Raid revenge- Against a lower rated opponent (Make the System of Revenging Feel Fairer) – Get as many trophies back for revenge as you lost

Why is it when we get raided we revenge we get we still loose the majority of our points. If I am hit by a lower score like a 3400 vs my 3700(not sure how this happens so often) I lose 48 trophies and when I go back and raid them usaly killing them within 1min with no damage to me (yes this is the same team that beat me) do I only get 18 trophies back. It makes no sense. Either the raid algarythem is screwed up or there are cheat codes or simmalar in the works. If this is how you set it up it is absolutely stupid. When raiding if you do beat a higher power for sure get a large reward. But if that player revenges you and wins they should get what they lost back at a minimum. If they are stronger than you then what you lost plus a % of the diffrance between your team scores eg. 3700(them) 3400(you) 300 so 10% per 100 diffrance so 30 % more of their trophies. So you origanaly lost (for ease of calculation) 30 you would get 39 if you won the revenge. But if they were lower 3400(them) 3700 (you) you just get back what you lost. 48 for 48. How many people out there thi k this makes more sense than the present system?

Cup gains and losses depend on current cup counts, not team powers. All depends how many cups you have and how many your opponent has

6 Likes

yes and no. The number of trophies is part of it but your win loss is based on power as well. as for current cup count i disagree. Other than it applying to the tier that you are in. And even then it sometimes seem not to matter. And none of that is relevant to my issue. its not the number of trophies that you lose in picking a fight. it is when you are revenging. the rewards and lack there of is the issue. If you are beaten by a lower score you lose big time. but when you revenge you get not even half of you losses back. eg 51 trophies lost on them raiding and 19 trophies gained when revenged. This is lame.

The number of trophies you can win in a revenge is based on the trophy differential, and nothing else. Attacks are the same.

The other rewards, namely food and iron, are based on what the player has in their Watchtower. Revenging immediately after they raided you will tend to mean little is in their, since they likely will have recently emptied it. If you revenge later, you can get more from them.

This does a good job explaining how trophies work, if you’re interested in the logic and math behind the system — and is also the reason why a system where you got back the same trophies when revenging as you lost wouldn’t work:

3 Likes

I see what you are saying and I agree with it. What I feel should be changed is how the trophies and only the trophies as I don’t think the other stuff matters to the game play once you reach LVE 20 (10 on barracks) on everything. I don’t feel it fair or equal when a player works hard and makes it to say 2400 trophies and loses 210 trophies when attacked not revenged by 4 lower lve players and can only get 79 trophies back. The food and iron are a what ever. As for the Arpad Elo system for attacking sure for revenging no. I think a simple system of if lower level beats you and you revenge you get only what you lost back. If higher level beats you you get back what you lost plus a percentage based on spread. It’s not as fancy but it would be a better out come for all.

You’re essentially trying to imagine a system where it’s easier to win trophies on an initial attack than on a revenge, it seems.

It’s a good question for someone like @Gryphonknight or @Garanwyn whether that would even work within an Elo system. My gut sense is that trophy counts would be fairly stagnant if people were constantly just winning back all the same trophies they just lost.

But I guess my bigger question is this — why do you feel differently about the net loss of trophies when losing a defense and winning a revenge vs. those you lose when raided to begin with? That same system is how you got your own trophies to begin with.

(And I do mean this as a sincere question, I’m trying to understand what about the current system makes it feel unfair on one side and not the other.)

3 Likes

It would be a broken system for sure. Current system works just fine and has for 2 years…

1 Like

I think it would break the system too, but to be fair, there are shortcomings in the current system in the sense that any momentary snapshot of trophy count and ranking bears little relationship to skill or team strength. But people do seem to end up hovering into a stable range for a given defense team.

This helped to demonstrate that, I think:

2 Likes

Revenging a lower rated opponent

You answered your own question the trophies were +18 / -48 for you and +48 / -18 for your opponent.

If you want more than +18 trophies, pick an enemy with a higher rating.

Unless you have a PhD in statistical analysis, I am not being sarcastic, you are unlikely to improve Elo’s math.

Raid rewards are a whole different discussion and the balance between fun, grinding, F2P, P2P, etc. is an interesting one.

Trophy distribution at each tier of team power

What was interesting about the data collection was not Defense power to trophy ratio - that is flawed from the beginning because this is an MMO - but the statistical distribution of trophies for each tier of team power. An interesting analysis of opponent pool, tanking, raid rewards and Wanted mission hero chest reset timer.

3 Likes

There’s actually a very easy modification that would correct for the “home-court advantage” that attackers have.

This gets a little technical

ELO assumes that the probability of win for people with equal trophies is 50%. But the devs have said the true number is more like 70%. This means we need a home-court advantage factor to adjust the equation.

