Why would we want you off the list? It just increases all of our odds.
Love me some sexy statistics.
On any single draw, yes, the odds in your example are 1.5%
But in 100 pulls, the odds of getting at least one 5 star are WAY WAY higher than 1.5%
I didnt know we could pick which list to be on. If someone could put me on the only 4* ascension mats and legendary heros from summons and only the gold summons coins it would be greatly appreciated. Thank you!
Let’s say 2% chance to draw a 5 star… and we do 100 draws…
P = probability of drawing one = 1/50
P1 = probability of not drawing one = 49/50
P2 = probability of not drawing in 100 draws = 49/50 ^ 100 = 13.26%
P3 = probability of drawing one in 100 draws = 100% - 13.26% = 86.74%
(Because the probability of something happening and not happening added together is 100%)
So the odds of getting AT LEAST 1 5 star hero in 100 draws, at a 2% chance per individual draw, is 86.74%
This is simple stuff, I don’t get how people don’t understand this.
It took me about 6 months (and well over 100 pulls) to get a single 5 star. Meanwhile, my girlfriend has pulled multiple 5* in far fewer pulls. That is how gambling works. Unfortunately, you and I just have bad luck.
I know how frustrating it is, firsthand, believe me. But that’s RNG. Example: if you flip a coin, you have a 50% chance of the coin landing on heads, 50% tails. In a perfect world, if you flipped the coin 10 times, it would land 5 times on heads, 5 times on tails. But that’s not how it works. It’s entirely possible that you might land on heads 10 times in a row. Even though it’s “statistically” unlikely, it can and DOES happen.
To use another example: your odds of winning the lottery are less than your odds of getting struck by lightning, though the odds of either happening are extremely low. Yet in spite of that, many people DO win the lottery and many people DO get struck by lightning. While many other players in this game are winning the lottery, you and I are getting struck by lightning.
It’s just really bad luck on our parts. It’s not necessarily a game flaw, since no one can prove that “certain” people are being given an advantage on purpose, just as there’s no explanation to why some people are born into wealthy families and other people are born into abject poverty. Life is not fair, and anyone who tells you otherwise is a liar.
For math nerds, I used a binomial distribution calculator to verify Garanwyn’s figures, and with the 1.5% chance on epic plus 1.3% chance of a HOTM came out with the same .34% chance of not getting a 5*.
Garanwyn’s right about the odds; what’s concerning is that there are possibly 5,000 players who got the ‘bad luck’ / raw end of the stick out of their control and in the hands of the RNG gods. Even more so, of the 1.495M who got a 5* about 1 in 200, or about 7,500, had a little sister who fed the resulting Lianna or Sartana draw to level up Sharan.
Please vote for more player control and shards! I fully endorse Garanwyn’s recommendation.
There are two different things going on here, and you’re mixing them together. Let me see if I can help clarify:
The probability of getting the hero type you want on the next pull never changes.
- If you have done 0 pulls, the next pull is (your number) 1.5%.
- If you have done 10 pulls, no matter what you got already, the next pull is still 1.5%
- If you have done 100 pulls, no matter what you got already, the next pull is still 1.5%
- If you have done 10,000 pulls, no matter what you got before, the next pull is still 1.5%
There’s no such thing as “being due.” The probability of getting a 5* on the very next pull doesn’t get better no matter what.
But that doesn’t mean your probability of having gotten a 5* across 10, or 100 or 10,000 pulls is 1.5%
As LucasDAOC walked through, the probability if having a successful outcome really does rise the more pulls you do. You just need to look as the possible outcomes of X pulls to see that this is so. For a detailed walkthrough, I’ll refer you here:
So if you plan on doing 10 pulls at 1.5%, the probability of getting a 5* within those 10 pulls is 14%, which is way better than the 1.5% individual draw probability.
How can these two facts be true at the same time? It’s because the total probability of outcome is a combination of the probability of arriving at the current situation, combined with the probability of the next draw.
So if you did 10 draws at 1.5% probability of 5*, you have a 14% chance of getting at least one 5*, and an 86% chance of getting no 5*.
