Raid revenge- Against a lower rated opponent (Make the System of Revenging Feel Fairer) – Get as many trophies back for revenge as you lost

Yes. That is it precisely.

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Where do you want your happy?

If anyone wants, I will happily chat about Elo’s break through system for hours.

But it is not his system it is the MMOs implimentation.

The question is were do you want your happy?

Must fight opponents selected by the algorithm? Rewards are based largely on raid energy spent.

A.I. defense always has the advantage? Rewards are based on building up a good defense team like classic tower defense games, but run by the A.I.

Player attack always has the advantage? This is the system the Devs have currently gone with. Reroll for easier/ harder opponent. Reroll for better food, iron or recruit rewards. Reroll for more trophies gained or less trophies lost.

My personal opinion

I think Revenge does not fit with the core concept of raids in Empires.

However, Revenge is now solidly intertwined with Empires. When Book of Heroes tried to fix the Haste stat, the players revolted and the stat was reverted. Revenge, and other parts of Empires, may be unbalanced or out right broken, but better to change the game balance going forward than to nerf parts of the game players have heavily invested time.

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You’re misreading what I’m saying, I think. Under the modification I’m proposing, the equal-trophies match will yield a 70% win rate for the attacker.

The difference between what I’m proposing and the current system is, under my proposal, your trophies will vary around their current level if you’re winning 70% of your equal-trophies attacking raids. Under the current system, you’ll shoot up if you win 70% of equal-trophies attacking raids. The current system only arrests your trophy rise when you fall to an equivalent 50% win rate in equal-trophies attacks.

You’re matched based on ELO rating, with the target matchup being equal-trophies on average. If it was just a predictor rather than the agent of deciding who to match, you’d be correct. As long as your matches are uniformly drawn around your current rating, and as long as you aren’t getting better or worse than your competition, your win rate will be 50%

The other point is, the whole probability structure moves together. There isn’t one predictor for weak matches and a different one for equal-trophies matches. Winning 90% of attacking raids when you’re 381 trophies higher produces the same result as winning 50% of of attacking raids at equal trophies.

So if you win more than the predicted percentage, you move up the ranks and match with stronger opponents. Your rise only stops when your equivalent equal-trophies win rate falls to 50%. And vice versa if you win less than 50% of equal-trophies attacks.

What you’re calling variance comes from the K factor (gain term) that SG has chosen to use. It controls the magnitude of shift in predicted win probability based on the outcome of a match.

They have chosen a K of 61, which is pretty noisy.

This is inaccurate on two fronts for E&P. First, the attack/defense asymmetry means that if you start out at your “logged out for a while” trophies level, you will be dramatically stronger on attack than your trophy level suggests. You’ll rise quite quickly, because you’re winning way more than 50% of your equal-trophies matches.

Even in a normal ELO environment like chess, what you’re saying is only true for people whose ability has plateaued. The main way you win more than 50% of the time on equal-trophies matches is by improving over your equal rating cohorts. If you get better, you win more than the predicted rate and rise in rating.

This is the way ELO is supposed to work. Significant shifts in rating are supposed to indicate actual ability change, rather than just a change between attacking/defending.

My main complaint is that the attack/defense asymmetry in this game means ELO doesn’t work as designed in E&P. The see-saw pattern we observe of rising very high in rating when on attack, then falling in rating on defense, is a symptom of this problem, not the problem itself.

What I’m proposing to do is to correct the math so that the equal-trophies expected win rate for attackers matches the de facto measured equal-trophies win rate. This is a very normal thing to do. If you look at ELO ratings systems that cope with “home court advantage”, this is exactly how they do it. Our attackers in this game always have a “home court advantage.” Why not adjust the math to account correctly for this?

This is wrong. I’m not changing the K factor at at all. If you look at the math in my previous post, you’ll see I’m actually adjusting the expected win rate for attackers at equal trophies. And this will produce a durable shift in where people settle out.

There are lots of things the devs haven’t tinkered with that could be improved. I’d say, rather, that they consider it to be working well enough not to prioritize changing it. That’s not necessarily the same thing as “satisfied.” Of course, suggesting an easy change like this might make it palatable to actually prioritize making a change.

Then again, it might not. I suspect sales of raid energy to people trying to ride attacker’s advantage to #1 probably accounts for a tidy profit every month. Never kill the goose that lays the golden eggs :slight_smile:

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Reading a defense team

In my opinion, you are forgetting that any user can view a match and reject it.

By making the defense team lower in trophies, effectively stronger, more players will reject the match and simply re roll the match.

Especially with the heavy incidence of tanking in Empires, players quickly learn to decipher enemy teams based on power, stars and special skills, regardless of their supposed trophies.

In my personal opinion, in the end, your proposed modification would cost more food, cause more re rolls and not have the effect you intended.

Re rolling an obvious loss

In my opinion, you are confusing a Elo rating system based on set matching with an Elo rating system based on optional re rolls.

Your rise stops when the number of re rolls becomes more odious than the trophies, and other rewards, gained by continuing to raid.

You are suggesting devaluing the trophies of the defense team so it matches with weaker attackers. This will lead to more attackers viewing the team going “Gorram that Guinevere, I am out of here” and rerolling.

Asymmetry and noise

In Book of Heroes, a live PvP ( shudder ) with set Elo matching ( no re rolls allowed ), there is an interesting asymmetry in several of the the six class match ups.

Example
War Mages destroy 95% of Shadow Walkers but Justicars destroy 95% of War Mages. Since it is live PvP ( shudder ) you must pick one of your heroes ( think teams in Empires ) BEFORE you are matched and you cannot change your hero ( team ) after you are matched. Though you can forfeit the bout. However forfeit come with several penalties like losing a substantial amount of raid energy and all rewards ( both winners and losers get the same rewards but rewards are based on arena ).

