Proof of elemental chests (loot) being random

Can anyone (PLEASE) comment with some type of thread of proof that elemental chests are random
I have an alliance member that continues to comment that if you fight levels (hard and higher WE cost) with bosses of the coordinated color … you get better loot.
So one of my other alliance members just fought season 1 level 23-2 to fill a nature chest … two greens per fight…
please help… need proof

@Dan,
Here you are : Elemental Chest Frequency - days tracking and results > estimated between 4 to 16 days

That person is the one who should prove it.

3 Likes

I can’t see that harder enemies would increase your RNG in any way? But if it makes him feel better, why not do it for science and track his rewards? If they are continually better than standard, maybe he’s on to something that no one ever figured out before?

P.S most likely he’s wasting WE…

4 Likes

I doubt the staff will answer the question if tagged, but they do appoint game specialist: @Kerridoc

2 Likes

In our last AMA session with the lead developer, he reaffirmed that to the best of his knowledge existing sources of rare mats hadn’t been adjusted (up or down). So the burden of proof belongs with people who claim otherwise.

7 Likes

There is only one known dataset on this subject, which @Eddard has (had?), containing 500 samples. His conclusion was that there was an increased probability of loot from filling chests on strongerboss levels.

That said, the dataset itself hasn’t been published, so it’s impossible to comment on the statistical significance of the conclusion. At 250 low-level and 250 high-level fills, the probability values would need to be at least several percent different to be statistically significant.

6 Likes

if this was true the devs would definitely have mentioned by now that there was an easy way to improve them given the sheer number of comments and threads complaining that they suck

Lol you must be new here. The devs don’t owe us anything.

2 Likes

The keyword is BOSS LEVELS not “higher levels”. The data shows an INCREASED CHANCE for better loot but I am still skeptical because the margin is not wide enough to be considered a rule.

2 Likes

If you give the data to @Garanwyn , he can determine whether the margin is statisticaly significant or not.

I just got bad loot from holy chest which I farmed in 10-6 boss level… 3 silver token, merely 20 gems and 10 emblems… only 1 unfarmable 3*…

2 Likes

TL;DR - elemental chests are random now.

puts on dad sweater and takes a knee

Let’s get a little personal.

The main reason I stopped collecting and would consider the data 100% irrelevant as of today - “various bug fixes and game improvements” in update notes. Maybe it’s a little too “conspiracy theory” but I know my game experiences and the length of time that I have played; during that time there was 100% without a doubt improved loot from filling elemental chests on boss stages (within the first 6-8 months after game was released) and after that the declined started and it seemed to coincide with frequent “various bug fixes etc” in update notes. I have been playing online supported games A LONG time and am no stranger to stealth nerfs - all it would take would be to move decimal points around or make big numbers smaller. Becaise pf these beliefs adjusts tinfoil hat, I will not share “new” theories and data mining that I have found.

As for “the data”, it is mostly gone because of reasons.

Again this is just my personal belief/experience but I have been playing since a few weeks into release (Hel was still hotm.) I fill my elemental chest in the easiest way possible these days and don’t pay attention to the level. (I don’t use loot tickets to fill it though)

Hope this helps.

5 Likes

There is no sample that I can look at?

Military member. Moved 3 times since I gathered data. Data was on paper as it was easier to keep running tallies from screen shots people sent me on line and I’m about as tech savvy as a mashed can of campbells soup. No clue where the papers are and I’m not going to look for them and upload an abomination of partial data. So no. Ibsee where you are going with this line of questioning and it is why I closed the thread. I was getting some nasty msgs regarding the data and lack of publishing it. The fact is that I have too much going on irl to try to convince you all. I respect that you want proof. I just don’t care.

4 Likes

I thought this train of thought was squashed when a beta tester who happened to get an elemental chest before sg copied his in game data over to beta tested it!

He decided to fill the chest in beta with bosses only and then the live game chest as fast as he could with minor mobs!

Result was exactly the same loot in both! Not similar but identical. Meaning a simple conclusion the rolls for loot are rolled at its appearance not its completion

Meaning how you fill it are totally irrelevant. It’s down to simple rng.

I mean the coding required to implement any other method would be crazy.

We all have that friend (I hate him really) that has absolutely extraordinary pull luck using just coins and farmed gems. Who swears if you sit on 1 hand while gently stroking marj’s hair before pulling, your pulls will be better.

*it doesn’t work I’ve truly tried

Then there’s Bob who spent thousands with 1 HOM since they started and only vanilla 5*…

Have the developers coded to games no its all

R’N’G
So rng is your answer

6 Likes

That’s kinda what I was afraid of, since you mentioned PCSing.

I’ve got too much on my plate to even think about tracking it–but if anyone wants data, I’ve got all my chests and can report whether they were filled on elite or regular levels.

1 Like

This will serve as proof, especially if there is a picture, do you have the link about this discussion?

I have some data but the loot is limited to unfarmable AM…

Element Source Date 4☆ 3☆
Nature Raid 6-Mar-19 Mystic Rings Orb of Magic
Nature Monster 16-Mar-19 - Orb of Magic
Fire Raid 25-Mar-19 - Fine Gloves, Warm Cape
Holy Monster 8-Apr-19 - -
Ice Monster 14-Apr-19 Damascus Blade Trap Tools
Dark Raid 24-Apr-19 Damascus Blade Trap Tools
Holy Raid 8-May-19 - Sturdy Shield

Nature (S1:7-5) and Holy (S1:10-6) are from boss stage.
Fire (S1:4-1), Ice (S1:8-7), and Dark (S1:7-4) are from normal stage.

From 4 times filling in boss stage: 1x 4☆ AM + 3x 3☆ AM

From 3 times filling in normal stage: 2x 4☆ AM + 4x 3☆ AM

Lately, normal stages filling give me better AM, the highest stage I use in filling is 10-6 for holy chest but the loot is miserable… However, it cannot be used as proof as the sample size is too small.

1 Like

Unfortunately it was along time ago that I read it. It’s somewhere buried deep in another elemental chest thread

Do you remember which thread it was?

I just spent an hour scrolling thru to find it, as its bugging me as well. But the only reference I found to the post I read was this

so from this you can see that the post was pre may 2018 for it to of been referenced, but I do remember there were screen shots attached. Which would of included beta content, could it of been deleted since new beta rules were implemented

1 Like

Cookie Settings