одни 3и 4герои

Minimum spend. Buy a dragon and get most gems that way, occasionally buying specials packs to make it up.
Gravymaker random token from a Titan chest.
Since then i have collected Onatel. Evelyn and Kageboro.
One came from Atlantis coins. Another from a token after having had a 10 roll. Think it was a pull.
Most of my Heroes come from TC 20.
I am having a ball with 3 almost finished. Kageboro needs tabards and so do i.
What really blows me away is they are colours. Blue to go.
I don’t think its simply odds based. If you spend $100s good luck and thanks.
But a million $8 is just as nice.
Players like me have to grind. I am not waving the green and expecting the best. I realised it was a slog a year ago. And it was just after a year, with Gravy and a couple TC20 fully ascended. That the others dropped.
It felt like a reward.
A bread and butter $10-20 player needs a break or they get bored. And the challenge of ascending these things has given me a great team, and that pays their rent and wages.
I am sure there is an effort grade in the calculations.
If not then those HOTM have screwed my luck on winning lotto.

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