Amen brother. I have stopped paying for “random”. It is wholly rediculous. I will only change my mind if they offer a guaranteed five star hero (random ok) for a set gem price.
As far as probabilities go, receiving 0 and receiving 20 5* heroes for the same number of summons goes into nuh-uh territory. You should send tickets and ask SG to investigate.
(( For example, if the chance of receiving a 5* in one summon is 3% (probably a bit optimistic), then for 300 summons:
- the chance of receiving 0 5*s is 0.01%, and
- the chance of receiving at least 20 5*s is 0.09%
- the good chances are to receive 7, 8, 9, or 10 heroes, more than 10% chance of each
… if my calculations are correct ))
Many players who have not been lucky in rolls make their own luck with Training Camps (Lvl 12, 13, 20) to create their own 3*, with a chance of 4* and 5* at the higher levels.
I’m building a TC20 myself.
Good thought, but been there, done that. Even using the training camp method still getting the same 3* heroes quite often and have rarely gotten a 4* and never a 5*.
The OP makes a great point: even if the odds of getting a 5* on a single pull are reasonable, having long streaks of good or (worse) bad luck isn’t healthy for the game.
@Little_Infinity posted an interesting idea a while back to help tilt the odds after a streak of bad luck: Something a little more certain for your spend - shards?
From this thread, where a number of players have been tracking TC20 results for a while:
The results from 5 days ago:
3* - 545 results - 75%
4* - 135 results - 18%*
5* - 48 results - 7%
This means, of the people reporting in, there have been 48 five stars received, or received about 7% of the time.
Another player who’s calculations I respect said he believes the actual breakdown will be 75% / 20% / 5%.
For a free method to get the best heroes in the game, I’d say 5% is quite reasonable, but that’s me.
• The 5* increased to 7% recently, which should have shifted the 4* back to 18% for the math to work.
I have found that the odds are fairly… fair. I’ve done numerous 10x rolls and received anywhere from 10-3s to 4-5s in a single 10x roll. And believe me… I almost crapped myself on the latter.
It’s like walking into a casino and expecting to walk out a winner every time. If that were the case, there wouldn’t be casinos. You play your odds and hope that they are in your favor. Sometimes you’ll win… sometimes you’ll lose. The more you play, the better the chances you’ll win, but NOTHING is guaranteed.
Now, I’m not saying I’ve not had my fair share of frustration and anger at happenings in the game, but never for the odds I willingly place my gems in. I honestly don’t think there is some algorithm that says, “Let’s screw… THIS GUY!!!”
tkrasky said summons.
Knowing people who got 0 5*s and 20 5*s in the same number of summons is impossible (or very close to).
I was answering this:
(System only bolded “Training Camp” and would not bold “…never a 5*”, but those two items together is what prompted my reply.)
My problem with that analogy is that when you walk into a casino you’re walking in knowing that your chances are the same as anyone else no longer how long that other person has been there, but when you play a game like this, where competition comes into play, there should be some benefit to more time played and progression in the game. It’s sad when someone who has been playing for less than a month and only at level 8 has more powerful heroes than someone who is at level 30 and been playing for 6 months, but that’s what you can expect under the current system.
I’m having trouble believing you, tkrasky. Yes it’s possible to do 1000 summons and not get a single 5* hero, but in practical terms with a finite number of players it is not. What you’re claiming defies the odds.
Well, I’ve personally sat at a quarter slot machine for about an hour without winning anything. I think I lost $40-60. I got up and went about 4 machines down. The guy who sat down behind me put in 3 quarters and won $1000. Fair??? It just wasn’t my time.
I think one son just has spent more. Continuing to draw cards until the hero of the month is gained. I know you claimed and do believe you have spent the same amount but unless I see printouts from the bank account I just can’t believe the statistics of 20 to 0 5* heroes.
It’s more common than you think, maybe slightly ashamed of spending that much. I know two people where one believed they spent the same amount on Hearthstone and one apparently was much luckier than the other. In reality one of them spent over twice as much as the other person and generally has troubles with too much of the paycheck going to in-app purchases.
That said the one with bad luck has indeed had bad luck. You should probably see a 5* if you’ve done 3 10-pulls and it does suck one can get 0 and one 5. I like more guaranteed pay to win methods than this lottery.
Let’s begin by agreein that we don’t know the odds of summoning a 5*, other than the ordering of the odds: epic summons < elemental summons < TC 20. Research suggests odds in TC20 are about 5%. Based on my small sample, I’m guessing the elemental summons odds are about 3% for a 5*. Let’s suppose that’s the number.
What are the odds (under the 3% assumption) of NOT pulling a 5* hero it’s a given number of pulls?
1 pull = 97%
10 pulls = 74%
20 pulls = 54%
30 pulls = 40%
50 pulls = 22%
100 pulls = 5%
So until you do 23 pulls, it is more likely than not that you won’t have pulled a 5* (again, assuming 3% is the base odds).
What I argued up-thread is that there should be some mechanism to reduce odds of long runs of bad luck,
You don’t have to believe me, but I am speaking the truth. Me and my two sons live together and we all play this game and have all played it for about 6 months, we talk about this game often, have created an alliance together and share strategies and such. I have literally seen this happen. One son has gotten about 25 5* heroes and is using them in a lot of cases to level up other players. The other son has literally not gotten a single 5* hero to date and I am in the middle with five 5* heroes. One of our alliance members had been playing the game for less than a month now and has spent only $20 has got two 5* heroes and a few 4* heroes already.
So believe me or not, it is the truth.
I do agree with the concept of not wanting to saturate the game with high level heroes, but it should be set up so that the further you advance your odds get better.
I agree, but the way the game is set up, as pure chance to all players, some one who just starts the game could have a better team than someone who has been playing for a lot longer.
This is a progession game and should therefore be set up that your odds improve as you advance.
Casino games aren’t progression based games, this is. As you advance your odds should increase.
It sucks that a person playing less than a month and only at level 10 has a better team than someone who has been playing for 6 months and is on level 29.
I hear what your saying and agree with it. Regardless of how much money someone spends this is a progression based game, therefore should be designed as such, which means that as you advance your odds increase.
Clearly the way this game is designed is a money based game and not a progression based game.
Missing from your response is that the two sons did the same number of summons (epic&elemental&event).
If it was about the same number of summons, my advice is to contact SG. “Randomness” doesn’t account for that huge difference.
Not to doubt you but. . . ok, I don’t believe you.
Seriously, though, since others have been skeptical about your claim as well on this single issue, the easy way to prove it would be to post a screenshot of your son’s game with all of those 5* heroes together.
… But that was not the primary reason for my reply here, so, moving on…
I think one of the best solutions would be to increase the chance of receiving a 5% by a percentage after every level that you reach or though some other factor on amount of time played. Once you receive a 5*, the percentage goes down to keep people who have played for a very long time from receiving 5* heroes during every summon.
I feel your frustration. The fact that I know my in-game amount of playtime is much higher than many others in my alliance, yet my roster is weaker than others in spite of everything else seeming equal is frustrating. On the flip side, one of them is a little frustrated that he has several 5* heroes but only one 4* troop where I have four of them in different elements.
I am still using a 3* Holy and a 3* healer in my defense team because I have not received even a 4* healer yet and the only 4* Holy that I have is great for missions but not for raid defense. Every epic hero summon except for one, whether through 300 gems or epic token, have given me more than twenty 3* heroes. My nine (maybe?) 4* heroes (mostly duplicates) over time have all been through “Chance for Epic” training.