Odds disclosed


Finally we see real and official numbers for hero drop rates. I don’t know if it was imposed by someone or a free choice from Small Giant, neverless is really great and a huge step forward in my eyes.

I have to say drop rates seems to be worse that what we were expected, and now i would like to know if training camp odds are similar of our conclusions.


Which odds are worse than you expected?

  • I’ve always used 2.5% as my assumption for 5* from Elemental/Event, which turns out to be spot on.
    I was surprised at the relative scarcity of event heroes to regular heroes in the Event portal; no wonder event 5 are so scarce, and getting a particular event 5* very difficult. (Guardian Panther, I’m looking at you!)
  • The 1.5% from Epic is a little lower than I thought.
  • The 10% for 4* troops was higher than I thought, but exactly what @Avicious assumes in his spreadsheets.

Now the odds of 4* ascension items in the Ascension Packs – those are pretty low, but we’ve always known that. I was surprised about how low “low” was.


Taking in consideration that (for now) training camps odds for legendaries are estimated on ~6%, i was thinking that the portal was about ~4%.

1,5% for normal and 1% for event togheter still are less then half that prevision.

And HotM at 1,3% means only 0,3% better then a event hero, which is totally not the feeling i had.

  1. We have actual odds???!!! Where? How have I missed this? Please tell me where I can see this stuff.

  2. I’m going to quote myself from March this year:

If the actual odds are 2.5% for elemental/event and 1.5% for Epic, then our guesstimates were pretty good.


You see comunication in the release note, and the actual odds clicking on the little “i” (information button) inside every portal.


This makes me very happy. Transparency is good and hiding the odds always seemed just a tiny bit unethical.

I expect that the vast majority of players who come to the forum will be enraged, for reasons I cannot yet imagine. I look forward to finding out what it is that makes them angry about this.