So I have bought and worked my way thru 6 summons on Atlantis and I have received in the same order mnessus-chochin-kelile then mnessus-chochin-and wait for it kelile. The odds are beyond astounding for that happening. So as far as calling the a random number generator call it a predetermined computer system
I’ll leave it as an exercise for @Garanwyn to consider the odds, but it seems unusual to suggest that it’d be a fixed sequence of three heroes in particular.
Is that what you’re thinking?
Why do you believe the odds of that sort of outcome are beyond astounding?
There are 7 Atlantis 3*, and a 51.2% chance of getting one on a draw. So the chance of getting a specific Atlantis 3* on a draw is a whopping 7.31%
There are 22 S1 4* heroes, and an 11.9% chance of getting one of them from an Atlantis draw. So the chance of getting a specific S1 4* is 0.54%.
So let’s look at your draw sequence:
Getting two random Atlantis 3* and a random S1 4* in your first 3 draws has a probability of:
51.9%^2 * 11.9% * 3 = 9.62% chance.
That part isn’t surprising at all. It’s the second part that seems surprising. So let’s look at that.
Getting exactly the same heroes in the same order thereafter has a chance of:
7.31% * 7.31% * 0.54% = 0.00289% or around a 1 in 350 chance. It’s not all that rare at all.
Even looking at the overall draw together gives:
9.62% * 0.00289% = 0.000278%, or around a 1 in 360,000 chance
It shouldn’t be a common outcome, but 1 in 360,000 is also not an astronomically rare outcome.
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And reply’s like that absolutely make you look foolish. You have the right to your opinions but at least keep them civil. You will catch more fly’s using honey instead of vinegar. @Garanwyn was ASKED for the odds so DONT hate the delivery person because you dont like the answer.
1 in 360000 odds with a million plus player base means this probably happens once per Atlantis portal.
It’s also worth noting for that context that @Garanwyn pointed out that the second repetition of heroes is obviously what was attention-getting — and that’s a 1 in 350 chance, which is actually quite high.
The fact that the specific sequence of Mnesseus-Chochin-Kelile-Mnesseus-Chochin-Kelile would be fairly rare (although not insanely so) isn’t hugely important, since it’s just the repeated sequence that was noticeable.
It could have been a different sequence of heroes repeated, and still seemed as odd.
I’d guess this class of repetition happens plenty during Atlantis, but things like 30-pulls make it a lot harder to see, since most of us aren’t scanning our 30-pulls for odd patterns.
That’s what I’ve been saying but the people too busy sucking up to the game aren’t listening.
Speaking of not listening, have you tried any of the 100 or so posts of advice you’ve been given yet?
The 1 in 360000 was for any random 2 Atlantis 1 Classic 3* repeated sequence.
The specific sequence the OP got would have been higher -
.00289% * .00289% = .000017% or roughly 1 in 6 million.
Assuming 1.5 million players, half of whom make an Atlantis summons, half of whom make a 10-pull: this exact sequence would be expected once every 16 months.
Too bad you are so busy ranting you can’t do any listening. Apt name btw.
No, that’s wrong, unless you are imagining trying to answer the question:
“I want to draw exactly Mnessesus–Chochin–Kelile–Mnesseus–Chochin–Kelile, in that precise order, in my next 6 draws.”
But then the repetition is irrelevant. That would be exactly the same chances as drawing the very normal-looking:
And it is likewise exactly the same chance as drawing the truly outlandish-seeming:
Or any other such combo. The chances of drawing any specific heroes in a specific order are very very low. This is why we don’t do the analysis that way.
Ah yes, you’re right. I misinterpreted what the percentages represented.
Probably not a good subject for a late Saturday night.
@zephyr1 what in my post got it flagged?? Or was it someone NOT liking what was said??
@Rohn I’ve restored your post and addressed the flagging.
Don’t take it personally, I was flagged twice too, and @Garanwyn got one too.
Reposting from earlier:
It was a revenge flag
I like your math, but
it should be 1 in 35’000 here, right? (1/0.0000289)
same here, it should be 1 in 36’000’000 chance. (1/0.00000278)
Hello @Bullcrap007, I’ve had the same thing happen to me. It’s not common but it does happen. Maybe instead of getting angry at our Mods, whom have NOTHING to do with SG, you take a summon break? The Mods are merely players that give us their free Time for no payment, just the love of the game to sustain them, and help 100’s if not 1000’s of players each day.
I’ve gone through the vicious cycle of Chochin, gato, Melia, Chochin, Melia, Gato for more AR’s than I can count (I’m not a good counter). I thought I’d be Proteus and Wilbur’less forever.
But this time, after several Gato’s, Melia’s and Chochin’s a miracle occurred!! Wilbur and Proteus back to back!! SG was even kind enough to throw in an extra Proteus for my troubles!!
Point being, RNG is gonna RNG. Odds are odds, sometimes they do go your way, sometimes not. But eventually you WILL get what you seek, it’s just a matter of patience. Here to luck on your next AR!! May Sweet RNGesus smile down upon you