The core ELO equation says that:

P(attacker beats defender) = 1/(1 + 10^(Trophies(Def) - Trophies(Att) )/400)

But we’re going to need to add a “home-court advantage” adjustment factor, F, to account for the fact that equal cups gives the attacker a 70% chance of win, instead of a 50% chance of win.

P(attacker beats defender) = 1/(1 + 10^(Trophies(Def) - Trophies(Att) + F)/400)

When the players are at equal cups in E&P:

Trophies(Def) - Trophies(Att) = 0
P(attacker beats defender) = 0.7

So, making these substitutions into the equation:

0.7 = 1/(1+10^(F/400))
1/0.7 - 1 = 10^(F/400)

We can simplify, because:

1/0.7 - 1 = 1/.7 - 1 = 0.429

So:
0.429 = 10^(F/400)

We take the logarithm of both sides:

Log10(0.429) = (1/400)*F

F = 400 * Log10(0.429)

F = -147.2

This means we should treat the defender as though they had 147.2 fewer cups than they really do when deciding how significant a win actually is. Here’s an example of how this adjusts things:

Attacker Trophies Defender Trophies Assumed P(win) current Assumed P(win) Corrected Current Trophy Gain For Win Corrected Trophy Gain For Win
2000 1500 94.68% 97.65% 3.25 1.44
2000 1600 90.91% 95.89% 5.55 2.51
2000 1700 84.90% 92.92% 9.21 4.32
2000 1800 75.97% 88.06% 14.66 7.28
2000 1900 64.01% 80.58% 21.96 11.85
2000 2000 50.00% 70.00% 30.50 18.30
2000 2100 35.99% 56.75% 39.04 26.38
2000 2200 24.03% 42.46% 46.34 35.10
2000 2300 15.10% 29.33% 51.79 43.11
2000 2400 9.09% 18.92% 55.45 49.46
2000 2500 5.32% 11.60% 57.75 53.92

The bottom line is that the defender is effectively 147.2 trophies weaker than their trophy score would suggest, due to attacker advantage.

So SG should use an “effective trophies” for the defender of (Current_Trophies - 147.2) in the calculation for figuring trophy gain/loss in a raid.

We’d see a lot less motion in trophies overnight if SG made this change. Indeed, they’d tend to be fairly stable until people actually improved their game or improved their team.

The SG speed-of-change factor of 61 in the calculation is probably also too high, but that’s a discussion for another time.

5 Likes

You are correct, that is in fact a simplification of Elo’s Bell curve assumptions on win/ loss/ tie that is close enough for this discussion.

But.

Game developers want that error, intentionally. The attacker must always have an unreasonable advantage. The trick is finding the percentage that makes the most players happy without sacrificing income.

This is not professional sports this is a game.

2 Likes

This actually doesn’t change the built-in overwhelming advantage at equal cups at all; it enshrines it.

In essence, your cups will settle out at a point where you are winning 70% of your matches under this modification, instead of the algorithm trying to drive you up the rankings to the (unreachable) 50% win point that the current algorithm does.

This change would makes things even “better” from the getting-easy-matches perspective, because you rise in cups more slowly when you win, and drop in cups much faster when you lose, moving you down to where you legitimately can win 70% of the time.

2 Likes

Even when I win, although, I may not win back all my cups I still win more hams and steel than you took. So as far as I see it I’m glad ya raided me because overall…I’ve won and I can color stack the next guy and win more cups

2 Likes

Win record

What?!

That is not what the Devs or Elo said.

The Devs said matching ratings the attacker wins 70% of the time, not the attacker wins 70% of the time.

Elo’s math does not drive you to 50% win, Elo’s math tries to PREDICT 50% of your wins and 50% of your loses ( hence the Bell curve of the win/ loss/ tie assumption). If Elo’s math drove you to 50% wins it would have much higher variance. Instead of +30/ -30 rating per match it would be +750/ -750 rating per match.

Using an Elo based rating the only way you can win more than 50% of the time is if you are 2400+ rating OR you can choose you opponent.

In Empires we can choose our opponents.

Example
Deliberately lose to an opponent that costs you 48 trophies
Beat three opponents that gain you 16 trophies.
You now have a 75% win record and the same rating when you started.

Nightly loses

Your complaint seems to be people are losing too many trophies over night.

So your solution is to adjust the defender so it has less trophies for matching. Effectively making the defender stronger. So the player wins less trophies than they should and loses more trophies than they should. Or to put it another way, matching based Elo rating deflation.

Devs could easily do this by doubling the defenders HP or doubling time for 1 raid energy recharge or changing the hard limit for matching to plus or minus 10 rating.

Self Correctly Algorithm

But regardless, it is only temporary.

Similar to 3000+ scores after Barracks was introduced, your new normal would self correct to the 0- 3000 range. The underlying principle of a self adjusting rating forces this result. You are just suggesting tinkering with the per match variance.

This is very similar to the fallacy that Field Aid (WR) favors the other side, in fact it favors both sides equally but make war less stabby ( a technical term).