When you go to do the next pull, then, you’ll be in one of two situations:
- I already got a 5* (14% of the time). The next pull is 1.5% probable, so:
1.5% * 14% = 0.21% of the time I do 11 pulls, the 11th will end me up with an extra 5* (so at least 2)
98.5% * 14% = 13.79% of the time, that 11th pull won’t get me an extra 5*, but I’ll already have at least one in hand
- I didn’t get a 5* yet (86% of the time). The next pull is 1.5% probable, so:
86% * 1.5% = 1.29% of the time the 11th pull will end up with me getting my first 5* of the current draw sequence
86% * 98.5% = 84.71% of the time, you won’t have gotten a 5* in the first 10 pulls, and the 11th will be no help
So, even though the probability of a 5* on that single draw never changes, the percentage of outcomes in which you have a 5* hero after 11 draws is higher than after 10 draws.
I know how it works, probability is a witch. I wish there was such a thing as “being due”. Alas, that is not the case, and as a result there will always be thousands of disappointed players. Which is why my advice for all newer players who can’t seem to catch a break is: just be patient and keep hoping. You’re not guaranteed anything ever, no matter how long you play, but you never know when the next pull might be the one you’ve been waiting for. The irony is that people who finally get a good pull after many bad pulls usually end up happier than the people who start getting bad pulls after being accustomed to getting good ones. So there is that.
My favorite phrase is that the RNG is a cruel mistress
Sorry to here that, that’s some bad luck be the odds are low.
Take a step back from spending for awhile and just focus on making the best of your 4* heroes by maxing them, trying out new combos to test synergy, and using emblems.
Perhaps save up every epic hero token and wait for a seasonal event to come around? The odds are little higher than the regular summon gate.
Do you have atleast one training camp at level 20 yet? The probability isn’t disclaimed but the community agrees that the odds of getting a 5* from the camp is probably set to be at/around 5% — since it seems the large majority of people receive a 5* from it in the range of 3%-to-7% of the time.
I also found my odds are better there. It took me over 30 pulls from it to get a 5* hero from it, but by the time I got to 60 pulls I had pulled 4 - , 5* heroes some were duplicates though. So this means, at that point, 6.66% of my pulls were 5* heroes
D—…Do you realize you just wrote what’s possibly the best comment on this forum? This is the best analogy for this game ever.
But Empires & Puzzels doesn’t present itself as a gambling game. It suggests that with clever gameplay and putting in a lot of efforts you can elevate your chances. Formats like these are likely to be forbidden in our country soon. At least they should clearly state what your chances are if you spend gems (Gems are in fact money)
Soon I will have finished my first E&P year.
For the beginning I decided to go FTP.
I am not a very lucky person in games but still you dont need a 5* hero to play this game.
If you build up to TC 20 as fast as possible, do a lot of quests ( all rare quests ), play all events you will get somewhere. Maybe not into the top 100 but into top 100k for sure.
So I have about 30 fully leveled 4*'s now, around the same amount of fully leveled 3*'s and I am on the way to max 3 5* out of the 4 I have. ( In the last ascencion )
So yes you can get somewhere with clever gameplay and lots of effort only not as fast as the ones who pay or who are lucky!
So keep going, grind hard and may the RNG gods smile on you.
Oh I like playing the game. Especially the wars where you can puzzle which player to attack
with which hero’s. So I am a little sad the wars are suspended now for a tournament where you have little influence in your performance.
Well, guys, no matter what math says, reality is your next pull has a 1.5% chance of summoning a 5* hero… do you feel lucky? I know I wasn’t so far and I’m well over 100 pulls… but that doesn’t mean I don’t enjoy this game, way more than I should
there’s nothing you can do about it boss. I had an alt that i used for a year. TC 20 pulls, token pulls, gem pulls, didnt matter. no 5* heroes. only 8 4* heroes in total. I had enough and closed the account.
Going to have to decide whether it’s all worth it or not. Only you will know. Best of luck.
Then I guess it’s really fortunate that’s what the math says, huh?
Also, “no matter what math says” is probably a really poor way to make decisions. Because math is a tool we use to describe and understand the way reality actually works. If the math and your intuition disagree, it’s worth taking the time to understand why your intuition is wrong.
Truly, the cornucopia from hell. Is it time to start a “Buff Guardian Owl and Guardian Kong” thread yet?