The number of forum regulars (not talking about your title) is much lower though.
True, but th decision to post is linked to the unusualness of the experience. There are very few 3* msg and n Yelp. If youāre willing to spend the time to post about something, itās because you have something to say (or are bored out of your skull). This selection bias will lead more people with remarkable outcomes to post.
Now that odds are revelead iām curious to see if this happen again.
Someone less lazy then me can calculate the chance something like this may happen with the actual odds?
Both 2 and 3 bonus for a 10x pull.
Itās been a long time since Iāve taken a probability and statistics course, but I believe the chances are:
Exactly 1 HOTM: 10 x (.978^9) x .013 = 11.556%
Exactly 2 HOTM: 10 x (.978^8) x (.013^2) = 0.152%
Exactly 3 HOTM: 10 x (.978^7) x (.013^3) = 0.002%
Can anyone confirm or correct?
Those stats mean nothing. Iāve pulled doubles several times, even a triple. I pulled 3 gravemakers off of a single epic hero token
Wow, since when does one personās experience trump statistical facts?
Those stats look right to me. Thank you, @Rob_DI.
So is it possible to get multiple bonuses from a single pull?
And if it is, it is intended or not?
Btw, you pull double or triple (if itās true) when odds still was unknown.
I want to understand now that are official if something has changed, especially on the HotM matter.
Do you really believe all this? The statistic says that if you have two apples and Iām starving, we have an apple each. The odds of what happens in this game are so irrelevant that you can apply, as much as anyone likes, Ockhamās nava ja. It seems incredible that, as technical as you show, do not even think about the most probable hypothesis with figures and reality in hand, manipulation. Now to darken the post.
Iām saying it happens with frequency. Probably not intentional. I pulled a triple Gravemaker with one pull. Pulled a double Aeron on a 10 pack. Pulled a double Gravemaker on a 10 pack. Others in my alliance received doubles as well. All together in my alliance probably 10 doubles since Aeron. Glitch? Seems odd that anyone would get a double or even a triple.
I totally trust that you and many of your teammates get a double or even a triple bonus from a 10x pull. Many report it, and i think is totally intended.
Different story for a single summon, that in my eyes should give only the chance for a single bonus, not three or even more. And for me this is a glitch. (A very sweet one, but still an error).
Thereās really many people who report a double/triple bonus on 10x pulls, just too much for the odds that we have right now.
If you search around the forum, you find people with 5/6 gravemaker, 7 or so Alberich and like 10 Alasie.
Now consider that you can do 200 pulls and not get a single 5* event hero, but HotM has only 0,3% more chance of appear.
Thatās at leastā¦ strange.
1.3% is always the same even if you make nine hundred trillion attempts you are not garaunteed a win. If you want real statistical cumulative probability just throw an infinity symbol on the end, there is no cumulative luck, sorry.
For people who are lazy like me, there are many loot drop rate calculators out there. Here is one that lets you look at it many ways:
Absolutely correct. But the question was: if you are abou to push the 10x summons button, what are the odds that, after those 10x are complete you will have zero, one, two, or three HotM? Any one of those 10 summons has the same odds as any other, but we can compute the odds of a particular outcome from repeated, independent events.
Take a fair coin, and each flip has 50/50 odds for heads/tails. If you ask me, what are the odds of flipping that coin twice and getting heads both times, I can answer that: 25%. Now, your point is that the odds of the second flip being heads is 50% even though the first roll was also heads. True, but it doesnāt change the odds before the first flip, I know that both flips have to be heads for me to get two heads, so the odds are 0.5*0.5=0.25.
If Iām going to do three flips, then before I start I know that the odds are 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.5^3 = 0.125. After doing the first flip, if itās tails I know the odds are now 0, and itās heads the odds are 25% that Iāll get two more heads.
Or coming at this another way: if you did one million summons, youād be extremely surprised if somewhere along the way the 1.3% chance of getting the HotM didnāt occur, right? Thereās no linkage or causality, but just by sheer volume, youād expect that youād be more likely, after a million summons, to have at least one example of the HotM. I would, certainly. If you āonlyā did a thousand, Iād still be pretty sure that somewhere along the way the 13-in-a-thousand odds would have rolled in your favor. In fact, Iād expect (on average, before doing any summons) you to have 13 HotM after doing 1,000 rolls. Sometimes more, sometimes less.
The maths weāre posting are simply the formalization of this intuition.
No one was arguing that you can add probabilities across multiple pulls.
Getting a HOTM can be modeled as a binomial distribution. Each summon either gives you the HOTM or it doesnāt. Here is a good overview: Binomial distribution - Wikipedia
When people have been talking about cumulative probabilities, they have been referring to the cumulative distribution function in that link. No one has argued that you can add probabilities across pulls.
Rereading that Wikipedia page makes me realize that my calculations above for 2 and 3 HOTM are incorrect as I didnāt use the proper n choose k in the mass function. I actually understated the probability there.
Then againā¦ There being āmanyā people reporting this doesnāt say much. Out of how many people doing how many pulls? And you can bet your sweet ā ā ā people feel more compelled posting their double or triple bonus HotM than single bonus HotM, or pulls without a bonus HotMā¦
And to be fair - Iāve seen a bunch of double HotM pulls (and Iāve got one double myself), but I havenāt seen many triple pulls.
Regarding the ratio between 5* heroes, especially some, wellā¦ Iāll just put on my tiny tinfoil hat and count my 5 Gravemakers, my Guardian Owl and my two Guardian Kongs, while staring suspiciously at enemy teams with Gwens and Guardian Panthersā¦
You cumulative probability believers built this Casino of a game up. Itās a facade. Itās 1.3%. One day someone will pull 10 HOTM in one pull and everyoneās head will explode.
Why would my (if youāre referring to me) or anybody else head explode? If course someone will someday pull 10 HotM in one pull. Thatās statistically sound. Just not very probable.
For me, itās both heartening and depressing when someone posts something, a lot of people read that and then the first person to realize the mistake in what was posted is the original poster.
Welcome to the forum! Thereās an edit button if youād like to fix those numbers.
I was lazy and didnāt want to have to figure out how to do n choose k on my phone. Now that Iām at my computer, since 10 choose 2 = 45 and 10 choose 3 = 120, I think it should be:
Exactly 1 HOTM: 10 x (.978^9) x .013 = 11.556%
Exactly 2 HOTM: 45 x (.978^8) x (.013^2) = 0.685%
Exactly 3 HOTM: 120 x (.978^7) x (.013^3) = 0.024%
I did all the possible combinations in Excel and they summed to 100%. I also checked that the probability of one or more matched the loot box calculator the @General_Confusion posted, so I think this time I actually got it right.