In my opinion your change would be similar to Field Aid (WR).

More choices

The Devs could adjust the ratings so 0- 1000 rating was the target for the algorithm, and the hard cap for matching was plus or minus 500 rating, this would flatten the curve and allow more opponent choices. With more opponent choices you could easily increase your win rate higher than 75%.

Devs are satisfied

The Devs have chosen the current raid matching algorithm because it produces a satisfactory daily ratings movements. If it did not, after 2 years of use, they would have tinkered with the algorithm.

2 Likes

It’s simple. It seems lately that lower level teams are defeating higher level teams. I do alot of raiding. And yes I work on lower trophies and higher raiding, vice hier level higher trophy gains. So if I am revenged on by the players that I defete and they defete me then sure they should get the higher reward. That is not the issue I have. It is when a lower level hits a higher level it seems lately that they always win. I have lost more in the past two months to teams that I normally defete then before. I am not the only one to notice this. Maybe it’s just me.

I wouldn’t even qualify that with “lately.” I know I’ve been routinely blowing away teams 200-1000 tp stronger than my attack teams for months.

Raiding hugely favors the attacker. At least if you know what you’re doing.

Probably not always, but if their raid records are like mine, I’d bet it’s around 70% of the time, or even a tad higher. I definitely beat stronger teams far more often than not.

Have your defense team and your attack teams been constant along the way?

I’m just wondering if part of that might be that you’re in a little bit different trophy range than you were more than a couple months ago, which might affect the sorts of heroes the revengers have to work with against you.

You might also be seeing more cup dropping/raid bait defense teams, perhaps, where people are intending to be beaten so they can revenge easily.

2 Likes

I have done nothing but improve my defense. It is the same team and I am usaly between 2200 and 2400 cups. I am not talking about when I raid. Yes I know about Tha baiting. Fully accept that. I am talking about when I get attacked. Teams that two months ago could not touch my then weaker team are now blowing me out of the water. Then when I go raid them in a revenge I get less Than half the trophies back. Like I said before it is the revenging not the raiding. When I pick a fight and I lose or am beaten in the second round oh well. I take the loss. That’s part of raiding. I expect that. But I have a hard time with this low-level team first beating me when this seems unlikely not impossible just not as often as it seems to be now, and then not being able to win back what I lost. Sorry if I’m not clear in what I am trying to say. With the Raiding the system is great. You select what you want to risk and you roll the dice. Then if you picked a lower level opponent and they revenge you sure they should get a good reward. But when a low level hits you and wins then you revenge you should get the trophies back. No more than what you lost just that amount. That’s all I am saying.

Ok, got it. I thought you were also talking about you getting revenged too.

Sorry for creating more confusion, that was my bad.

 

Of course we don’t really know what team attacked, since we can only see the defense. And obviously hardly anyone uses their defense team for attacking in the 2200-2400 cup range.

But I get what you mean, I think, which is basically a player whose roster overall is probably weaker than yours.

 

This make sense to me. I’m in the same 2200-2400 trophy range roughly, and I typically get matched with a lot of 3700-4050 tp defense teams that I’m beating regularly with 3300-3450 tp attack teams.

And just for context, my Defense Team is 3500 tp.

 

I get this philosophically, it feels more fair.

I’m just not sure how it would work in practice, since weaker attack teams can readily beat stronger defense teams.

 

Using myself as an example, a few minutes ago I won 3 raids in a row against defense teams 500-600 tp stronger than my attack teams. I won +48, +50, and +46 trophies for those raids.

Given the trophy amounts, I guess Elo thought my odds weren’t so great. :man_shrugging:

 

Now, my Defense Team is clearly way weaker than their Attack Teams are likely to be. And we already know a weaker team can beat a stronger one anyway.

So in all likelihood, if each of those players revenged me and I lost all of the trophies, I’d always just end up right back where I started.

Plus I’d lose plenty on defense too. After all, we already know a weaker team can beat a stronger one.

And my Defense Team is handing out :cookie: to pretty much every passerby.

 

So What’s It All Mean?

My feeling is that while this feels unfair when you’re revenging, it’s also what makes the whole system work when you’re the one on the attack side of the equation.

Not being able to reclaim all of your lost trophies from a revenge — and having to get more back by attacking a new opponent — is what makes the system work, I think.

 

Does that make sense?

1 Like

Yes you have made it clear. I not a fan of the system but I now have a better understanding. Between you and Gryphonknight things are clearer. I still think there is room for improvement but I’ll leave that to the Devs. I see what you are saying how people would not progress with what I had suggested. Thank you for taking the time and your patience.

1 Like

You’re welcome, and glad it’s helped a bit!

I think you’ve identified the core “request” for the devs, too — make the system of revenging feel fairer.

How exactly that could work while still allowing players to progress, I’m not sure. But I think that’s what you’re ultimately after.

1 Like