# [Primer, Math] Why did I get four Banes from x10 elemental yellow summons or how summons, and indirectly recruit training, works in Empires

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[Primer, Math] Why did I get four Banes from x10 elemental yellow summons or how summons, and indirectly recruit training, works in Empires

This post contains math that may be difficult. Unfortunately summons require the use of probability to explain.

==Background==
Heroes are like your skill tree, or spells, in other games. 1* heroes have attack special skills, 2* add multiple targets or secondary effects, 3* increase the power of secondary effects, 4* add tertiary effects.

5* Heroes ( and eventual 6* ) take 1* to 4* abilities and significantly scale up their power, or adds permanent effects like revive and minions. So heroes, and their special skills, are an inverted pyramid.

Just like no one wants more versions of a first level magic missile spell, no one wants more versions of 1* Heroes.

4*, 5* ( and eventual 6* ) make the Devs the most money and help the most with the current game mechanics. This can be seen by each Challenge event adding two 4* and three 5* heroes ( as of 2018-March, reflect red and reflect green remain unknown )

==Elemental summons==
We donâ€™t know the odds for elemental summons, but we have a good idea of the odds for legendary training. If we could just pull yellow heroes from legendary training, using the known odds for 3*- 5*, the odds would probably look like this:

3* 75%- 18.75% Bane, 18.75% Dawa, 18.75% Gan Ju, 18.75% Kailani
4* 20%
5* 5%

So if we look at ten summons in a row, with the above odds, most sets of ten would have zero= 5* yellow heroes, 1-3= 4* yellow heroes and the remaining 3* yellow heroes. So if you only get 3* yellow heroes ( 1 in 18 chance ) there are not ten 3* yellow heroes so you will get duplicate Banes. It is unlikely we will get ten Banes in a row, and the odds of no Banes is 1 in 8, but we will probably get somewhere between 2- 4 Banes.

We have been told that legendary training odds are better than elemental summons odds, so the odds of getting multiple Banes is actually HIGHER than the above example. Because we can not do colored elite training or colored legendary training, this hides the odds from most users until they try an elemental summons.

==MY PERSONAL OPINION==

===3* heroes===
I would not mind if the Devs added Purple, Yellow and Blue 3* healers to the game.

I do not mind 3* heroes, unless the Devs fix +skill rolls, duplicates are your best chance of getting a 3* hero to 8/8 special skill before 3.50.

===Better Mechanic==

I donâ€™t see the Devs ever changing the odds of summons or training camps, it keeps the game afloat. Personally I budge 3 summons per month ( about \$12 USD ) to try and get the Hero of the Month. I have Peters, so I will use my 3 summons per month on Guardians or Knights. If the month is Pirates, I will use it on elemental red, since I lack Boldtusk 4* heal all with attack buff, Kelile sniper with DOT and Gormek splash damage with defense debuff.

I would actually spend more money if their was some way to see what I was getting first. I donâ€™t know how the Devs would accomplish this, elemental summons appears to be their compromise, but I have suggested the following:

Featured Deal of the Day ( Hero, Ingredient, Ascension Item )

==DATA==
Legendary training hero 3* pool

Yellow four 3*
Red four 3*
Blue five 3*
Purple five 3*
Green six 3*

2 Likes

Would the FhotD change? You say you can buy three of them per day; is that three of the same or three different?

Iâ€™m thinking three different would be a huge leap forward and increase the divide between F2P and P2W.

Actually, being able to purchase any hero would increase that divideâ€¦

No it would not, unless you have ascension materials, the heroes are useless

If you donâ€™t consider ascension materials then the game is already pay to win just like any other free mobile game

I consider ascension materials.

But as a mainly F2P player, it makes a huge difference if I have materials, but no hero to ascend (and can now purchase one)â€¦or if I can purchase a higher-level hero to spend my ascension materials on. They go hand-in-hand.

If you have the material, chances are you have been playing for a while, and deserve the character.

Also how does having a good team impact anyone?

Raids: you play against other players with similar teams

Titans: sure you might get a good score, but the loot is so RNG that youâ€™re never guaranteed to get anything.

My point was that a F2P would be unlikely to obtain a pay-for-play hero. Ah well.

1 Like

Donâ€™t know

If you look at my suggestion for VIP Pass and what what actually implemented you will see the only thing they share is the Devs thought the name was cool. The may have had even the idea for the name months or years before me but wanted to wait for war to add double daily summons and second builder.

P.s. love the dragon & double daily summons.

Over five plus years in my other F2P MMO â€śBoHâ€ť the Devs have thought my ideas interesting many times but implemented them once, and they may have had that idea weeks before me.

A suggestion area has two uses

a) let a frustrated player blow off steam ( I donâ€™t really expect them to add more activity for 3* heroes, especially since their roadmap should include 6* and 7* heroes ).

B) let them identify areas that need work. 1.10.3 is a great response to much of the War feedback.

