Getting only 3* héroes from almost everything :camps,invocactions,atlantis I Think is a bug ;you guys should check that out most in my alliance are experiencing the same !!even that Im using my money and Donate it to this game still the same only 3* from everything
What kind of training were used in the camps?
Elite Training is 95% *3.
Legendary Training is 75% *3.
Other kind of training won’t give you *4, let alone *5.
What do you mean by invocation? Do you mean summon? If yes, then which summon?
Elemental Summon is 71% *3.
Epic Hero summon is 72% *3.
There is no *4/*5 in Daily Summon.
How many Atlantis Summon do you did? It is about 71% *3 if I remember it correctly.
Please note that this is probability, even if they said it is 71% *3, there is always chance (Mathematical calculation: 0.71^10 = 3.25%) that you ended up with 10 *3 out of 10 Atlantis Summon. This is not a bug.
Actually, yes. That is a bug. If it is supposed to be 71% and after 7 attempts you have zero, then the next 3 attempts must be corrected to be 100%. The assumption that a particular party will be involved in the sample for 100 attempts(which still could easily be 0% to less than 70 % successful) or until eternity, so that the statistic will measure out is foolish and quite simple to be honest.
“The generation of random numbers is too important to be left to chance.” Robert R. Coveyou
Unfortunately, that’s not how probability works. Every pull on the summon has a 71% chance of getting a 3-star hero. Two pulls, has a 71% x 71% chance of getting two 3-stars, or 50.41%. Three pulls, has a 71% x 71% x 71% chance of getting three 3-stars, or 35.7% chance, up to 10 pulls, has a (71%)^10 chance of only 3-stars, or 3.26% chance.
Think of flipping coins. If you flip one coin, you have a 50% chance of heads. When you flip two, there is only a 25% chance of all tails. The universe does not jump in and say, “Hey, he missed a 50% chance, he should have a 100% chance the second time.”
71% of all attempts will in fact be 3-stars with an unlimited number of pulls. For any finite number of pulls, you are going to get a variance (normal distribution) of results.
I guess you are actually saying that the game should jump in at a certain number of pulls and change the probabilities. Of course then the probabilities wouldn’t be the values that they are advertising any more. (Though they’d be higher than what is advertised.)
The next question is: Why arbitrarily at 10 pulls do we pull in the correction? At five pulls, I expect 3.5 3-stars and 1.5 4-stars. Why not a guaranteed 4-star at 5 pulls? Actually at 4 pulls, the expected value is 2.84 3-stars. Should I get a guaranteed 4-star for every 4th pull?
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I also read somewhere in the forum that if after certain number of pulls you get guaranteed *4 or *5, it will benefit P2W players (those who pay) as they can pull more often, therefore make the gap between F2P/C2P players and P2W players become larger.
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Nice pull, mate! This proves that with time and determination, eventually your luck will come.
Congrats!
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