While I deliberately re roll raid matches to consume excess food in Empires. Not only is the penalty for rejecting a ratings match inconsequential, it is often desirable to the user. Which does violate one of Elo’s base assumptions.

But that Book of Heroes extreme asymmetry between classes just contributes to rating noise. While a 3000 trophy War Mage will have a higher win record against Shadow Walkers and a lower win rate against Justicars, the War Mage will still destroy most 500 trophy opponents - if they are not new or tanking - regardless of class.

The asymmetry between attack/ defense in Empires just contributes to rating noise.

Example:

What the devs said “equal match up results in a 70% win”, players look for easy matches. So many players who would have lost in a set match up, re roll.

But the A.I. is not allowed a re roll if the attacker is too strong. Even though the attacker is allowed to change all five attacking heroes AFTER the match is made.

Really your Empire rating is a combination of five heroes on your defense team and the 200+ heroes on some people’s hero roster.

What is the REROLL percentage on equal rating match ups? I would love to see a distribution of re rolls based on standard deviations from an equal rating.

Not sure which one is the K factor. Is it the sub equation that decreases as a player progresses in matches and a season progresses?

Because the one that decreases as a player progresses in matches produces a durable shift in where people settle out.

In my opinion, you are duplicating that sub equation.

I will agree with two out of your three statements.

Guess. Which. One. I. disagree. with.

Dead horse

This has been lots of fun ( not being sarcastic ).

But I think we just killed the horse, chopped it up in to sub atomic components and transported it to a parallel dimension.

I will call this a “We definitely agree to definitely disagree”.

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Sold.

Thanks for the thoughtful discussion and analysis! Your example, and your concern about the rerolls, definitely give me some food for thought. I really appreciate it when someone is willing to take an idea, shake it, and kick the tires. I can’t tell you how much I appreciate having you on the forum. IMO you’re an incredible asset to the community.

Just in the interest of clarification:

What I’m calling the K factor is the 61 they multiply the win/loss probability by to produce an update to trophies.

…number 3? What do I win? :smile:

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“An Small Giant‘s NO Prize” signed by Petri

Excelsior!

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I don’t think the revenge is fair. The way it is built in the game I don’t do. It is hard to find a revenge that you earn more trophy’s than you loose. The revenge should be the right to get the trophies you lost back. Let the actual amount of trophies based on the score to the raids and change the revenge. Nowadays you stay with many trophies for about 10 minutes after you disconnect. Then you have to revenge players that will give you most of the time between 10 and 20 trophies. This is not fair. Loose 40 and get back 10. Change this and the game will be more dynamic and players will analyse better who to fight.

From a philosophical perspective, one could say that anger and vengeance always causes one to lose a part of themselves and thus never fully recover who they were.

Also I’m not a fan of this idea, the person who takes the risk of initiating the raid should get some benefit for taking the battle to someone (especially when they are outmatched against an opposing Defense but still attack them)

I’m pretty sure that I should be laughing at this, so apologies if you were doing some deep thinking here…

But tagging onto this, from a technical perspective, it breaks how the ratings system works. @Andrepc think about it this way - if you’re a big fish, you need to eat other big fish to stay strong. If you’re a little fish, you only need to eat other little fish to stay strong. If a little fish eats a big meal, it’s going to grow more than if a big fish eats a little meal.

Trophies are a rating system, nothing more. If you can’t earn the trophies back fighting bigger fish, then you didn’t deserve to be rated so highly. So to get back to @voidstrike’s zen… I’m at peace with being rated low platinum. In fact, I get frustrated when I push up into high platinum because the matchups are too difficult for me, and I end up wasting raid energy to bring my rating back down to where I can fill chests efficiently. I’d rather just forfeit cups for revenges sometimes.

This greed for the trophies always make me smile. Like they mean anything :joy: The goal for a player should be the victory with the most two important things which come with it: 5 heroes in the chest and the resources.

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If you win against a stronger opponent you deserve more trophies and vice versa.

The current system is fair because a higher number of trophies usually means a better team setup.

Team Power means nothing (at least not that much), I have seen teams with 4200+ TP with a very poor sinergy that are a piece of cake.

And I also have faced opponents with less TP than mine, but really really tough to beat.

They definitely deserve those trophies.

So to me the changes you are proposing don’t make a lot of sense, sorry.

No, it’s not that hard.

Whoever beat you that took from you less than 30 trophies will give you more on revenge.

Let me explain my case with numbers. I could reach 3000 trophies. When I disconnect the first ones to attack me will receive 40, 50 trophies. In 10 minutes I will be around 2550, 2600. Now the players that look for a revenge will receive 10 trophies. This is not about how strong or weak you are. This is related to how long this player disconnect.

If you reach 3000 trophies (or cups), you will climb to the top positions in the leaderboard, meaning you have a strong enough team to beat pretty much everyone.

From there, almost every player that challenges your defense team (raid or revenge) will be theoretically weaker than you (because they will most likely have LESS trophies), so they will get more trophies for the victory.

If you go and revenge their raids, and they still have LESS trophies than you, you still get less trophies back, because you are facing a weaker enemy.

You want to get more trophies in your revenges? sure, revenge ONLY on people that took 30- trophies from you, this means they already had more than you when raided, so you will get more trophies back than you lost.

Its about how many trophees your opponent has. If they have more than you , you get more if they have less you get less. I used to wait until jeg Can get back as much as they Got from me​:blush::blush::blush:

I think to combat raid baiting, you should only be able to use the defense team defeated in the revenge battles. Poof! No more raid baiting. So if a player is level 30, using a junk team as defense team, another player comes in and beats that junk team, then the level 30 junk team should be all that’s available for the revenge battle.