Then there is my personal one

C) I use the suggestion area to get the damn â€śhouse rules â€ś out of my head since I am unlikely to become a head game designer or live long enough for F2P MMOs to add map editors and sub / private servers.

So looking at A, B, and C, means I seldom work out the finer points ( I will argue the finer points of actual game mechanics until waaay past bedtime as my tolerant and loving spouse knows ) The Devs do this for a living, or they go out of business, I am strictly amateur hour.

However if you want to tweak my suggestion because you think it can be improved, more power to you.

Itâ€™s always fun chatting with fellow enthusiasts.

1 Like

Why you keep talking of 6* heroes?
Iâ€™m missing something?

1 Like

I really donâ€™t see how Empires is sustainable with out adding 6*, and higher heroes

I am sorry if it is confusing, but I start each post by answering a question that is bugging me. Explaining something to someone else is the best way to discover holes in your reasoning and bad math in your analysis.

I am in no hurry to level 5* heroes because I am asking â€śwhat comes nextâ€ť. Since you only recover 10% of XP used to level a 5*, and none of the ascension items, when a 5* 4.80 is used to level another hero, how much of my ascension items and recruits do I want to spend now, and how much to save.

I am not to ragey about the flaw in 3* Hero skill rolls because I see 3* heroes as the 2* heroes of the future.

Once the Devs add 6* heroes, people will expect 7* heroes, but 6* heroes are going to be a bit of a shock to some people. One reason I plan to level my recruit storage after leveling more immediate buildings.

People are complaining about 3* and 4* ascension items.

In my other F2P MMO people demanded a way to merge two 4* ascension items into one 4* ascension item they â€śneeded â€ś. Then where pissed when they didnâ€™t have the two items when 6* & 7* heroes were introduced. I keep this in mind when spending ascension items.

People demanded a way to get more 3* ascension items.

In my other F2P MMO they were excited to finally get it, until they realized they needed it for 6* tier 2 and 7* tier 1. I try to remember this when analyzing a \$20 offer.

In my other F2P MMO people spent money they didnâ€™t have to get 5* heroes & 4* ascension items then where surprised when training camp 30 added mythical training, chance of 6*, and training camp 40 added divine training, chance of 7*. One reason I made Training camp 20 a priority and not Forge 20 or 10* Titans.

All F2P MMOs have to keep evolving and raising the maximum Stronghold and maximum heroes stars. While streamlining the way to get to the penultimate level of heroes and ascension items.

I cannot predict the future, but given Small Giant Gamesâ€™ recent cash infusion I have great hope of years of playing Empires. I try not to hoard, but I do strive for frugality.

1 Like

I think the focus needs to be on keeping the 4* heroes viable not escalating the power structure of the game. That is the path of destruction for games like this. Powerball Z is a great example (show not game). You canâ€™t just keep escalating the power because then vital parts of the game become obsolete. Broaden the game without invalidating parts that have been a vital part of the growth in popularity of the game.

2 Likes

World of Warcraft seems to be doing okay.

I often compare this business model to TV series like Star Trek The Next Generation and Buffy the Vampire Slayer. The journey continues.

Though Tales of the Monkey King and stories about the god Coyote are probably early examples.

The alternative is games like Fallout that stay alive due to mods, map editors and sub/ private servers.

I often compare this business model to AD&D and Warhammer. Crowdsourcing new content and â€śhouse rules â€ś.

Though Go and Chess are probably the original with custom game boards and pieces.

1 Like

Power level?

I hope it stays 4/5* for awhile. Iâ€™m not ready for 6* yet.

2 Likes

If Small Giant Games was larger, I would bet \$20 that Season 2 adds 6* heroes. That would also solve the 5* HotM problem ( letting new players get them without angering the Whales that keep the game afloat ) simply raise the HotM by one star every 12 months.

Because they are small they might wait until Season 3. I would bet \$100 they have 6* heroes before Season 4 goes live.

When they add 6*, they will most likely make 3* ascension items 100% farmable, lower recruits & food needed for elite training or raise recruit & food drops in Season 2/3 map, and reduce build times for level 1- 20 buildings.

1 Like

I wonâ€™t say youâ€™re wrong, only that they havenâ€™t said anything about 6* thus far.

RNG will RNG

The current status of my quest to get BoldTusk ( from most recent to oldest ):

Elemental Red
1- 4* red Kelile
2- 4* red Kelile
3- 3* red Hawkmoon
4- 5* red Marjana
5- 4* red Colen
6- 4* red Kelile

Elemental Red
1- 3* Jahangir
Abort

Elemental Red
1- 3* Azar !
2- 3* Jahangir
3- 3* Nashgar !

Elemental Red
1- Nashgar 3* 1x 290%, 514, Fast- 1,490.6
2- Colen 4* 5x 180%, 728, Slow- 6,552 (Ascension 415, 306, 623)
3- Scarlett 4* 3x 215%, 767, Fast- 3,298.1 (Ascension 436, 289, 591)

1 Like