PROJECT --- Elemental chests loot analysis

Hi guys. As some you may have noticed, with the last update (V.26) some people have received keys in the elemental chests. I just changed the google form to account for that in the future.

Considering that they may have modified loot for other aspects in these elemental chests, I will keep our past data and start from zero from Monday, January 20, a new dataset, which should have the new % drops. Once we have some data, we will be able to check if loot has changed or not, and depending on that if we can actually merge both datasets or not. Hopefully keys will be a regular loot and nothing else will have changed! (unless it is a higher % drop of 4* AM).

Having said that, I am posting the results up to now, with confidence intervals for the % drops so that we can compare in the future.

Surprisingly, it seems like the probability of getting elemental chests is nearly equal between monster and raid positions, which seems odd considering most of people experience.
It must be said though that sample sizes are very small, thus the big confidence intervals.

Well finally, thanks to all the guys who are helping putting their data, and looking forward to the new dataset starting next Monday, so we can see if there are changes, and if there are not, we will be able to merge both dataset which should help to get better conclusions!


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The Confidence Interval is so large… is that 95% CI? :sweat_smile:

How many more data needed to improve the accuracy?

Yes 95%. Unfortunately sample sizes are too low (aprox 50). With bigger sample sizes it should get way better.
I think with a sample size of 150 we would be good

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Ok I’ll try to remember from here on out. Let me see if I can find my fire chest from yesterday

Fire chest 20 characters.

hi @Duckman4903, that information should be put in this google form by you : Google form for elemental chests project .

The reason I ask people to put their data by themselves is that it helps to prevent biases in the data if more than one people starts putting chests from some extra guys (example, I add that chest to the dataset, then some other guy here in the forum adds that chest thinking it is not there yet).
Hope you understand, and thanks!

Ok done. Sorry about that.

all the contrary, no worries and THANK YOU for helping mate!

I can add around 35 chests. Have the data in an excel sheet is there a way I can get this to you in bulk without filling out the google form for each one?

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@Dorkus that would be excellent!
Mail to

Hi @Dorkus, just want let you know that I have one question for you in email and that I merged your data with the previous one! Thanks for your help.
I would appreciate if from now on (next elemental chest) you can start putting the data in the google form once you get the chests (should take 1 min to complete each) as it would help me to get it quicker.
Thanks again!

Is that all from 1 account since September 2019?

It ended up being 40 chests, almost exactly 1 year of tracking (Jan 2019-Jan 2020) with 9.3 days average (min: 4, max: 17) between chests- agrees with the other forum about elemental chests intervals. However, I don’t feel the data shows strong correlation between skipped (gems to accelerate) chests and elemental chests appearing more often- but honestly need someone better at stats to help verify as there are two inputs (both monster and raid skips) to one output (days between elemental chests). Please reply if you can help I would like to write a lengthy forum post about the tracking over a year. Of the 40 chests I only got 6 4* Ascension Materials. So those are pretty darn rare even in rare locations.

There are multiple person tracking their elemental chests in this thread, some of them have more than 1 year of tracking:

@zephyr1 often use gem skip but I don’t know how frequent or which of monster or raid that is skipped. He got 42 in 2019.

In 2019 I got 39 without skipping.

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I have just started tracking at the start of 2020. I have had three so far this month. Does anyone need me to chart my loot for any reason?

If you can put what you got in the Google form it would be great! If you have the date in which you got them even better (it is a voluntary question in the Google form)

I took videos of the loot when I opened the chests so I have the dates and everything

Excellent! Your help will be appreciated!
There is a small group of guys putting their data so we should have a good sample size in some weeks. If you can do it from now on it would be perfect

I am confused on where I am entering my data.

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