Well, there we have the first positive outcome of our discussion: you can add the word ‘bloedzuiger’ to your list of Dutch words Let me add another one: een nieuw begin (a new start)
Okay, new start. First of all, and I really want to emphasize this: my complaint is not that the game is against me. It may have come across that way, but it really isn’t. My complaint is that the outcome of raids seems to be predetermined in far too many cases. This is (was? I’ll come back to that) also true for winning raids. I emphasized the games where I lost because, yes, those are the most frustrating. But this doesn’t change my complaint to “I’m losing too many raids”.
I also don’t claim that this presumed predetermination is something that was deliberately built in. I don’t know the reason, I just know what I observe. So let’s get back to that.
But first though, what ticked me off? Well, there are a couple of aspects here. First of all, before I wrote my first post, I’d been telling myself for weeks that this must be just perception, again and again. Until things got so absurd, that I finally ruled that possibility out. Secondly, we all have personal weaknesses and one of mine is a clearly above average need to be taken seriously. I’m especially allergic to people who are just joining discussions to win them. I know all their tricks and it’s getting so, so old. On top of the list is to simply ignore the arguments that don’t suit you. This is what I believed was happening in our discussion. I realize now that I may well have been wrong and I apologize.
With that out of the way, let’s get back to the real subject. I’ll start by giving you some background info on my team. I’ve been playing this game only since June of this year (but don’t worry, I understand it well enough for this discussion), so yes, I still have a weak team, 25xx TP. I have only just reached camp level 12 to be able to create 3* heroes. This means that my team is built up from the 3* and 4* heroes that I just happened to receive first: Tyrum, Wu Kong, Kailani, Kiril and Belith. I also have Bane, but I replaced him by Tyrum who came in later. This means my team has a couple of particular trades:
- I’m depending quite heavily on yellow tiles with two yellow heroes and red tiles are worthless to me
- With two healers and Kailani on my team, it is heavy on the defence and has very little ‘punch’ as long as Wu Kong’s special ability is not activated
- Wu Kong is a special case on itself with his Gamblers Stance
Each of these trades make my team more dependable on luck. I realize this very well. Give me too little yellow tiles and I’ll lose from a much weaker team, give me a lot of yellow and I’ll wipe out a much stronger team with ease.
But is that a problem for our discussion? I don’t believe that it is. Since I don’t have many means of changing my team, my team has been a pretty constant factor. And that is exactly what you want in statistics: as little other influences on what happens as possible.
Okay, numbers. Needless to say that I haven’t been counting so far. I have some ideas, but it’s complex and getting a really complete picture will almost take a scientific study. But here a completely unexpected problem arises.
I wrote my first post after more than a full day of utter misery in my raids. I’m not one for wasting raid energy, so I must have played at least 20 of them and added to that I used a blue bottle simply because I couldn’t believe what was going on. So 26 raids and in a vast majority I was not only defeated, but crushed with 4 or all 5 of the enemies still standing. And in the vast majority I had no means what so ever to do anything about it. This was the moment that, after many weeks of doubt about all the extremely good and extremely bad raids constantly bundled together, I came to the conclusion that something was definitely wrong and that I came to this forum.
And it was around that time, that the raids changed completely. Ever since, I haven’t had a single raid where the board was largely locked up for a longer time, let alone whole series of those raids. I’ve had many close and enjoyable fights. I’m losing some of them, but never in the completely powerless fashion anymore that happened so often before. Literally not a single one. I’m winning a number of times, but only once I had one of those raids where I thought I was going to lose, but was saved by an unexpected massive combo. This is how it’s supposed to be.
I don’t have a clue as to why this is happening. I can almost hear you say: perception. But no. Perception only enlarges actual events, it rarely creates non-existing events. Your perception may tell you that it’s been raining all day, where in fact it was just 60% of the time. It still has been raining a lot, just not as much as you think. Likewise perception may well have made me see that day as worse then it actually was, it still was a day full of getting slaughtered with my hands tied to my back. I’ve been thinking about the update that came after the season 2 update. It was around that time, but I’m not sure at all anymore if it was installed on that exact moment. Something else that has been changed is that I’ve finally started to upgrade Wu Kong again, after waiting for the right items for quite a while. But I can’t see how that would be connected. And no, I do not believe that some admin saw that I was on to them and flipped a switch
Anyway, the problem is that there isn’t much to count now. I have been making screenshots of the boards at the start of each raid though for reference, in case it should change back again. Other than that I can’t do very much at the moment.
I have been thinking about randomizers though. I assume that each single tile is randomized. And changed under certain conditions (*). Theoretically a buggy randomizer could scatter the tiles. But only in one direction. Let’s assume that the board is build up in the horizontal direction, then it could theoretically minimise the number of horizontal matches. However, if the number of vertical matches is minimised as well, then not only does the randomizer have to select a different tile from the previous one too often, it also has to select a different tile from the 7 tiles earlier too often (same column, previous row). Though not completely impossible, this seems highly unlikely to me. Hmm…
(*) Somebody here said that the developers have stated that the boards are completely random, but if they were, then very often some tiles would be automatically fired off as soon as the board appears. This doesn’t happen (fortunately), so a randomly determined tile is corrected when it causes a row of three with the same colour. This presumably happens by randomizing again until there’s no match of three or more tiles anymore, but it still breaks perfect randomizing.