Odds for 4 Star Troops do not meet 10%. Possible bug in code

Dear all,

I recently recognized that the drop rate of 4 star troops decreases a lot. So I asked in several alliances I am in contact with for their statistics. Until now it looks that the odds for 4 Star troops is far below 5%.
Myself having two accounts did not get any the past 8 summons (so in total 16). I know someone making 2x 10 draw and did not get even one. Other data is 1/21, 1/18. All other I asked did not have any statistic but also mentioned not getting any past month or rather 20-30 pulls.
What is your experience and does anybody have statistic proofing that 10% is still current?

THX to all!

A post was merged into an existing topic: 10% chance for Epic Troop

Hi good folks of Small Giant.
Here is issue i have with odds:
I just used 12 epic troop tokens hoping to gain at least one more 4* troop. Unless I’m mistaken odds for that to happen were 90% for a 3* troop and 10* for a 4* troop.
Well like i said - I used 12 epic troop tokens all at once and all I get were 3* troops from all 12 tokens.
So something must be off there. Unless odds are lower I should get at least one 4* troop. And I didn’t get not even one.
So either the odds are lower or I’m not supposed to get 4* troop.
Wich one of that is it?
I’ve been playing for a year now and I got just once 4* troop from all pulls I did so far.
So something must be wrong.

1 Like

Your results are well within the possible outcomes. Each pull is independent of another; each has a 10% chance at 4-star and 90% chance at 3-star.

Similar to a coin-flip, the chance of getting 10 heads in a row is rare - but certainly possible.

3 Likes

That depends on what coin you use. And like you said good ser on 10 flip. Not on a 12 flip.

I think there’s it a 72% chance of pulling at least one 4* in 12 pulls. Could be wrong, but I think the odds are 1 minus the odds of whiffing 12 times in a row:
1 - (.9^12)

And 72% is a far cry from 100%

2 Likes

Probability of zero 4* on 12 random pulls is 0.282 (=0.9^12). Seems perfectly normal to me. BTW, I did several 10-pulls today and got 3* troops – normal SG RNG.

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